NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Atlanta Hawks	107		Excitement	6.0 [633]		MVP	John Wall (WAS): +9.9%
Washington Wizards	114		Comeback	2.4 [726]		LVP	Tim Hardaway Jr. (ATL): -13.1%

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Paul Millsap	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.05	0.01	0.03	8	70%	0.13	4	-0.09	11	82%	0.02
Dennis Schroder	0.02	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.03,-0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.12	-0.04	0.06	16	66%	0.09	2	-0.07	6	100%	0.02
Taurean Prince	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0	0.04	-0.00	0.04	11	64%	0.04	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Mike Muscala	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01	0.01	0.00	0.02	5	57%	-0.00	1	-0.00	4	100%	0.02
Mike Dunleavy	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.01	-0.00	2	67%	0.04	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Kent Bazemore	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.00	10	50%	0.02	1	-0.03	4	50%	0.01
Jose Calderon	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.00	0.00	3	33%	0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Dwight Howard	-0.04	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.01	6	44%	-0.01	1	-0.03	4	75%	-0.01
Ersan Ilyasova	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.01	-0.02	0.01	6	60%	0.03	3	-0.07	3	100%	0.01
Tim Hardaway Jr.	-0.13	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.12	-0.02	-0.01	11	26%	-0.09	2	-0.04	5	60%	-0.02

Washington Wizards
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
John Wall	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.08,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.07,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.11	0.01	0.02	24	59%	0.17	3	-0.07	6	100%	0.02
Otto Porter Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.07	0.02	0.01	6	67%	0.09	0	0.00	3	100%	0.01
Markieff Morris	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,0.06,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.07,0.1,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.03	0.08	0.01	19	51%	0.14	2	-0.05	3	100%	0.03
Kelly Oubre Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.06	0.01	-0.02	8	61%	0.09	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Marcin Gortat	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.05	-0.01	0.02	11	64%	0.06	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Tomas Satoransky	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bradley Beal	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	21	49%	0.05	3	-0.05	3	67%	-0.01
Brandon Jennings	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bojan Bogdanovic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	0.01	0.00	8	25%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jason Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.08	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	30.1	3.0	35.2	17.8	30.0	3.4	34.4	153.8
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.6	15.7	26.8	2.3	33.5	136.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

WAS +27.6%

ATL -1.5%

ATL -1.0%

WAS +21.7%

WAS +3.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ATL	WAS	NBA	ATL	WAS	NBA
this game	13.7	15.0	14.8	108.1	112.9	107.7
season	14.4	14.4		104.2	109.9
opponent	14.9	14.9		108.7	104.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ATL	12.6	14.1	13.3	15.0	13.7
WAS	15.0	13.6	14.3	17.7	15.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mike Muscala	26	27	0.34	-0.84	1.17	-0.25	20	-27	47	11.0	14.7	-3.76	16.8	14.4	2.41
Ersan Ilyasova	47	45	-0.01	-0.49	0.47	-0.22	7	-14	21	12.6	14.8	-2.17	13.6	16.2	-2.61
Mike Dunleavy	29	28	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	-0.09	2	-9	11	11.2	14.8	-3.63	14.0	15.5	-1.50
Kent Bazemore	57	56	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	-0.31	9	-16	25	13.3	14.3	-0.99	15.7	14.3	1.37
Jose Calderon	19	18	-0.12	-0.38	0.27	-0.03	-3	-4	1	14.1	13.7	0.39	14.3	15.2	-0.94
Taurean Prince	62	66	-0.25	-0.25	0.00	-0.13	-4	-3	-1	14.1	13.1	0.96	15.8	13.7	2.09
Tim Hardaway Jr.	60	62	-0.48	-0.02	-0.45	-0.07	-14	7	-21	14.0	13.3	0.79	14.1	16.5	-2.43
Dennis Schroder	70	73	-0.58	0.08	-0.65	-0.25	-11	4	-15	14.5	12.0	2.51	15.3	14.3	1.01
Dwight Howard	56	59	-0.61	0.11	-0.72	0.00	-21	14	-35	14.7	12.5	2.25	15.6	14.3	1.23
Paul Millsap	69	71	-0.71	0.21	-0.92	-0.12	-20	13	-33	14.8	11.4	3.40	14.9	15.5	-0.59

Washington Wizards
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Bradley Beal	81	81	0.75	-0.25	1.00	0.13	21	-14	35	14.6	16.7	-2.12	14.3	11.3	3.01
Markieff Morris	78	76	0.67	-0.17	0.84	0.14	18	-11	29	15.2	14.4	0.80	14.6	10.9	3.74
Marcin Gortat	63	60	0.67	-0.17	0.84	0.05	21	-14	35	15.3	14.6	0.71	15.0	11.8	3.16
Otto Porter Jr.	68	64	0.66	-0.16	0.83	0.08	20	-13	33	15.0	15.2	-0.29	14.5	12.3	2.25
John Wall	76	74	0.47	0.03	0.43	0.23	8	-1	9	15.2	14.4	0.81	14.1	12.7	1.41
Tomas Satoransky	5	5	-0.11	0.61	-0.72	0.04	-5	12	-17	16.0	15.0	1.00	10.8	13.9	-3.09
Brandon Jennings	35	34	-0.13	0.63	-0.75	0.17	-10	17	-27	14.9	15.1	-0.21	11.8	14.8	-3.00
Kelly Oubre Jr.	41	41	-0.13	0.63	-0.76	0.34	-16	23	-39	15.5	14.8	0.70	12.7	14.5	-1.84
Bojan Bogdanovic	30	32	-0.16	0.66	-0.82	0.10	-9	16	-25	14.1	15.4	-1.30	11.5	14.8	-3.35
Jason Smith	28	28	-0.19	0.69	-0.89	0.19	-13	20	-33	15.2	15.0	0.23	11.5	14.6	-3.17

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.58,0.57,0.59,0.52,0.57,0.63,0.68,0.65,0.53,0.51,0.4,0.47,0.47,0.45,0.42,0.35,0.34,0.31,0.44,0.39,0.44,0.39,0.46,0.48,0.51,0.61,0.64,0.67,0.79,0.77,0.81,0.9,0.89,0.85,0.78,0.85,0.93,0.89,0.96,0.97,0.98,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.94,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
NYK 98, NOH 106	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.57,0.62,0.64,0.62,0.53,0.59,0.63,0.6,0.55,0.53,0.46,0.38,0.42,0.45,0.44,0.44,0.39,0.31,0.44,0.39,0.44,0.39,0.37,0.4,0.43,0.55,0.61,0.76,0.84,0.85,0.87,0.87,0.82,0.9,0.9,0.87,0.85,0.89,0.92,0.92,0.89,0.95,0.97,0.99,0.98,0.99,1	94.7%
NYK 86, DEN 95	0.5,0.51,0.57,0.58,0.55,0.56,0.51,0.59,0.55,0.55,0.49,0.57,0.56,0.5,0.42,0.45,0.47,0.4,0.43,0.41,0.38,0.41,0.42,0.39,0.39,0.5,0.42,0.6,0.51,0.67,0.73,0.71,0.71,0.75,0.85,0.88,0.85,0.81,0.84,0.93,0.89,0.96,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	94.7%
PHX 90, GSW 100	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.52,0.53,0.59,0.63,0.62,0.63,0.65,0.6,0.53,0.54,0.46,0.42,0.51,0.53,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.42,0.34,0.36,0.42,0.39,0.5,0.52,0.54,0.67,0.64,0.67,0.74,0.86,0.9,0.9,0.84,0.85,0.92,0.9,0.86,0.94,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1	94.2%