NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Golden State Warriors	121		Excitement	11.3 [46]		MVP	Andre Iguodala (GSW): +54.8%
Houston Rockets	126		Comeback	3.2 [445]		LVP	Stephen Curry (GSW): -46.2%

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Andre Iguodala	0.55	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.41,0.41,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.55	0.13	0.42	0.00	9	80%	0.55	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Kevin Durant	0.24	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.27,0.41,0.41,0.38,0.34,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.33,0.33,0.18,0.18,0.13,0.2,0.2,0.25	0.28	-0.00	0.03	31	62%	0.25	0	0.00	12	100%	0.07
Draymond Green	0.11	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.07	0.02	-0.02	10	68%	0.14	2	-0.03	8	75%	-0.02
Shaun Livingston	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	75%	0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Andrew Bogut	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kevon Looney	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Klay Thompson	-0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.05,-0.03,0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.18,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	-0.00	-0.01	16	47%	0.13	2	-0.14	2	100%	0.04
Jonas Jerebko	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Alfonzo McKinnie	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	3	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Stephen Curry	-0.46	0,0,0,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.09,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.13,-0.19,-0.28,-0.38,-0.38,-0.38,-0.38,-0.38,-0.45,-0.46	-0.13	-0.33	0.00	23	35%	-0.36	3	-0.10	3	33%	-0.02

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
James Harden	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.08,0.11,0.1,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.2,0.2,0.16,0,-0.07,-0.15,0,0,0,0.09,0.06,0.17	0.17	0.11	0.06	-0.00	32	57%	0.33	3	-0.15	8	100%	0.12
Eric Gordon	0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.22,0.16,0.17,0.17,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.11	0.05	0.01	20	71%	0.33	5	-0.17	2	50%	-0.03
Chris Paul	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.03,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.03	0.11	-0.01	8	64%	0.19	2	-0.04	6	83%	0.04
Austin Rivers	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.05	0.09	0.00	6	67%	0.14	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
PJ Tucker	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.02,-0.02,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	-0.04	0.14	-0.00	9	37%	0.13	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.01
Iman Shumpert	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.07	-0.02	0.00	5	83%	0.08	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Nene	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.00	-0.00	0.00	1	60%	0.02	1	-0.02	3	33%	-0.03
Clint Capela	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.05	-0.07	-0.01	9	59%	-0.02	0	0.00	4	25%	-0.06
Gerald Green	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	0.00	3	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1	Total
this game	26.3	3.3	29.0	15.0	29.2	3.5	31.2	3.5	12.2	153.1
league avg	25.3	2.2	27.8	14.6	27.6	2.2	31.9	3.3	15.6	132.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

HOU +29.1%

HOU +14.1%

HOU +52.5%

GSW -38.9%

GSW -6.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	GSW	HOU	NBA	GSW	HOU	NBA
this game	14.4	16.1	14.3	118.6	118.9	109.3
season	13.4	14.8		114.5	114.0
opponent	14.4	15.0		109.3	108.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
GSW	13.5	15.3	13.4	15.1	16.0	14.4
HOU	14.8	14.7	15.3	17.6	23.5	16.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kevon Looney	24	27	0.17	-0.67	0.84	0.08	3	-8	11	15.0	14.2	0.71	16.8	15.9	0.87
Alfonzo McKinnie	15	16	0.09	-0.59	0.69	0.07	1	-6	7	13.5	14.6	-1.03	16.2	16.1	0.14
Shaun Livingston	21	21	0.08	-0.58	0.67	0.14	-2	-3	1	16.9	13.8	3.08	17.1	15.9	1.20
Andrew Bogut	5	5	-0.20	-0.30	0.11	0.10	-10	5	-15	21.6	14.0	7.56	10.6	16.4	-5.81
Jonas Jerebko	7	8	-0.25	-0.25	0.01	0.10	-12	7	-19	20.1	14.0	6.15	13.6	16.3	-2.71
Andre Iguodala	80	83	-0.25	-0.25	-0.01	-0.43	6	-11	17	13.9	16.1	-2.14	16.0	16.7	-0.78
Klay Thompson	89	91	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.39	-3	-2	-1	14.6	13.2	1.35	16.2	15.7	0.46
Kevin Durant	95	99	-0.55	0.05	-0.61	-0.38	-6	1	-7	14.6	12.1	2.44	16.2	15.0	1.21
Draymond Green	87	90	-0.56	0.06	-0.62	-0.53	-1	-4	3	13.7	18.5	-4.75	16.2	15.9	0.30
Stephen Curry	87	90	-0.56	0.06	-0.62	-0.53	-1	-4	3	13.7	18.5	-4.75	16.2	15.9	0.30

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Austin Rivers	57	54	0.62	-0.12	0.74	0.36	9	-4	13	16.5	15.7	0.85	13.0	16.0	-3.04
PJ Tucker	63	62	0.53	-0.03	0.55	0.38	5	0	5	16.9	15.0	1.83	15.5	12.8	2.69
Eric Gordon	90	88	0.35	0.15	0.20	0.32	1	4	-3	16.0	16.7	-0.73	14.6	13.1	1.47
James Harden	91	88	0.35	0.15	0.20	0.47	-4	9	-13	16.5	14.1	2.41	14.1	16.1	-2.01
Nene	17	16	0.26	0.24	0.02	-0.03	10	-5	15	16.9	16.0	0.89	16.9	13.9	3.00
Iman Shumpert	37	37	0.21	0.28	-0.07	0.04	6	-1	7	15.4	16.5	-1.07	14.3	14.5	-0.18
Gerald Green	14	13	0.12	0.38	-0.26	0.00	4	1	3	16.1	16.1	0.01	13.7	14.5	-0.82
Chris Paul	80	76	-0.18	0.68	-0.86	-0.09	-3	8	-11	15.3	18.6	-3.29	14.2	15.0	-0.84
Clint Capela	73	69	-0.26	0.76	-1.02	-0.03	-8	13	-21	15.2	18.3	-3.15	14.4	14.5	-0.15

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.53,0.46,0.43,0.41,0.37,0.36,0.36,0.36,0.43,0.43,0.44,0.48,0.49,0.58,0.62,0.71,0.69,0.68,0.71,0.64,0.69,0.61,0.75,0.75,0.71,0.74,0.69,0.81,0.84,0.82,0.72,0.81,0.85,0.84,0.87,0.78,0.62,0.48,0.48,0.47,0.64,0.6,0.72,0.81,0.36,0.55,0.58,0.54,0.62,0.63,0.78,0.91,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIL 103, LAL 104	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.63,0.69,0.65,0.64,0.52,0.6,0.56,0.64,0.65,0.67,0.65,0.61,0.66,0.74,0.73,0.8,0.82,0.71,0.82,0.85,0.81,0.76,0.82,0.91,0.9,0.88,0.84,0.75,0.74,0.78,0.75,0.59,0.63,0.59,0.65,0.73,0.76,0.63,0.57,0.58,0.54,0.55,0.45,0.67,0.84,1	88.4%
LAL 93, UTA 98	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.5,0.55,0.59,0.57,0.62,0.63,0.62,0.65,0.6,0.64,0.62,0.65,0.6,0.61,0.64,0.64,0.64,0.57,0.61,0.73,0.68,0.75,0.75,0.81,0.79,0.82,0.88,0.84,0.83,0.77,0.72,0.7,0.74,0.67,0.52,0.47,0.47,0.65,0.68,0.47,0.29,0.23,0.42,0.46,0.69,0.79,0.77,0.87,1	87.8%
HOU 99, GSW 102	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.48,0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.47,0.45,0.35,0.34,0.43,0.34,0.42,0.47,0.44,0.51,0.56,0.59,0.64,0.56,0.61,0.7,0.58,0.68,0.75,0.78,0.71,0.7,0.77,0.75,0.72,0.63,0.63,0.73,0.66,0.66,0.68,0.59,0.53,0.64,0.46,0.53,0.62,0.45,0.45,0.28,0.54,0.69,0.64,0.77,0.73,1	87.8%