NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	99		Excitement	4.8 [888]		MVP	Eric Bledsoe (MIL): +13.2%
Milwaukee Bucks	120		Comeback	1.2 [1277]		LVP	Ish Smith (DET): -8.5%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Luke Kennard	0.11	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.12	0.01	0.02	13	66%	0.11	0	0.00	3	100%	0.01
Langston Galloway	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.04	-0.00	0.03	7	64%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Bruce Brown	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	0.00	0.00	4	62%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Khyri Thomas	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	2	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jose Calderon	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Reggie Jackson	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.02	-0.00	0.03	16	50%	0.01	1	-0.02	4	75%	-0.01
Glenn Robinson III	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	10	41%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Wayne Ellington	-0.05	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.01	0.01	10	40%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Andre Drummond	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	0.00	-0.02	0.05	15	53%	-0.02	2	-0.06	4	50%	-0.01
Thon Maker	-0.07	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.02	-0.01	9	30%	-0.07	1	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Ish Smith	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.12	-0.01	-0.04	13	25%	-0.08	1	-0.00	2	50%	-0.00

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Eric Bledsoe	0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.15	0.02	0.04	19	66%	0.15	1	-0.02	3	67%	0.00
Pat Connaughton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.17	0.01	0.10	10	90%	0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Giannis Antetokounmpo	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.09,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.06	0.02	0.03	18	63%	0.12	5	-0.07	5	60%	-0.02
Ersan Ilyasova	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.01	0.00	-0.02	3	50%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Khris Middleton	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,-0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.10	-0.00	0.07	15	63%	0.08	2	-0.05	8	100%	0.02
Brook Lopez	0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.02	-0.00	-0.02	8	44%	0.03	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Tim Frazier	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
D.J. Wilson	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
George Hill	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.06	-0.01	-0.04	7	29%	-0.03	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nikola Mirotic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.01	5	20%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Sterling Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	0.01	-0.01	0.04	5	62%	-0.02	2	-0.02	3	33%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	30.2	2.7	27.3	14.5	27.4	3.3	33.3	138.7
league avg	25.3	2.2	27.8	14.6	27.6	2.2	31.9	132.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL +42.4%

MIL +2.8%

MIL +6.8%

DET -2.2%

MIL +0.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	MIL	NBA	DET	MIL	NBA
this game	16.0	12.6	14.3	99.0	118.8	109.3
season	15.3	13.5		107.5	112.4
opponent	14.3	14.0		104.0	109.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DET	18.7	14.3	18.4	13.1	16.0
MIL	10.1	12.9	12.9	14.6	12.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Bruce Brown	37	37	0.13	-0.63	0.76	0.01	4	-25	29	13.6	17.4	-3.80	13.8	12.0	1.82
Khyri Thomas	3	3	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.09	-3	-18	15	11.7	16.2	-4.51	15.0	12.6	2.44
Jose Calderon	3	3	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.09	-3	-18	15	11.7	16.2	-4.51	15.0	12.6	2.44
Ish Smith	47	46	-0.16	-0.34	0.19	0.14	-10	-11	1	15.9	16.2	-0.28	11.7	13.5	-1.80
Langston Galloway	66	66	-0.16	-0.34	0.17	0.13	-10	-11	1	15.2	17.7	-2.48	12.8	12.2	0.62
Thon Maker	43	43	-0.19	-0.31	0.13	-0.01	-6	-15	9	16.5	15.7	0.83	13.3	12.1	1.16
Glenn Robinson III	28	27	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	0.06	-12	-9	-3	17.8	15.3	2.47	10.9	13.3	-2.43
Reggie Jackson	50	52	-0.34	-0.16	-0.19	-0.11	-8	-13	5	16.4	15.6	0.80	13.4	11.9	1.51
Wayne Ellington	74	75	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.11	-9	-12	3	16.0	16.1	-0.10	12.6	12.8	-0.23
Luke Kennard	72	74	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	0.08	-16	-5	-11	16.6	14.7	1.84	12.6	12.7	-0.05
Andre Drummond	77	79	-0.72	0.22	-0.94	0.22	-32	11	-43	16.7	13.8	2.93	12.1	14.4	-2.27

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Brook Lopez	71	69	0.69	-0.19	0.87	-0.10	27	-6	33	12.2	13.7	-1.56	16.8	14.3	2.54
Khris Middleton	69	68	0.54	-0.04	0.57	-0.17	24	-3	27	12.7	12.6	0.10	16.3	15.4	0.93
Eric Bledsoe	61	61	0.39	0.11	0.28	0.01	13	8	5	12.1	13.4	-1.31	16.5	15.3	1.20
Giannis Antetokounmpo	62	62	0.33	0.17	0.16	-0.11	15	6	9	12.5	12.8	-0.26	16.6	15.1	1.47
Pat Connaughton	66	66	0.26	0.24	0.03	-0.21	16	5	11	12.1	13.7	-1.57	15.7	16.7	-1.05
Ersan Ilyasova	37	36	0.21	0.29	-0.09	-0.03	8	13	-5	12.5	12.7	-0.27	16.0	16.1	-0.06
George Hill	54	53	0.13	0.37	-0.24	0.13	0	21	-21	13.0	12.2	0.79	15.7	16.4	-0.77
Sterling Brown	53	52	0.07	0.43	-0.37	0.10	-1	22	-23	13.4	11.8	1.60	16.3	15.7	0.56
Tim Frazier	3	3	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.09	3	18	-15	15.0	12.6	2.44	11.7	16.2	-4.51
D.J. Wilson	3	3	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.09	3	18	-15	15.0	12.6	2.44	11.7	16.2	-4.51
Nikola Mirotic	26	27	-0.11	0.61	-0.72	-0.02	-3	24	-27	14.0	12.1	1.89	13.0	17.2	-4.11

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.58,0.62,0.61,0.69,0.67,0.65,0.66,0.72,0.72,0.62,0.6,0.58,0.52,0.63,0.56,0.59,0.61,0.61,0.54,0.5,0.58,0.66,0.66,0.76,0.81,0.79,0.89,0.82,0.87,0.9,0.96,0.98,0.9,0.93,0.91,0.91,0.97,1,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIA 81, LAL 106	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.56,0.6,0.63,0.67,0.67,0.64,0.63,0.65,0.64,0.62,0.61,0.56,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.59,0.61,0.61,0.56,0.5,0.48,0.57,0.73,0.73,0.73,0.82,0.8,0.87,0.93,0.96,0.98,0.99,0.97,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.2%
NYK 105, LAC 128	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.52,0.49,0.49,0.56,0.59,0.66,0.66,0.57,0.62,0.62,0.65,0.7,0.6,0.58,0.62,0.69,0.65,0.59,0.54,0.56,0.58,0.54,0.46,0.54,0.69,0.64,0.73,0.81,0.87,0.9,0.92,0.94,0.96,0.94,0.95,0.95,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.1%
WAS 101, CLE 110	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.61,0.6,0.61,0.64,0.63,0.62,0.63,0.68,0.66,0.7,0.68,0.62,0.62,0.54,0.56,0.56,0.59,0.61,0.56,0.56,0.54,0.62,0.72,0.82,0.76,0.81,0.84,0.87,0.79,0.77,0.86,0.9,0.9,0.95,0.88,0.95,0.95,0.96,0.99,0.93,0.93,0.99,0.99,1,1	95.1%