NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Oklahoma City Thunder	98		Excitement	7.2 [412]		MVP	LaMarcus Aldridge (SAS): +55.2%
San Antonio Spurs	97		Comeback	1.5 [379]		LVP	Patty Mills (SAS): -28.8%

Oklahoma City Thunder
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kevin Durant	0.16	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.1,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.12,0.16	0.07	0.10	0.01	19	65%	0.28	5	-0.12	5	100%	0.03
Serge Ibaka	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.04	-0.00	-0.05	10	60%	0.07	1	0.03	0	0%	0.00
Steven Adams	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.06	0.03	0.00	6	86%	0.15	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Dion Waiters	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07	-0.06	0.10	-0.04	5	30%	0.09	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Russell Westbrook	0.05	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.05	-0.01	0.04	-0.01	25	50%	0.09	3	-0.05	8	75%	0.02
Enes Kanter	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.01	-0.02	0.00	7	67%	0.06	3	-0.08	4	100%	0.02
Anthony Morrow	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	3	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andre Roberson	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.02	-0.01	1	0%	-0.05	1	-0.02	2	0%	-0.02
Cameron Payne	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.07	-0.02	-0.01	3	0%	-0.04	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
LaMarcus Aldridge	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.17,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.19,0.17,0.17,0.19,0.19,0.16,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.15,0.21,0.33,0.36,0.55	0.55	0.34	0.22	0.01	21	79%	0.55	0	0.00	10	100%	0.11
Danny Green	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.02,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.03	0.04	-0.01	11	41%	0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Boris Diaw	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.01	-0.01	2	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Manu Ginobili	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.03	-0.02	0.00	8	69%	0.07	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Kyle Anderson	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Boban Marjanovic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Tony Parker	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	-0.03	-0.00	9	37%	-0.04	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.01
David West	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.04	-0.05	0.01	8	37%	-0.08	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Tim Duncan	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.11	-0.05	-0.01	8	12%	-0.12	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Kawhi Leonard	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.05,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.2	-0.20	-0.10	-0.11	-0.01	18	37%	-0.13	2	-0.06	2	0%	-0.03
Patty Mills	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.29	-0.29	-0.07	-0.23	-0.01	9	28%	-0.27	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.4	3.3	31.5	17.5	24.4	3.4	36.9	144.5
league avg	24.5	2.3	29.5	15.8	26.7	2.3	33.5	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

OKC +63.6%

SAS -4.9%

SAS -2.3%

SAS -9.6%

OKC +3.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	OKC	SAS	NBA	OKC	SAS	NBA
this game	13.4	16.2	14.9	101.0	100.0	105.1
season	14.4	15.7		111.5	109.0
opponent	14.7	15.1		97.9	104.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
OKC	10.4	13.2	14.8	15.9	13.4
SAS	16.1	15.6	15.8	17.5	16.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Oklahoma City Thunder
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Steven Adams	74	76	0.80	-0.30	1.11	0.45	12	-11	23	13.3	13.8	-0.52	16.3	16.0	0.34
Serge Ibaka	66	67	0.79	-0.29	1.07	0.26	18	-17	35	13.2	14.0	-0.88	16.6	15.5	1.09
Russell Westbrook	74	75	0.58	-0.08	0.66	0.29	10	-9	19	13.8	12.3	1.54	16.1	16.6	-0.48
Andre Roberson	52	52	0.54	-0.04	0.58	0.04	17	-16	33	12.7	14.2	-1.47	16.0	16.4	-0.38
Kevin Durant	86	86	0.48	0.02	0.47	0.40	3	-2	5	12.9	17.3	-4.33	16.4	14.6	1.78
Dion Waiters	48	49	0.19	0.31	-0.12	0.63	-15	16	-31	14.0	12.9	1.04	16.5	15.9	0.59
Enes Kanter	38	37	-0.19	0.69	-0.88	0.13	-11	12	-23	14.2	13.0	1.19	15.7	16.5	-0.79
Anthony Morrow	30	28	-0.29	0.79	-1.08	0.06	-12	13	-25	14.7	12.9	1.88	15.9	16.3	-0.40
Cameron Payne	17	15	-0.41	0.91	-1.31	0.09	-17	18	-35	12.6	13.6	-0.95	15.1	16.4	-1.28

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Boban Marjanovic	7	8	0.11	-0.61	0.72	-0.07	6	-7	13	13.4	16.4	-3.00	13.0	13.5	-0.47
Patty Mills	43	44	0.04	-0.54	0.59	-0.40	15	-16	31	15.9	16.4	-0.51	13.7	13.2	0.54
Kawhi Leonard	72	72	-0.10	-0.40	0.29	-0.43	11	-12	23	16.0	16.9	-0.89	13.7	12.7	0.96
Boris Diaw	19	18	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	-0.11	-1	0	-1	16.6	16.1	0.52	11.5	13.9	-2.37
Kyle Anderson	13	12	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.00	-5	4	-9	14.0	16.6	-2.56	11.3	13.7	-2.40
Manu Ginobili	44	45	-0.16	-0.34	0.17	-0.19	1	-2	3	15.9	16.5	-0.52	13.4	13.5	-0.10
Tim Duncan	56	55	-0.25	-0.25	-0.01	-0.19	-2	1	-3	17.3	14.7	2.57	12.9	14.1	-1.13
David West	23	23	-0.26	-0.24	-0.03	-0.12	-5	4	-9	15.9	16.3	-0.40	13.3	13.5	-0.23
LaMarcus Aldridge	84	85	-0.43	-0.07	-0.37	-0.32	-4	3	-7	16.0	17.5	-1.44	14.0	9.5	4.49
Tony Parker	53	53	-0.52	0.02	-0.55	-0.11	-14	13	-27	16.7	15.6	1.06	13.2	13.7	-0.54
Danny Green	71	70	-0.62	0.12	-0.74	-0.42	-7	6	-13	16.5	15.5	0.98	13.9	12.3	1.63

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.5,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.43,0.39,0.34,0.3,0.29,0.3,0.31,0.3,0.34,0.34,0.47,0.42,0.46,0.51,0.56,0.58,0.59,0.51,0.49,0.44,0.46,0.35,0.31,0.3,0.27,0.29,0.21,0.2,0.18,0.21,0.33,0.47,0.46,0.48,0.29,0.14,0.09,0.17,0.29,0.34,0.19,0.16,0.06,0.16,0
Game		Similarity Score
TOR 94, POR 92	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.43,0.42,0.35,0.37,0.35,0.3,0.25,0.29,0.3,0.34,0.4,0.38,0.47,0.51,0.58,0.53,0.49,0.42,0.46,0.44,0.5,0.46,0.4,0.34,0.36,0.24,0.29,0.26,0.19,0.27,0.3,0.28,0.26,0.16,0.19,0.11,0.09,0.14,0.15,0.22,0.26,0.16,0.15,0.16,0	91.9%
SAS 102, ATL 92	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.42,0.42,0.37,0.36,0.37,0.35,0.37,0.38,0.39,0.35,0.4,0.42,0.47,0.44,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.42,0.46,0.44,0.37,0.34,0.4,0.36,0.42,0.33,0.26,0.17,0.24,0.31,0.33,0.4,0.5,0.52,0.38,0.33,0.27,0.31,0.24,0.09,0.07,0.04,0,0,0	91.4%
POR 92, OKC 87	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.43,0.4,0.38,0.43,0.39,0.36,0.35,0.38,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.36,0.4,0.44,0.48,0.56,0.54,0.54,0.41,0.51,0.5,0.54,0.4,0.3,0.27,0.21,0.26,0.23,0.24,0.27,0.37,0.4,0.38,0.3,0.21,0.2,0.32,0.36,0.15,0.28,0.39,0.22,0.09,0.08,0	91.3%