NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	112		Excitement	11.4 [37]		MVP	Tim Duncan (SAS): +29.0%
Oklahoma City Thunder	107		Comeback	3.7 [270]		LVP	Russell Westbrook (OKC): -31.6%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tim Duncan	0.29	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,0.02,0.15,0.29	0.05	0.24	0.00	14	53%	0.29	0	0.00	8	87%	0.05
Boris Diaw	0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.16,0.19,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.2,0.24,0.24,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.10	0.06	0.01	14	68%	0.28	3	-0.12	10	70%	-0.00
Marco Belinelli	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.02	0.02	0.00	2	75%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tiago Splitter	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.01	0.00	1	62%	0.03	0	0.00	6	50%	-0.06
Matt Bonner	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.00	0.01	-0.01	6	50%	0.03	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Cory Joseph	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	3	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Danny Green	-0.02	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.11,-0.11,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	12	44%	0.06	2	-0.07	1	100%	0.01
Tony Parker	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	0.01	6	57%	0.02	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01
Manu Ginobili	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.14,-0.07,-0.07,0.08,0.15,0.15,0.05,0.05,-0.04	-0.07	0.02	-0.01	14	43%	0.08	3	-0.12	7	86%	0.02
Patty Mills	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	1	0%	-0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Kawhi Leonard	-0.20	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.15,-0.15,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2	-0.07	-0.12	0.01	21	40%	-0.15	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00

Oklahoma City Thunder
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Serge Ibaka	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.18	0.06	0.13	0.01	10	62%	0.21	1	-0.03	6	83%	0.03
Reggie Jackson	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.07	0.03	-0.01	16	62%	0.15	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Derek Fisher	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.01	0.03	-0.01	4	62%	0.07	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Kendrick Perkins	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nick Collison	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Thabo Sefolosha	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Perry Jones	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jeremy Lamb	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.05	0.00	-0.02	3	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Steven Adams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.02	-0.00	1	0%	-0.02	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Durant	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.11,0,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0.12,0.06,0.06,0.06,-0.02,-0.07	-0.07	-0.03	-0.04	-0.00	25	54%	0.34	7	-0.41	7	71%	0.05
Russell Westbrook	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.12,-0.19,-0.22,-0.03,-0.08,-0.07,-0.06,-0.17,-0.32	-0.32	-0.04	-0.26	0.01	23	53%	0.02	7	-0.33	18	94%	0.19

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1	Total
this game	26.4	3.6	29.0	18.8	28.3	3.4	47.5	2.0	19.8	178.9
league avg	24.7	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.4	1.9	17.6	136.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +33.3%

OKC -42.7%

SAS +11.4%

SAS +42.4%

SAS +5.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	OKC	NBA	SAS	OKC	NBA
this game	15.9	13.1	15.1	100.9	99.1	105.2
season	15.0	14.4		109.8	107.8
opponent	15.4	15.0		102.9	101.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
SAS	14.0	20.6	14.5	16.5	13.5	15.9
OKC	13.7	14.3	13.8	10.8	13.8	13.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Danny Green	79	77	0.82	-0.32	1.14	0.38	15	-10	25	15.9	15.7	0.19	13.5	12.2	1.25
Tim Duncan	80	80	0.76	-0.26	1.03	0.47	10	-5	15	15.3	17.3	-1.91	13.6	11.7	1.85
Boris Diaw	79	75	0.59	-0.09	0.68	0.30	10	-5	15	15.6	16.5	-0.82	12.2	15.2	-3.06
Manu Ginobili	73	70	0.43	0.07	0.37	0.32	4	1	3	15.5	16.6	-1.02	12.1	14.9	-2.82
Patty Mills	38	39	0.23	0.27	-0.05	0.08	5	0	5	14.4	16.7	-2.26	13.5	12.9	0.65
Kawhi Leonard	92	90	0.10	0.40	-0.29	0.28	-6	11	-17	15.9	15.9	-0.01	13.2	12.6	0.61
Cory Joseph	14	14	0.06	0.44	-0.38	-0.14	7	-2	9	15.2	16.0	-0.77	15.0	12.8	2.16
Tiago Splitter	24	22	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	-0.08	2	3	-1	15.2	16.1	-0.91	12.1	13.4	-1.24
Matt Bonner	26	27	-0.07	0.57	-0.64	0.02	-3	8	-11	17.2	15.5	1.71	15.0	12.5	2.56
Marco Belinelli	13	11	-0.16	0.66	-0.82	0.07	-8	13	-21	19.5	15.4	4.14	10.8	13.4	-2.56
Tony Parker	37	35	-0.24	0.74	-0.99	0.08	-11	16	-27	18.2	14.7	3.42	13.6	12.9	0.71

Oklahoma City Thunder
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kendrick Perkins	40	40	0.19	-0.69	0.89	-0.04	8	-13	21	14.2	12.5	1.75	17.6	14.9	2.65
Nick Collison	7	8	0.07	-0.57	0.64	-0.02	3	-8	11	8.6	13.4	-4.86	11.4	16.2	-4.86
Perry Jones	1	1	0.02	-0.52	0.54	0.02	0	-5	5	4.0	13.2	-9.21	0.0	16.0	-16.03
Russell Westbrook	89	91	-0.00	-0.50	0.49	-0.36	12	-17	29	13.0	13.9	-0.94	16.1	14.8	1.32
Jeremy Lamb	13	15	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	-0.01	-1	-4	3	11.6	13.3	-1.71	15.5	15.9	-0.40
Kevin Durant	105	107	-0.49	-0.01	-0.47	-0.40	-3	-2	-1	13.3	7.0	6.30	16.1	11.2	4.81
Steven Adams	28	28	-0.54	0.04	-0.58	-0.04	-17	12	-29	12.7	13.3	-0.55	12.4	17.0	-4.62
Reggie Jackson	91	94	-0.56	0.06	-0.63	-0.36	-7	2	-9	13.5	10.8	2.73	16.6	12.1	4.45
Derek Fisher	70	73	-0.57	0.07	-0.64	-0.28	-10	5	-15	12.3	14.6	-2.21	15.0	17.7	-2.70
Serge Ibaka	96	98	-0.60	0.10	-0.69	-0.30	-10	5	-15	13.5	9.8	3.70	16.4	12.1	4.31

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.53,0.59,0.61,0.59,0.57,0.59,0.6,0.63,0.6,0.57,0.56,0.55,0.53,0.51,0.44,0.46,0.46,0.56,0.58,0.59,0.61,0.7,0.68,0.63,0.58,0.55,0.45,0.52,0.45,0.48,0.44,0.44,0.4,0.13,0.11,0.1,0.17,0.12,0.17,0.09,0.13,0.31,0.37,0.1,0.16,0.46,0.55,0.54,0.69,0.27,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIA 120, DET 115	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.43,0.37,0.42,0.44,0.52,0.57,0.63,0.67,0.63,0.6,0.48,0.47,0.42,0.42,0.53,0.54,0.46,0.49,0.53,0.56,0.56,0.56,0.5,0.52,0.46,0.55,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.35,0.48,0.46,0.44,0.32,0.19,0.11,0.15,0.17,0.05,0.06,0.12,0.17,0.04,0.11,0.1,0.08,0.54,0.46,0.45,0.45,0.42,0	89.9%
ORL 117, CLE 116	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.43,0.38,0.46,0.47,0.43,0.37,0.45,0.5,0.47,0.53,0.52,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.42,0.44,0.39,0.41,0.36,0.39,0.46,0.56,0.5,0.59,0.52,0.64,0.58,0.52,0.45,0.41,0.48,0.44,0.37,0.4,0.42,0.26,0.18,0.19,0.42,0.17,0.19,0.27,0.25,0.28,0.22,0.15,0.46,0.39,0.63,0.45,0.42,0	88.3%
BKN 110, MIA 109	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.52,0.56,0.55,0.59,0.66,0.69,0.7,0.74,0.71,0.7,0.64,0.68,0.73,0.67,0.65,0.66,0.61,0.61,0.56,0.54,0.67,0.7,0.68,0.66,0.59,0.52,0.48,0.52,0.59,0.62,0.48,0.48,0.4,0.34,0.3,0.25,0.17,0.23,0.1,0.24,0.31,0.19,0.36,0.32,0.28,0.5,0.61,0.37,0.24,0.28,0	87.8%