NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Atlanta Hawks	101		Excitement	8.1 [242]		MVP	Brandon Jennings (WAS): +18.8%
Washington Wizards	109		Comeback	3.3 [572]		LVP	Kent Bazemore (ATL): -18.1%

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tim Hardaway Jr.	0.13	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.05,0,0,0.12,0.05,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.15,0.15,0.13	-0.00	0.09	-0.04	14	54%	0.27	4	-0.14	7	100%	0.08
Taurean Prince	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.16,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.04	0.08	-0.00	8	67%	0.16	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.06
Paul Millsap	0.05	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.12,-0.07,-0.04,0.01,0.05,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.2,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.07	0.00	0.02	14	63%	0.24	5	-0.18	15	93%	0.11
Ersan Ilyasova	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.01	0.02	-0.00	3	33%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mike Dunleavy	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jose Calderon	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.00	-0.01	0.00	2	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Thabo Sefolosha	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.04
Mike Muscala	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.06	0.00	-0.00	6	17%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dwight Howard	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.04	-0.02	0.01	5	60%	0.01	3	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Dennis Schroder	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.15,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.01	-0.06	0.01	21	46%	-0.03	1	-0.06	8	75%	-0.01
Kent Bazemore	-0.18	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.09,-0.09,-0.18,-0.18	-0.05	-0.13	0.00	5	57%	0.03	4	-0.21	4	100%	0.02

Washington Wizards
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Brandon Jennings	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.14,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.19	0.07	0.12	-0.00	5	83%	0.19	0	0.00	2	100%	0.05
John Wall	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.04,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.07,0.07,0.14,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.06	0.11	0.02	20	58%	0.26	4	-0.11	15	80%	0.04
Bradley Beal	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.06,0.06,0.01,0.08,0.16,0.16,0.13,0.14	0.14	0.00	0.15	0.01	27	52%	0.24	4	-0.09	6	50%	-0.06
Marcin Gortat	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.07	0.02	-0.01	10	70%	0.12	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jason Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.01	0.02	-0.00	6	57%	0.07	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Markieff Morris	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	3	37%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.04
Kelly Oubre Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	1	25%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Otto Porter Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	-0.01	7	29%	-0.05	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Bojan Bogdanovic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	7	33%	-0.06	0	0.00	4	75%	0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	33.3	3.2	36.6	15.6	31.3	3.3	41.3	164.7
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.6	15.7	26.8	2.3	33.5	136.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

WAS +41.6%

ATL -25.2%

ATL -2.3%

WAS +44.1%

ATL -8.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ATL	WAS	NBA	ATL	WAS	NBA
this game	14.6	14.2	14.8	102.0	107.9	107.7
season	14.4	14.4		104.2	109.9
opponent	14.9	14.9		108.7	104.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ATL	13.9	16.4	13.5	14.8	14.6
WAS	12.8	13.7	16.5	14.0	14.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dwight Howard	41	40	0.24	-0.74	0.99	0.10	5	-13	18	15.1	14.3	0.76	15.0	13.6	1.40
Mike Dunleavy	14	15	0.18	-0.68	0.86	-0.09	9	-17	26	11.2	15.2	-3.97	12.5	14.5	-2.01
Ersan Ilyasova	35	36	0.01	-0.51	0.52	-0.08	3	-11	14	14.1	14.9	-0.75	12.4	15.1	-2.69
Thabo Sefolosha	8	9	-0.07	-0.43	0.37	-0.01	-2	-6	4	16.2	14.5	1.77	13.8	14.2	-0.44
Dennis Schroder	79	81	-0.21	-0.28	0.07	-0.27	2	-10	12	14.0	17.2	-3.29	14.5	12.8	1.72
Jose Calderon	16	16	-0.22	-0.28	0.07	-0.04	-6	-2	-4	16.7	14.2	2.46	13.4	14.3	-0.95
Kent Bazemore	53	54	-0.25	-0.25	-0.00	-0.25	0	-8	8	13.5	15.9	-2.40	13.9	14.5	-0.66
Taurean Prince	59	61	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	0.08	-13	5	-18	15.8	12.8	2.98	14.4	13.8	0.58
Paul Millsap	70	72	-0.48	-0.02	-0.47	-0.28	-7	-1	-6	14.7	14.4	0.35	14.9	12.4	2.43
Mike Muscala	48	49	-0.63	0.13	-0.75	-0.27	-12	4	-16	14.2	15.0	-0.73	13.8	14.5	-0.66
Tim Hardaway Jr.	72	72	-0.78	0.28	-1.06	-0.22	-19	11	-30	15.3	12.7	2.64	14.3	13.8	0.59

Washington Wizards
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Otto Porter Jr.	47	47	0.78	-0.28	1.05	0.22	19	-11	30	14.5	13.9	0.66	15.4	14.0	1.40
Bradley Beal	88	85	0.63	-0.13	0.76	0.22	14	-6	20	14.3	13.5	0.73	15.3	10.6	4.64
Markieff Morris	40	40	0.61	-0.11	0.73	0.14	16	-8	24	14.9	13.7	1.28	15.0	14.4	0.63
Marcin Gortat	72	72	0.42	0.08	0.35	0.22	7	1	6	15.0	12.2	2.77	14.4	15.3	-0.87
John Wall	84	81	0.29	0.21	0.08	0.35	-2	10	-12	14.5	12.5	2.05	13.8	18.2	-4.40
Brandon Jennings	35	36	0.09	0.41	-0.32	-0.00	3	5	-2	13.4	14.6	-1.15	14.7	14.6	0.11
Bojan Bogdanovic	48	47	-0.04	0.54	-0.58	-0.04	0	8	-8	13.6	14.7	-1.01	14.7	14.6	0.10
Kelly Oubre Jr.	31	28	-0.07	0.57	-0.64	0.22	-10	18	-28	12.2	15.0	-2.82	13.8	15.0	-1.17
Jason Smith	60	59	-0.21	0.71	-0.92	-0.00	-7	15	-22	13.7	14.9	-1.22	14.5	14.7	-0.21

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.46,0.48,0.54,0.63,0.66,0.61,0.57,0.6,0.54,0.48,0.47,0.53,0.6,0.56,0.58,0.66,0.63,0.66,0.66,0.67,0.7,0.73,0.71,0.69,0.69,0.61,0.7,0.68,0.52,0.35,0.23,0.33,0.32,0.34,0.34,0.38,0.29,0.42,0.47,0.59,0.34,0.67,0.79,0.86,0.96,1
Game		Similarity Score
IND 78, CLE 85	0.5,0.49,0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.54,0.53,0.54,0.51,0.47,0.42,0.42,0.48,0.51,0.55,0.62,0.6,0.65,0.65,0.68,0.71,0.69,0.67,0.7,0.58,0.65,0.66,0.73,0.76,0.64,0.58,0.56,0.41,0.28,0.22,0.32,0.46,0.48,0.34,0.33,0.37,0.36,0.59,0.6,0.55,0.72,0.94,0.98,1	91.7%
NJN 87, PHI 91	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.51,0.53,0.55,0.53,0.58,0.6,0.51,0.6,0.62,0.56,0.62,0.53,0.53,0.56,0.64,0.7,0.67,0.7,0.71,0.69,0.64,0.55,0.61,0.48,0.41,0.25,0.27,0.29,0.18,0.22,0.26,0.25,0.33,0.42,0.41,0.6,0.53,0.68,0.78,0.78,0.73,1	91.4%
DEN 96, BKN 102	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.39,0.4,0.43,0.47,0.53,0.55,0.53,0.57,0.58,0.54,0.57,0.62,0.58,0.6,0.58,0.6,0.68,0.73,0.71,0.69,0.58,0.67,0.58,0.68,0.6,0.61,0.58,0.64,0.45,0.45,0.52,0.34,0.37,0.4,0.46,0.48,0.38,0.2,0.32,0.41,0.59,0.54,0.81,0.93,0.98,1,1	90.9%