NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Portland Trail Blazers	93		Excitement	6.6 [481]		MVP	CJ McCollum (POR): +20.3%
Memphis Grizzlies	99		Comeback	1.6 [775]		LVP	Nicolas Batum (POR): -23.4%

Portland Trail Blazers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
CJ McCollum	0.20	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.17,0.17,0.23,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.38,0.38,0.35,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.25,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.2,0.2	0.21	0.05	0.06	20	75%	0.30	2	-0.10	4	50%	-0.02
Robin Lopez	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.04	0.05	0.00	1	100%	0.09	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Meyers Leonard	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.00	0.01	6	75%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Steve Blake	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.03	0.00	0.03	4	62%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tim Frazier	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Kaman	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Arron Afflalo	-0.04	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.05	-0.00	-0.01	2	0%	-0.03	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
LaMarcus Aldridge	-0.05	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.08	0.01	-0.03	18	34%	-0.03	1	-0.02	5	80%	0.01
Damian Lillard	-0.16	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.08	-0.07	0.01	19	50%	0.00	6	-0.16	6	83%	0.02
Nicolas Batum	-0.23	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23	-0.14	-0.12	-0.03	12	23%	-0.14	2	-0.09	2	50%	-0.01

Memphis Grizzlies
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Marc Gasol	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.07,0.09,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.18,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.08	0.07	0.03	15	65%	0.20	3	-0.08	10	80%	0.02
Courtney Lee	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.08,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.09	0.09	0.09	0.01	0.02	12	71%	0.16	2	-0.07	4	100%	0.01
Jeff Green	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07	0.07	-0.03	0.08	-0.02	9	40%	0.10	1	-0.02	7	86%	0.05
Tony Allen	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	-0.00	-0.00	6	57%	0.04	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Vince Carter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.02	0.00	10	43%	-0.01	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Kosta Koufos	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nick Calathes	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.13,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.07	0.01	0.00	10	30%	-0.05	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Beno Udrih	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.04	-0.05	-0.00	6	29%	-0.09	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Zach Randolph	0,0,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.09	-0.05	-0.01	19	38%	-0.07	2	-0.05	4	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.4	3.3	31.3	17.5	34.4	3.5	42.5	159.9
league avg	24.6	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

POR -4.6%

MEM +1.4%

MEM +43.9%

MEM +11.6%

POR -2.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	POR	MEM	NBA	POR	MEM	NBA
this game	14.0	16.3	15.1	97.9	104.2	104.2
season	15.3	15.9		106.5	103.8
opponent	15.2	15.0		100.8	102.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
POR	14.0	14.9	14.3	12.9	14.0
MEM	17.3	18.7	17.0	13.3	16.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Portland Trail Blazers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Steve Blake	13	13	0.04	-0.54	0.59	-0.01	2	-8	10	13.3	14.1	-0.77	16.1	16.4	-0.31
Chris Kaman	10	9	0.04	-0.54	0.58	0.01	1	-7	8	14.8	13.9	0.93	20.4	15.9	4.53
Tim Frazier	2	2	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.03	1	-7	8	9.5	14.1	-4.56	2.5	16.6	-14.15
Meyers Leonard	60	62	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	-0.46	13	-19	32	13.3	15.1	-1.72	16.5	16.0	0.49
Arron Afflalo	28	27	-0.25	-0.25	0.00	0.16	-14	8	-22	15.3	13.4	1.92	17.7	15.8	1.84
CJ McCollum	75	76	-0.26	-0.24	-0.03	-0.47	7	-13	20	13.6	15.4	-1.88	16.3	16.6	-0.29
Robin Lopez	38	37	-0.30	-0.20	-0.11	0.08	-13	7	-20	15.1	13.2	1.81	15.5	16.9	-1.41
Nicolas Batum	87	87	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	-0.34	-5	-1	-4	13.9	15.0	-1.13	16.0	20.2	-4.26
Damian Lillard	85	85	-0.54	0.04	-0.59	-0.34	-7	1	-8	13.9	14.8	-0.93	15.9	20.3	-4.42
LaMarcus Aldridge	77	77	-0.65	0.15	-0.80	-0.21	-15	9	-24	14.2	13.2	0.99	17.1	13.3	3.79

Memphis Grizzlies
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Nick Calathes	53	53	0.66	-0.16	0.83	0.13	18	-12	30	18.4	13.7	4.68	14.8	12.9	1.91
Zach Randolph	76	75	0.52	-0.02	0.54	0.20	11	-5	16	16.9	13.9	3.00	14.0	14.0	-0.04
Jeff Green	49	49	0.47	0.03	0.44	0.41	2	4	-2	13.8	19.0	-5.23	13.7	14.3	-0.57
Marc Gasol	76	76	0.41	0.10	0.31	0.29	4	2	2	15.6	19.2	-3.58	13.6	15.5	-1.95
Vince Carter	40	41	0.37	0.13	0.23	0.19	6	0	6	17.2	15.7	1.56	14.6	13.5	1.09
Courtney Lee	71	70	0.27	0.23	0.05	0.21	2	4	-2	15.6	18.7	-3.10	13.5	15.4	-1.94
Tony Allen	65	64	0.12	0.38	-0.25	0.09	1	5	-4	15.9	17.2	-1.29	13.7	14.6	-0.96
Kosta Koufos	16	17	-0.01	0.51	-0.52	-0.01	0	6	-6	20.1	15.6	4.47	15.8	13.6	2.19
Beno Udrih	29	30	-0.31	0.81	-1.12	0.10	-14	20	-34	16.7	16.2	0.49	13.9	14.0	-0.05

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.54,0.6,0.63,0.65,0.69,0.66,0.66,0.66,0.62,0.58,0.56,0.5,0.53,0.47,0.42,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.49,0.54,0.56,0.61,0.7,0.81,0.84,0.75,0.7,0.73,0.65,0.65,0.52,0.48,0.52,0.56,0.58,0.62,0.62,0.53,0.63,0.53,0.53,0.78,0.86,0.96,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
WAS 90, MIA 99	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.58,0.61,0.63,0.66,0.6,0.59,0.63,0.6,0.62,0.62,0.66,0.64,0.64,0.53,0.58,0.56,0.56,0.56,0.61,0.57,0.67,0.73,0.73,0.81,0.77,0.7,0.7,0.67,0.58,0.71,0.65,0.48,0.44,0.48,0.5,0.66,0.7,0.71,0.63,0.59,0.53,0.72,0.93,0.98,0.99,1,1	92.6%
NYK 84, HOU 95	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.5,0.47,0.5,0.47,0.57,0.63,0.65,0.58,0.62,0.52,0.51,0.53,0.49,0.47,0.44,0.42,0.41,0.41,0.43,0.44,0.54,0.67,0.72,0.69,0.73,0.73,0.7,0.68,0.62,0.59,0.52,0.52,0.48,0.46,0.57,0.52,0.48,0.63,0.59,0.41,0.6,0.75,0.85,0.99,1,1	91.6%
SAC 101, OKC 106	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.55,0.58,0.58,0.62,0.64,0.59,0.57,0.53,0.54,0.57,0.56,0.6,0.55,0.56,0.56,0.52,0.52,0.54,0.61,0.56,0.59,0.67,0.62,0.69,0.55,0.67,0.64,0.76,0.68,0.55,0.57,0.56,0.56,0.46,0.57,0.44,0.52,0.58,0.78,0.75,0.88,0.93,0.95,0.99,0.98,1	91.0%