NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	92		Excitement	9.5 [99]		MVP	Goran Dragic (MIA): +26.2%
Toronto Raptors	96		Comeback	6.8 [255]		LVP	DeMar DeRozan (TOR): -28.6%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Goran Dragic	0.26	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.26,0.26,0.26	0.07	0.22	0.03	12	77%	0.41	4	-0.15	2	100%	0.01
Luol Deng	0.07	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.06	0.03	0.02	9	67%	0.09	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Gerald Green	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.02	0.03	0.00	3	67%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Josh Richardson	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	0.01	0.02	4	56%	0.02	2	-0.05	1	100%	0.01
Amar'e Stoudemire	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Justise Winslow	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	0.00	2	50%	0.00	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Udonis Haslem	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.04	-0.04	0.00	2	50%	0.01	2	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Dwyane Wade	-0.15	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.16,-0.13,-0.13,-0.17,-0.17,-0.19,-0.19,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.12,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.13,-0.23,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.11	-0.05	-0.01	17	45%	-0.03	5	-0.12	4	50%	-0.03
Hassan Whiteside	-0.17	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.13,-0.13,-0.17,-0.17	0.00	-0.16	0.02	7	68%	-0.00	4	-0.17	5	60%	-0.03
Joe Johnson	-0.19	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.06,0.08,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.18,-0.19	-0.04	-0.19	-0.04	22	38%	-0.19	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jonas Valanciunas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.22,0.22,0.22	0.22	0.06	0.16	0.00	9	75%	0.29	2	-0.07	2	50%	-0.02
DeMarre Carroll	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.17,0.17,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.17,0.17	0.17	0.13	0.03	-0.01	13	66%	0.17	0	0.00	6	67%	-0.03
Terrence Ross	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.00	0.05	-0.00	11	45%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Patrick Patterson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.01	0.03	-0.00	3	33%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
James Johnson	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bismack Biyombo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Norman Powell	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	-0.01	4	20%	-0.05	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Cory Joseph	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07	-0.07	-0.03	-0.03	0.01	7	50%	0.00	2	-0.07	2	100%	0.00
Kyle Lowry	0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.2,-0.2,-0.24,-0.29,-0.29,-0.29,-0.19,-0.19,-0.23,-0.23,-0.26,-0.26	-0.26	-0.16	-0.10	-0.00	22	36%	-0.14	4	-0.12	6	50%	-0.06
DeMar DeRozan	0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.16,-0.3,-0.3,-0.24,-0.29,-0.29,-0.29,-0.29	-0.29	-0.10	-0.18	0.01	24	36%	-0.29	0	0.00	8	25%	-0.26

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1	Total
this game	24.1	3.0	35.1	16.7	26.1	3.5	40.2	2.4	21.4	172.6
league avg	24.5	2.3	29.5	15.8	26.7	2.3	33.5	2.2	17.3	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA -4.7%

MIA -24.6%

TOR +41.2%

TOR +34.9%

TOR +3.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	TOR	NBA	MIA	TOR	NBA
this game	15.6	17.2	14.9	93.9	100.0	105.1
season	15.5	16.1		104.5	107.2
opponent	14.8	15.1		104.6	103.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
MIA	14.5	15.0	17.5	17.0	12.8	15.6
TOR	16.2	19.3	18.5	16.4	14.5	17.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Josh Richardson	51	50	0.52	-1.02	1.55	0.29	8	-12	20	15.4	15.8	-0.40	17.0	17.4	-0.45
Gerald Green	28	27	0.35	-0.85	1.20	0.12	8	-12	20	17.9	14.7	3.21	16.7	17.4	-0.64
Udonis Haslem	17	14	0.32	-0.82	1.14	0.12	7	-11	18	16.8	15.4	1.41	16.7	17.3	-0.57
Amar'e Stoudemire	8	7	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	0.07	-6	2	-8	14.5	15.7	-1.20	17.1	17.2	-0.06
Justise Winslow	26	26	-0.26	-0.24	-0.03	0.09	-12	8	-20	16.3	15.3	0.96	17.4	17.1	0.31
Luol Deng	77	76	-0.39	-0.11	-0.27	-0.39	0	-4	4	15.6	15.6	0.04	17.0	17.8	-0.76
Joe Johnson	77	75	-0.46	-0.04	-0.41	-0.40	-2	-2	0	15.2	17.2	-2.02	17.2	17.1	0.07
Dwyane Wade	71	69	-0.65	0.15	-0.80	-0.53	-4	0	-4	15.4	16.1	-0.65	17.2	17.1	0.07
Goran Dragic	66	66	-0.84	0.34	-1.19	-0.58	-9	5	-14	14.7	17.5	-2.82	16.9	17.8	-0.92
Hassan Whiteside	69	70	-0.99	0.49	-1.48	-0.70	-10	6	-16	15.9	14.8	1.10	18.0	15.2	2.80

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jonas Valanciunas	67	71	0.99	-0.49	1.47	0.49	17	-13	30	17.5	16.4	1.07	16.2	14.1	2.01
DeMar DeRozan	76	78	0.74	-0.24	0.97	0.47	9	-5	14	17.1	17.6	-0.57	15.2	17.0	-1.76
Kyle Lowry	86	85	0.72	-0.22	0.94	0.43	10	-6	16	17.1	17.7	-0.56	16.1	12.5	3.53
DeMarre Carroll	73	73	0.68	-0.18	0.86	0.56	4	0	4	17.4	16.7	0.72	15.2	16.9	-1.72
Cory Joseph	50	51	0.51	-0.01	0.53	0.22	10	-6	16	16.0	18.5	-2.58	15.4	15.8	-0.40
James Johnson	9	9	0.08	0.42	-0.34	0.02	2	2	0	17.1	17.2	-0.10	17.0	15.5	1.54
Terrence Ross	47	51	-0.14	0.64	-0.79	-0.11	-1	5	-6	17.6	16.8	0.86	15.7	15.4	0.30
Bismack Biyombo	24	24	-0.20	0.70	-0.91	-0.06	-5	9	-14	18.2	16.9	1.35	15.1	15.8	-0.63
Patrick Patterson	30	32	-0.38	0.88	-1.26	-0.17	-7	11	-18	17.4	17.1	0.29	16.0	15.4	0.54
Norman Powell	18	16	-0.50	1.00	-1.49	0.06	-19	23	-42	16.7	17.3	-0.59	13.7	16.0	-2.21

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.46,0.41,0.46,0.47,0.53,0.65,0.62,0.65,0.7,0.7,0.76,0.72,0.73,0.69,0.76,0.75,0.73,0.74,0.75,0.75,0.73,0.7,0.71,0.72,0.64,0.64,0.67,0.71,0.75,0.66,0.63,0.6,0.56,0.42,0.34,0.25,0.42,0.47,0.26,0.19,0.18,0.15,0.29,0.43,0.85,0.54,0.69,0.63,0.91,0.99,1
Game		Similarity Score
NJN 92, HOU 99	0.5,0.51,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.41,0.47,0.53,0.53,0.55,0.62,0.6,0.64,0.68,0.64,0.6,0.58,0.6,0.61,0.7,0.68,0.71,0.69,0.72,0.73,0.73,0.68,0.67,0.64,0.52,0.55,0.68,0.55,0.45,0.48,0.56,0.44,0.46,0.38,0.37,0.38,0.23,0.3,0.34,0.22,0.14,0.21,0.33,0.59,0.46,0.39,0.37,0.57,0.84,1	88.3%
TOR 122, LAL 129	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.46,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.57,0.57,0.55,0.53,0.53,0.57,0.62,0.64,0.66,0.58,0.69,0.7,0.66,0.66,0.67,0.69,0.67,0.75,0.71,0.69,0.51,0.64,0.71,0.74,0.77,0.59,0.52,0.4,0.48,0.54,0.43,0.43,0.29,0.33,0.31,0.59,0.58,0.32,0.46,0.57,0.83,0.46,0.45,0.55,0.9,1,1	87.8%
DEN 102, BOS 104	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.43,0.49,0.56,0.6,0.62,0.62,0.59,0.67,0.64,0.6,0.65,0.59,0.62,0.67,0.69,0.8,0.79,0.77,0.67,0.67,0.59,0.65,0.67,0.65,0.63,0.55,0.61,0.55,0.68,0.65,0.62,0.48,0.56,0.44,0.5,0.48,0.47,0.43,0.47,0.41,0.29,0.27,0.25,0.36,0.43,0.27,0.54,0.55,0.78,0.78,0.85,1	87.8%