NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	91		Excitement	5.7 [699]		MVP	Carmelo Anthony (DEN): +18.5%
New Orleans/Oklahoma City Hornets	81		Comeback	1.8 [340]		LVP	Speedy Claxton (NOK): -17.6%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Carmelo Anthony	0.18	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.03,0,0,0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.12	0.07	0.01	22	61%	0.21	1	-0.02	7	86%	0.02
Earl Boykins	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.02	0.01	-0.01	9	50%	0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Eduardo Najera	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.00	-0.00	4	60%	0.03	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Francisco Elson	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	3	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Greg Buckner	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Earl Watson	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	8	56%	0.06	3	-0.11	2	100%	0.00
DerMarr Johnson	-0.05	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	2	50%	0.00	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Marcus Camby	-0.07	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.08	-0.00	-0.01	10	54%	0.04	5	-0.11	8	62%	-0.01
Andre Miller	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.1,-0.11	-0.07	-0.04	-0.01	13	47%	-0.01	4	-0.09	6	50%	-0.00

New Orleans/Oklahoma City Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
David West	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.04	0.01	0.01	13	55%	0.07	1	-0.03	3	67%	-0.01
Kirk Snyder	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.00	0.00	-0.02	10	52%	0.06	2	-0.05	1	100%	0.01
Arvydas Macijauskas	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Andersen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.02	-0.02	7	48%	0.02	1	-0.03	7	57%	-0.04
Bostjan Nachbar	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.03	-0.04	0.00	8	35%	-0.07	0	0.00	4	75%	0.01
Chris Paul	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.12,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12	-0.12	-0.06	-0.02	0.04	15	46%	-0.04	4	-0.08	9	89%	0.02
Desmond Mason	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.15,-0.15,-0.18,-0.13,-0.13,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.16	0.00	-0.03	9	33%	0.01	6	-0.13	3	33%	-0.05
P.J. Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.08	-0.09	-0.00	9	40%	-0.08	3	-0.08	2	100%	0.01
Speedy Claxton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.18,-0.18	-0.18	-0.15	-0.03	-0.01	8	19%	-0.10	3	-0.08	5	40%	-0.05

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.8	1.7	30.1	12.6	32.2	0.7	36.4	137.4
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +47.5%

NOK -2.7%

NOK -6.7%

DEN +9.0%

DEN +3.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	NOK	NBA	DEN	NOK	NBA
this game	12.8	16.1	15.6	91.0	81.8	104.4
season	14.4	16.3		103.5	101.2
opponent	15.3	15.9		104.1	103.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	13.3	11.8	12.9	13.3	12.8
NOK	19.4	16.5	14.8	14.4	16.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Carmelo Anthony	82	81	0.60	-0.10	0.71	0.22	13	-3	16	12.6	13.8	-1.17	16.2	15.9	0.31
Marcus Camby	67	66	0.52	-0.02	0.53	0.14	13	-3	16	11.7	15.2	-3.53	16.3	15.8	0.53
Earl Watson	47	47	0.44	0.06	0.38	-0.12	19	-9	28	11.6	13.9	-2.39	15.5	16.7	-1.24
Earl Boykins	52	51	0.37	0.13	0.24	0.23	5	5	0	13.1	12.6	0.50	15.4	16.9	-1.50
Eduardo Najera	82	80	0.37	0.13	0.24	0.16	7	3	4	12.8	13.1	-0.29	15.5	18.9	-3.41
Andre Miller	66	64	0.18	0.32	-0.14	0.21	-1	11	-12	13.0	12.5	0.44	16.3	15.8	0.57
Francisco Elson	51	52	0.11	0.39	-0.27	0.11	0	10	-10	14.4	11.1	3.29	16.9	15.3	1.65
DerMarr Johnson	35	36	0.01	0.49	-0.48	0.10	-3	13	-16	13.9	12.2	1.64	17.7	15.3	2.40
Greg Buckner	18	18	-0.10	0.60	-0.71	-0.02	-3	13	-16	13.8	12.6	1.17	15.9	16.2	-0.31

New Orleans/Oklahoma City Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Arvydas Macijauskas	2	2	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.00	0	-10	10	10.5	16.3	-5.76	5.5	13.0	-7.47
Kirk Snyder	54	54	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	-0.09	2	-12	14	17.0	15.1	1.85	13.5	12.0	1.56
Desmond Mason	59	59	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	-0.17	0	-10	10	14.5	18.6	-4.08	12.8	12.8	0.03
David West	71	72	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.19	0	-10	10	16.9	14.2	2.69	14.2	9.2	4.96
Chris Andersen	49	49	-0.26	-0.24	-0.01	-0.14	-4	-6	2	14.8	17.5	-2.66	12.1	13.5	-1.41
Bostjan Nachbar	43	44	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.01	-11	1	-12	17.9	14.8	3.12	12.2	13.3	-1.06
Chris Paul	77	78	-0.34	-0.16	-0.19	-0.17	-6	-4	-2	16.2	16.0	0.18	12.9	12.5	0.35
P.J. Brown	75	76	-0.55	0.05	-0.61	-0.11	-15	5	-20	16.6	14.7	1.84	12.3	14.5	-2.16
Speedy Claxton	65	66	-0.62	0.12	-0.75	-0.16	-16	6	-22	15.6	17.2	-1.67	12.4	13.7	-1.34

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.54,0.46,0.47,0.43,0.45,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.57,0.57,0.58,0.57,0.55,0.6,0.6,0.65,0.56,0.56,0.56,0.48,0.46,0.49,0.44,0.37,0.4,0.37,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.38,0.28,0.31,0.18,0.26,0.21,0.15,0.3,0.33,0.2,0.09,0.08,0.02,0.01,0,0.02,0.03,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
CLE 109, PHX 91	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.49,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.54,0.52,0.5,0.56,0.55,0.65,0.58,0.48,0.44,0.44,0.51,0.51,0.44,0.33,0.37,0.31,0.42,0.45,0.45,0.42,0.41,0.35,0.27,0.19,0.21,0.22,0.26,0.18,0.3,0.19,0.14,0.06,0.01,0,0,0,0,0	93.9%
IND 99, CLE 85	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.49,0.5,0.54,0.55,0.47,0.38,0.43,0.51,0.58,0.58,0.6,0.53,0.51,0.58,0.65,0.56,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.39,0.44,0.5,0.41,0.31,0.3,0.33,0.36,0.35,0.25,0.24,0.34,0.26,0.28,0.3,0.26,0.34,0.14,0.12,0.04,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0	93.9%
LAL 99, POR 86	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.47,0.55,0.6,0.58,0.57,0.56,0.58,0.58,0.53,0.61,0.56,0.47,0.43,0.42,0.41,0.36,0.3,0.34,0.34,0.42,0.39,0.39,0.42,0.38,0.34,0.27,0.23,0.25,0.22,0.26,0.15,0.05,0.07,0.02,0.04,0.01,0,0,0,0,0	93.9%