NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	101		Excitement	7.4 [383]		MVP	Kevin Love (CLE): +14.9%
Cleveland Cavaliers	106		Comeback	3.6 [494]		LVP	Tobias Harris (DET): -10.3%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Reggie Bullock	0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.10	0.04	0.00	3	133%	0.14	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Stanley Johnson	0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.10	0.03	0.00	4	112%	0.13	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	0.12	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.13	0.02	0.03	14	66%	0.12	0	0.00	4	75%	0.01
Reggie Jackson	0.11	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.12,0.12,0.11	0.06	0.07	0.02	12	68%	0.19	3	-0.08	1	100%	0.01
Aron Baynes	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.04	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Andre Drummond	0.02	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.01	0.01	-0.02	14	43%	0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Marcus Morris	-0.08	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08	0.07	-0.13	0.02	14	59%	-0.04	1	-0.04	6	83%	-0.01
Steve Blake	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.06	-0.03	-0.00	0	50%	-0.00	3	-0.09	2	50%	-0.01
Tobias Harris	-0.10	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.07	-0.03	-0.00	11	41%	-0.01	3	-0.09	0	0%	0.00

Cleveland Cavaliers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kevin Love	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.14,0.19,0.16,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.09	0.07	0.02	22	57%	0.25	2	-0.10	5	80%	0.00
LeBron James	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.07	0.06	0.01	17	58%	0.19	1	-0.07	4	100%	0.05
Kyrie Irving	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.14,0.12,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.02,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.10	-0.00	-0.00	24	55%	0.14	1	-0.04	8	75%	-0.00
Richard Jefferson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.03	0.06	-0.00	4	62%	0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tristan Thompson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.01	0.00	1	100%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Iman Shumpert	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.00	0.02	-0.00	2	50%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
J.R. Smith	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.00	-0.01	9	45%	0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	0.00
Timofey Mozgov	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Matthew Dellavedova	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	8	39%	-0.05	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.5	3.3	32.0	15.8	23.8	2.8	42.0	142.2
league avg	24.5	2.3	29.5	15.8	26.7	2.3	33.5	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CLE +7.3%

CLE +2.3%

CLE +25.1%

CLE +9.3%

CLE +6.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	CLE	NBA	DET	CLE	NBA
this game	15.5	17.6	14.9	116.1	121.8	105.1
season	15.0	15.8		104.9	110.3
opponent	14.9	15.1		103.7	105.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DET	15.7	14.7	14.7	16.9	15.5
CLE	19.6	18.7	18.0	14.4	17.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Steve Blake	28	27	0.21	-0.71	0.92	0.03	6	-11	17	12.4	17.0	-4.57	19.1	16.9	2.28
Stanley Johnson	30	29	0.10	-0.60	0.70	0.07	1	-6	7	13.3	16.7	-3.35	19.6	16.6	2.97
Reggie Bullock	17	17	-0.10	-0.40	0.29	-0.02	-3	-2	-1	16.1	15.4	0.73	18.6	17.3	1.26
Aron Baynes	24	23	-0.15	-0.35	0.19	-0.12	-1	-4	3	14.5	15.9	-1.48	16.6	17.9	-1.37
Andre Drummond	63	64	-0.35	-0.15	-0.19	-0.23	-4	-1	-3	15.9	14.5	1.48	17.9	16.6	1.37
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	70	70	-0.40	-0.10	-0.29	-0.34	-2	-3	1	15.4	16.1	-0.73	17.3	18.6	-1.26
Marcus Morris	73	72	-0.51	0.01	-0.52	-0.31	-7	2	-9	15.6	14.9	0.72	17.2	19.3	-2.12
Tobias Harris	71	73	-0.59	0.09	-0.68	-0.47	-4	-1	-3	16.3	11.9	4.40	17.2	19.8	-2.64
Reggie Jackson	59	60	-0.71	0.21	-0.92	-0.39	-11	6	-17	17.0	12.4	4.57	16.9	19.1	-2.28

Cleveland Cavaliers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
LeBron James	72	73	0.86	-0.36	1.23	0.34	18	-13	31	17.2	19.3	-2.12	16.4	10.8	5.65
Kevin Love	65	65	0.68	-0.18	0.87	0.33	12	-7	19	18.1	16.1	1.99	17.2	10.5	6.79
Kyrie Irving	70	69	0.35	0.15	0.20	0.35	0	5	-5	17.5	17.7	-0.16	14.7	18.8	-4.10
J.R. Smith	65	65	0.35	0.15	0.19	0.26	3	2	1	17.6	17.4	0.22	15.1	16.8	-1.73
Iman Shumpert	43	42	0.32	0.18	0.14	0.44	-4	9	-13	16.2	18.9	-2.65	14.5	16.5	-2.03
Richard Jefferson	22	22	0.11	0.39	-0.28	0.14	-1	6	-7	17.4	17.6	-0.22	16.8	15.1	1.73
Matthew Dellavedova	37	37	-0.01	0.51	-0.51	0.02	-1	6	-7	16.6	18.3	-1.66	13.9	16.7	-2.80
Tristan Thompson	52	54	-0.05	0.55	-0.60	-0.14	3	2	1	18.9	15.7	3.21	15.8	15.1	0.71
Timofey Mozgov	9	8	-0.12	0.62	-0.74	0.03	-5	10	-15	20.0	17.3	2.71	11.7	15.9	-4.16

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.52,0.53,0.51,0.47,0.39,0.45,0.45,0.53,0.49,0.54,0.53,0.49,0.51,0.38,0.44,0.53,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.46,0.49,0.37,0.52,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.42,0.55,0.62,0.55,0.48,0.44,0.44,0.42,0.22,0.38,0.47,0.53,0.64,0.46,0.61,0.75,0.89,0.86,0.99,1
Game		Similarity Score
NJN 77, CLE 81	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.5,0.47,0.46,0.45,0.53,0.47,0.57,0.51,0.55,0.57,0.51,0.49,0.42,0.35,0.37,0.51,0.44,0.54,0.54,0.54,0.54,0.51,0.58,0.57,0.55,0.52,0.52,0.42,0.45,0.44,0.44,0.4,0.44,0.5,0.43,0.38,0.42,0.49,0.53,0.59,0.67,0.85,0.94,0.91,0.92,1	92.4%
MIL 102, DET 108	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.47,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.53,0.49,0.45,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.5,0.53,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.46,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.43,0.4,0.45,0.42,0.48,0.45,0.59,0.48,0.48,0.4,0.38,0.42,0.57,0.57,0.58,0.63,0.7,0.54,0.66,0.81,0.72,0.83,0.99,1	91.8%
UTA 97, PHI 99	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.47,0.43,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.38,0.46,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.44,0.48,0.51,0.47,0.54,0.44,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.42,0.45,0.58,0.48,0.55,0.52,0.41,0.37,0.44,0.44,0.5,0.48,0.47,0.57,0.53,0.59,0.66,0.82,0.86,0.93,0.98,0.99,1	91.8%