NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	103		Excitement	6.3 [593]		MVP	LaMarcus Aldridge (SAS): +16.3%
Houston Rockets	92		Comeback	1.6 [395]		LVP	Manu Ginobili (SAS): -11.8%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
LaMarcus Aldridge	0.16	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.16,0.17,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.11	0.06	0.01	20	60%	0.19	1	-0.03	3	67%	-0.01
Kawhi Leonard	0.04	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.01	0.03	0.01	20	54%	0.08	3	-0.05	8	75%	-0.00
Jonathon Simmons	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	-0.04	0.07	-0.00	8	44%	0.09	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Danny Green	0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.07	-0.00	0.03	6	92%	0.09	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
David Lee	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	-0.00	2	100%	0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Kyle Anderson	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Patty Mills	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.05	0.00	-0.03	14	45%	0.04	3	-0.06	5	100%	0.02
Pau Gasol	-0.05	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.03,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	8	60%	0.01	4	-0.06	4	75%	-0.02
Dejounte Murray	-0.07	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.09	-0.01	-0.02	5	20%	-0.04	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Manu Ginobili	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.09	-0.03	-0.00	3	0%	-0.06	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Clint Capela	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.05	0.03	0.02	9	67%	0.09	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
James Harden	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.1,-0.05,0.05,0.08,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.16	0.01	0.11	28	64%	0.16	5	-0.11	11	91%	0.02
Trevor Ariza	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.04	-0.01	-0.01	15	57%	0.09	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Patrick Beverley	0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.08	-0.02	-0.04	13	30%	-0.04	1	-0.01	1	100%	0.01
Eric Gordon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.05	-0.04	-0.02	10	41%	0.01	2	-0.08	2	100%	0.02
Ryan Anderson	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.06	-0.03	0.01	4	20%	-0.08	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.00
Lou Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.08	-0.03	-0.00	4	0%	-0.08	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Nene	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.10	-0.01	0.00	5	8%	-0.09	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.4	3.3	27.3	15.8	27.8	2.8	37.3	139.7
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.6	15.7	26.8	2.3	33.5	136.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +42.1%

HOU -4.0%

SAS +11.5%

HOU -5.0%

SAS +5.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	HOU	NBA	SAS	HOU	NBA
this game	15.7	14.0	14.8	106.2	94.8	107.7
season	15.4	13.7		110.1	113.2
opponent	14.9	14.8		108.1	103.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	14.4	17.3	15.2	15.9	15.7
HOU	13.3	14.0	15.5	13.4	14.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
LaMarcus Aldridge	80	80	0.49	0.01	0.48	0.20	10	1	9	15.0	18.6	-3.55	13.7	15.5	-1.75
Danny Green	70	70	0.48	0.02	0.47	0.22	9	2	7	15.7	15.5	0.25	14.8	12.1	2.71
Kawhi Leonard	82	82	0.42	0.08	0.33	0.12	10	1	9	15.7	15.3	0.39	14.4	11.8	2.64
Dejounte Murray	26	26	0.30	0.20	0.10	-0.02	11	0	11	15.0	15.9	-0.90	16.3	13.2	3.16
Pau Gasol	59	61	0.29	0.21	0.07	0.14	5	6	-1	16.4	14.5	1.91	15.2	12.0	3.19
Jonathon Simmons	28	29	0.25	0.25	-0.01	0.10	5	6	-1	18.6	14.5	4.14	13.1	14.4	-1.27
David Lee	33	32	0.22	0.28	-0.07	-0.02	8	3	5	14.6	16.2	-1.60	14.3	13.9	0.37
Manu Ginobili	37	36	0.07	0.43	-0.37	-0.02	3	8	-5	14.6	16.3	-1.68	11.7	15.4	-3.76
Kyle Anderson	4	4	0.04	0.46	-0.42	0.01	1	10	-9	17.0	15.6	1.40	11.5	14.1	-2.64
Patty Mills	66	65	-0.05	0.55	-0.59	0.16	-7	18	-25	15.6	15.7	-0.07	12.8	16.6	-3.78

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Lou Williams	22	21	0.06	-0.56	0.61	-0.06	4	-15	19	11.4	14.8	-3.39	18.1	15.0	3.17
Nene	36	35	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.00	0	-11	11	11.8	15.3	-3.49	14.7	16.2	-1.48
Eric Gordon	69	68	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.16	-4	-7	3	13.4	15.6	-2.27	16.1	14.7	1.43
Patrick Beverley	64	66	-0.36	-0.14	-0.23	-0.16	-7	-4	-3	13.6	14.8	-1.24	16.1	14.7	1.35
Ryan Anderson	60	60	-0.42	-0.08	-0.33	-0.03	-13	2	-15	14.9	12.6	2.37	14.5	17.5	-2.91
Trevor Ariza	92	92	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.17	-10	-1	-9	14.2	11.0	3.20	15.7	14.2	1.54
Clint Capela	61	62	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.18	-11	0	-11	15.3	11.8	3.49	16.2	14.7	1.48
James Harden	81	81	-0.53	0.03	-0.57	-0.12	-14	3	-17	14.8	10.2	4.53	15.0	18.8	-3.78

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.44,0.42,0.41,0.49,0.47,0.53,0.58,0.52,0.54,0.6,0.55,0.58,0.51,0.56,0.52,0.53,0.54,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.42,0.37,0.25,0.28,0.27,0.27,0.39,0.41,0.41,0.21,0.19,0.21,0.26,0.26,0.21,0.29,0.23,0.2,0.09,0.01,0.05,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
SAS 72, CHH 70	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.5,0.46,0.47,0.43,0.45,0.51,0.53,0.62,0.65,0.56,0.55,0.53,0.56,0.6,0.59,0.56,0.54,0.46,0.46,0.41,0.33,0.29,0.25,0.3,0.3,0.32,0.38,0.48,0.45,0.37,0.33,0.25,0.3,0.22,0.21,0.28,0.27,0.14,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0	94.6%
CLE 109, PHX 91	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.49,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.54,0.52,0.5,0.56,0.55,0.65,0.58,0.48,0.44,0.44,0.51,0.51,0.44,0.33,0.37,0.31,0.42,0.45,0.45,0.42,0.41,0.35,0.27,0.19,0.21,0.22,0.26,0.18,0.3,0.19,0.14,0.06,0.01,0,0,0,0,0	93.7%
DEN 91, NOK 81	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.46,0.47,0.43,0.45,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.57,0.57,0.58,0.57,0.55,0.6,0.6,0.65,0.56,0.56,0.56,0.48,0.46,0.49,0.44,0.37,0.4,0.37,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.38,0.28,0.31,0.18,0.26,0.21,0.15,0.3,0.33,0.2,0.09,0.08,0.02,0.01,0,0.02,0.03,0,0	93.7%