NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Toronto Raptors	105		Excitement	7.9 [319]		MVP	Fred VanVleet (TOR): +43.2%
Milwaukee Bucks	99		Comeback	5.0 [120]		LVP	Malcolm Brogdon (MIL): -17.2%

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Fred VanVleet	0.43	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.25,0.25,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.43,0.43,0.43	0.19	0.25	0.01	13	81%	0.43	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kawhi Leonard	0.33	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.17,0.14,0.24,0.4,0.4,0.36,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.36,0.33	0.16	0.18	0.01	25	59%	0.35	1	-0.03	9	89%	0.07
Marc Gasol	0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.06	0.04	-0.03	6	29%	0.03	1	-0.01	2	50%	-0.02
Serge Ibaka	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	-0.01	0.00	4	50%	0.00	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Kyle Lowry	-0.02	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.03	-0.01	0.04	11	57%	0.03	2	-0.06	8	87%	-0.01
Pascal Siakam	-0.04	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04	-0.02	-0.03	-0.00	15	44%	-0.03	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.02
Danny Green	-0.05	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.01	3	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Norman Powell	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	7	40%	-0.05	1	-0.01	6	50%	-0.02

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Brook Lopez	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.28,0.28,0.28	0.28	0.10	0.19	0.01	12	64%	0.28	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
George Hill	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.09	0.06	0.01	8	75%	0.15	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Giannis Antetokounmpo	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,0.06,0.06,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.04	0.08	-0.01	18	53%	0.22	2	-0.09	9	44%	-0.06
Pat Connaughton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.04	0.02	0.00	1	150%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Sterling Brown	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ersan Ilyasova	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Khris Middleton	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03	-0.03	-0.09	0.04	-0.03	9	30%	0.01	2	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Eric Bledsoe	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.05,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.01,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.01	-0.05	0.01	14	59%	0.02	4	-0.07	6	100%	0.03
Nikola Mirotic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	-0.01	4	0%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Malcolm Brogdon	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.05,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.17	-0.17	-0.01	-0.19	-0.02	17	53%	0.00	3	-0.17	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.5	3.4	28.2	16.7	28.7	3.4	41.4	150.3
league avg	25.3	2.2	27.8	14.6	27.6	2.2	31.9	132.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL -14.0%

TOR +19.8%

TOR +19.6%

TOR +24.9%

MIL -0.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	TOR	MIL	NBA	TOR	MIL	NBA
this game	16.6	13.5	14.3	108.2	105.3	109.3
season	14.3	13.5		111.5	112.4
opponent	14.3	14.5		104.0	105.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
TOR	15.4	15.6	17.1	18.7	16.6
MIL	12.8	14.4	14.8	12.0	13.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Fred VanVleet	71	71	0.94	-0.44	1.38	0.12	28	-22	50	16.9	16.0	0.87	14.7	9.8	4.88
Kawhi Leonard	83	81	0.50	-0.00	0.51	0.42	3	3	0	16.5	17.4	-0.84	13.1	15.8	-2.76
Pascal Siakam	73	69	0.49	0.01	0.49	0.26	8	-2	10	17.2	14.8	2.40	13.3	13.9	-0.56
Norman Powell	48	48	0.33	0.17	0.15	0.24	3	3	0	16.5	16.8	-0.28	13.6	13.3	0.24
Serge Ibaka	38	38	0.30	0.20	0.10	0.03	9	-3	12	15.6	17.3	-1.66	14.4	12.8	1.64
Marc Gasol	58	56	0.21	0.29	-0.09	0.32	-4	10	-14	17.7	15.0	2.74	13.0	14.2	-1.20
Kyle Lowry	79	75	0.13	0.37	-0.23	0.13	0	6	-6	16.5	17.4	-0.92	13.4	13.7	-0.27
Danny Green	35	32	-0.40	0.90	-1.31	0.10	-17	23	-40	15.1	17.5	-2.48	11.7	14.4	-2.60

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Malcolm Brogdon	69	69	0.20	-0.70	0.90	-0.33	18	-24	42	12.1	17.2	-5.08	16.8	16.3	0.50
Sterling Brown	6	6	0.06	-0.56	0.62	0.03	1	-7	8	18.3	13.1	5.20	16.8	16.6	0.21
Nikola Mirotic	18	18	-0.14	-0.36	0.23	0.19	-11	5	-16	17.5	12.5	4.99	14.5	17.1	-2.63
Eric Bledsoe	67	71	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.30	5	-11	16	12.0	17.1	-5.11	16.9	16.0	0.93
Ersan Ilyasova	20	19	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	0.07	-10	4	-14	15.9	12.8	3.15	17.7	16.4	1.37
Brook Lopez	63	68	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.55	11	-17	28	12.0	16.4	-4.31	17.2	15.3	1.85
Pat Connaughton	22	22	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	0.03	-12	6	-18	18.0	12.1	5.98	16.6	16.6	-0.00
Giannis Antetokounmpo	78	82	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.40	-2	-4	2	12.9	16.4	-3.58	16.3	18.6	-2.32
George Hill	53	54	-0.62	0.12	-0.74	0.03	-22	16	-38	15.3	11.0	4.29	16.6	16.6	0.02
Khris Middleton	74	76	-0.62	0.12	-0.74	-0.39	-8	2	-10	13.2	14.6	-1.44	16.4	17.6	-1.19

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.54,0.57,0.63,0.69,0.73,0.66,0.68,0.67,0.63,0.64,0.7,0.7,0.7,0.62,0.64,0.62,0.6,0.61,0.47,0.46,0.51,0.56,0.56,0.54,0.55,0.6,0.72,0.78,0.79,0.62,0.68,0.69,0.63,0.7,0.6,0.62,0.66,0.52,0.57,0.42,0.18,0.15,0.22,0.31,0.22,0.32,0.09,0
Game		Similarity Score
DET 100, SAC 92	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.64,0.69,0.65,0.64,0.72,0.72,0.78,0.75,0.75,0.76,0.73,0.67,0.69,0.65,0.63,0.61,0.61,0.58,0.54,0.54,0.5,0.52,0.46,0.61,0.58,0.64,0.61,0.62,0.63,0.59,0.67,0.64,0.58,0.57,0.56,0.47,0.47,0.36,0.24,0.18,0.11,0.22,0.24,0.05,0	91.7%
DAL 109, DEN 106	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.57,0.62,0.67,0.66,0.64,0.66,0.65,0.58,0.53,0.56,0.6,0.58,0.53,0.62,0.67,0.65,0.52,0.44,0.44,0.54,0.56,0.54,0.5,0.51,0.54,0.64,0.75,0.73,0.74,0.75,0.72,0.82,0.81,0.71,0.7,0.7,0.43,0.43,0.19,0.1,0.11,0.22,0.31,0.11,0.11,0.27,0	91.4%
LAL 100, MEM 93	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.58,0.64,0.61,0.68,0.7,0.69,0.76,0.76,0.73,0.72,0.76,0.72,0.73,0.71,0.67,0.7,0.69,0.69,0.69,0.7,0.65,0.63,0.6,0.55,0.58,0.7,0.73,0.68,0.68,0.65,0.66,0.6,0.6,0.5,0.57,0.67,0.53,0.42,0.36,0.24,0.4,0.38,0.22,0.33,0.08,0	90.6%