NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	95		Excitement	7.0 [417]		MVP	Danny Green (SAS): +31.8%
San Antonio Spurs	110		Comeback	4.0 [424]		LVP	Norris Cole (MIA): -9.8%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chris Bosh	0.21	0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.1,0.11,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21	0.11	0.11	0.01	11	78%	0.29	2	-0.08	1	100%	0.01
LeBron James	0.09	0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.05	0.04	0.01	17	62%	0.21	4	-0.13	6	83%	0.02
Rashard Lewis	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.03	0.03	-0.01	10	50%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ray Allen	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.12,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.09	-0.04	0.00	12	62%	0.05	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Chris Andersen	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.02	0.03	0.00	2	50%	0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Shane Battier	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dwyane Wade	-0.05	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.05,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.00	-0.06	-0.01	18	50%	-0.00	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Mario Chalmers	-0.08	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08	-0.10	-0.01	-0.03	3	50%	0.04	5	-0.12	0	0%	0.00
Norris Cole	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.07	-0.03	-0.00	4	25%	-0.06	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Danny Green	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,0.02,0.14,0.19,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.32	0.32	0.06	0.24	-0.02	9	65%	0.34	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Tiago Splitter	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.04	0.11	0.01	6	82%	0.25	4	-0.11	5	80%	0.01
Tim Duncan	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.08	0.05	0.03	10	87%	0.24	5	-0.14	4	75%	-0.00
Patty Mills	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.05	0.01	-0.00	5	70%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Manu Ginobili	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.08	-0.03	0.00	10	70%	0.13	2	-0.08	3	100%	0.02
Marco Belinelli	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.06	-0.02	0.00	3	90%	0.08	1	-0.04	4	75%	-0.01
Kawhi Leonard	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	0.03	5	75%	0.07	4	-0.11	2	50%	-0.02
Boris Diaw	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.06	-0.02	-0.00	5	20%	-0.05	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Tony Parker	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	0.00	-0.03	0.06	15	59%	0.06	4	-0.14	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.3	3.6	34.5	18.3	29.4	3.8	34.2	150.0
league avg	24.7	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.4	136.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +51.2%

SAS +5.1%

SAS +15.7%

MIA -24.0%

SAS +2.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	SAS	NBA	MIA	SAS	NBA
this game	15.8	14.4	15.1	99.0	115.8	105.2
season	15.6	15.0		109.7	109.8
opponent	15.0	15.8		101.1	105.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	16.7	13.8	13.9	19.3	15.8
SAS	13.3	15.0	13.8	15.8	14.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Shane Battier	28	27	0.12	-0.62	0.75	0.10	1	-16	17	16.1	15.6	0.54	13.3	14.8	-1.58
LeBron James	68	67	0.12	-0.62	0.74	0.12	0	-15	15	15.7	16.0	-0.29	13.5	16.5	-3.04
Mario Chalmers	33	35	-0.11	-0.39	0.27	-0.03	-3	-12	9	15.7	15.8	-0.10	15.1	14.0	1.10
Chris Andersen	34	35	-0.20	-0.30	0.11	-0.17	-1	-14	13	15.1	16.1	-1.09	15.2	13.9	1.28
Chris Bosh	69	68	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	0.09	-12	-3	-9	15.5	16.4	-0.90	14.1	15.1	-1.06
Norris Cole	60	57	-0.34	-0.16	-0.19	-0.02	-11	-4	-7	15.7	15.9	-0.16	14.1	14.8	-0.62
Ray Allen	64	64	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.06	-11	-4	-7	15.2	17.0	-1.81	14.6	14.0	0.63
Rashard Lewis	61	59	-0.71	0.21	-0.92	-0.12	-20	5	-25	16.3	14.9	1.38	14.7	13.9	0.81
Dwyane Wade	63	63	-0.74	0.24	-0.98	-0.21	-18	3	-21	16.6	14.2	2.31	15.0	13.1	1.95

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Boris Diaw	62	62	1.00	-0.50	1.49	0.12	30	-15	45	15.0	13.3	1.66	17.0	13.4	3.59
Manu Ginobili	61	61	0.77	-0.27	1.04	0.12	22	-7	29	14.8	13.7	1.06	16.8	14.0	2.77
Tony Parker	73	76	0.43	0.07	0.35	0.04	13	2	11	14.5	13.9	0.63	15.6	16.5	-0.93
Tim Duncan	64	64	0.42	0.08	0.33	0.12	10	5	5	14.4	14.3	0.10	16.6	14.1	2.50
Danny Green	55	55	0.32	0.18	0.14	0.26	2	13	-11	14.1	14.8	-0.67	16.2	15.2	0.94
Tiago Splitter	49	50	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	-0.05	1	14	-13	14.1	14.7	-0.68	14.3	17.4	-3.09
Kawhi Leonard	48	52	-0.04	0.54	-0.57	-0.36	11	4	7	13.5	15.3	-1.76	15.0	16.7	-1.66
Patty Mills	22	20	-0.06	0.56	-0.62	0.03	-3	18	-21	15.2	14.1	1.09	16.4	15.6	0.87
Marco Belinelli	41	40	-0.31	0.81	-1.13	0.01	-11	26	-37	14.0	14.7	-0.73	13.2	17.6	-4.35

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.47,0.47,0.5,0.57,0.57,0.51,0.47,0.51,0.62,0.65,0.62,0.56,0.6,0.62,0.51,0.53,0.54,0.54,0.56,0.58,0.59,0.63,0.71,0.63,0.55,0.52,0.48,0.45,0.48,0.52,0.56,0.4,0.28,0.34,0.43,0.38,0.24,0.3,0.41,0.4,0.54,0.69,0.93,0.91,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
SAS 111, DAL 113	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.53,0.58,0.55,0.55,0.57,0.55,0.58,0.62,0.66,0.64,0.73,0.66,0.67,0.58,0.58,0.64,0.59,0.56,0.58,0.61,0.67,0.63,0.55,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.55,0.45,0.35,0.37,0.37,0.29,0.3,0.3,0.43,0.29,0.37,0.36,0.4,0.47,0.8,0.93,0.9,0.9,1	93.0%
PHX 92, POR 106	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.6,0.53,0.53,0.55,0.54,0.6,0.58,0.62,0.58,0.58,0.65,0.66,0.61,0.58,0.56,0.59,0.58,0.63,0.55,0.55,0.48,0.48,0.45,0.65,0.48,0.41,0.33,0.4,0.26,0.34,0.48,0.38,0.51,0.53,0.46,0.53,0.81,0.89,0.99,1,1	92.1%
NOP 81, DAL 91	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.55,0.62,0.65,0.6,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.56,0.52,0.59,0.61,0.64,0.59,0.64,0.51,0.58,0.49,0.42,0.58,0.45,0.42,0.45,0.43,0.44,0.44,0.48,0.5,0.43,0.53,0.33,0.27,0.26,0.47,0.65,0.81,0.92,0.97,1,1	92.1%