NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Oklahoma City Thunder	92		Excitement	11.2 [42]		MVP	Reggie Jackson (OKC): +27.5%
Memphis Grizzlies	89		Comeback	17.0 [93]		LVP	Russell Westbrook (OKC): -73.7%

Oklahoma City Thunder
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Reggie Jackson	0.27	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.17,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.05,0.05,-0.04,-0.04,0.1,0.1,0.18,0.18,0.17,0.27	0.17	0.11	0.01	16	80%	0.50	4	-0.23	8	100%	0.15
Nick Collison	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	150%	0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Caron Butler	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.00	0.01	-0.00	6	50%	0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Kendrick Perkins	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	4	40%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Thabo Sefolosha	-0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	4	37%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Steven Adams	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Derek Fisher	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	3	25%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Serge Ibaka	-0.08	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	0.02	-0.08	0.01	11	55%	-0.04	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Durant	-0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.19,-0.21,-0.21,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.17,-0.19,-0.16,-0.16,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.21,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.33,-0.39,-0.39,-0.39,-0.33,-0.33,-0.33,-0.17,-0.17	-0.21	0.03	-0.02	21	31%	-0.05	5	-0.12	6	67%	0.06
Russell Westbrook	-0.74	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.13,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.13,-0.13,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.24,-0.27,-0.33,-0.33,-0.33,-0.33,-0.4,-0.47,-0.47,-0.74	-0.27	-0.48	-0.01	24	30%	-0.33	7	-0.40	2	100%	0.01

Memphis Grizzlies
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mike Miller	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.17,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.00	0.10	0.01	7	44%	0.09	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.11
Ed Davis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tayshaun Prince	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	0.01	2	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kosta Koufos	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
James Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Courtney Lee	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	10	41%	-0.02	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Tony Allen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.06,0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.03	-0.05	0.00	14	45%	-0.03	2	-0.05	3	67%	-0.01
Beno Udrih	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.1,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.05	-0.05	0.00	6	50%	0.03	3	-0.13	0	0%	0.00
Zach Randolph	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.19,-0.19,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.10	0.00	-0.00	14	33%	-0.06	2	-0.04	5	20%	-0.08
Mike Conley	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.11,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.18,-0.15	-0.15	-0.05	-0.07	0.03	16	38%	-0.13	1	-0.03	5	80%	0.02
Marc Gasol	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,-0.14,-0.2,-0.2,-0.3,-0.3,-0.3	-0.30	-0.04	-0.25	0.01	21	50%	-0.14	4	-0.16	4	75%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1	Total
this game	25.3	2.8	30.6	18.7	27.3	2.8	41.0	1.7	22.0	172.2
league avg	24.7	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.4	1.9	17.6	136.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

OKC +5.1%

OKC +36.6%

OKC +44.3%

MEM -42.7%

OKC +6.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	OKC	MEM	NBA	OKC	MEM	NBA
this game	15.4	16.6	15.1	91.1	90.8	105.2
season	14.4	16.4		107.8	104.5
opponent	15.2	15.4		103.4	102.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
OKC	15.9	12.1	14.0	19.3	17.6	15.4
MEM	16.1	15.0	20.3	15.5	15.8	16.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Oklahoma City Thunder
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kendrick Perkins	45	45	0.63	-0.13	0.76	0.54	3	0	3	15.7	15.2	0.45	17.2	16.0	1.22
Russell Westbrook	83	81	0.49	0.01	0.49	0.35	5	-2	7	15.8	13.8	1.99	16.7	16.1	0.61
Reggie Jackson	72	70	0.44	0.06	0.39	0.38	2	1	1	15.2	15.9	-0.67	16.2	17.5	-1.31
Kevin Durant	93	90	0.43	0.07	0.35	0.43	0	3	-3	15.6	13.0	2.62	16.8	14.4	2.38
Serge Ibaka	82	78	0.40	0.10	0.30	0.37	1	2	-1	15.9	13.3	2.65	16.2	17.8	-1.56
Nick Collison	19	19	0.23	0.27	-0.05	0.05	6	-3	9	14.0	15.7	-1.74	20.3	15.7	4.59
Thabo Sefolosha	28	27	0.14	0.36	-0.22	0.11	1	2	-1	15.3	15.5	-0.18	17.3	16.3	1.07
Derek Fisher	25	24	0.07	0.43	-0.35	0.02	2	1	1	13.2	16.1	-2.89	15.7	16.8	-1.13
Steven Adams	11	11	0.07	0.43	-0.36	0.01	2	1	1	13.8	15.6	-1.79	16.1	16.6	-0.53
Caron Butler	47	45	-0.40	0.90	-1.30	-0.20	-7	10	-17	15.7	15.1	0.62	15.0	17.9	-2.89

Memphis Grizzlies
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Beno Udrih	35	38	0.44	-0.94	1.38	0.18	9	-12	21	15.9	16.9	-1.05	15.9	15.1	0.77
Kosta Koufos	5	5	-0.00	-0.50	0.49	-0.00	0	-3	3	14.6	16.7	-2.07	16.0	15.4	0.61
Tayshaun Prince	31	31	-0.01	-0.49	0.49	-0.07	2	-5	7	17.8	16.0	1.82	15.5	15.4	0.05
Ed Davis	12	12	-0.03	-0.47	0.45	0.00	-1	-2	1	14.0	16.9	-2.92	11.6	15.9	-4.35
Tony Allen	60	65	-0.05	-0.45	0.41	-0.05	0	-3	3	16.3	17.0	-0.76	16.1	14.2	1.90
James Johnson	8	8	-0.07	-0.43	0.35	0.01	-3	0	-3	14.4	16.8	-2.38	13.0	15.6	-2.62
Mike Miller	46	50	-0.12	-0.38	0.25	-0.24	4	-7	11	15.3	17.7	-2.45	15.1	15.7	-0.67
Marc Gasol	88	92	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.45	0	-3	3	16.7	15.6	1.07	15.7	12.6	3.14
Mike Conley	86	88	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.42	-2	-1	-1	16.9	14.0	2.92	16.1	10.9	5.16
Courtney Lee	57	54	-0.76	0.26	-1.02	-0.47	-10	7	-17	16.9	16.1	0.80	14.8	16.1	-1.25
Zach Randolph	62	62	-0.97	0.47	-1.45	-0.56	-14	11	-25	17.5	14.9	2.69	14.8	16.4	-1.54

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.51,0.5,0.53,0.49,0.51,0.57,0.55,0.49,0.44,0.47,0.42,0.37,0.4,0.34,0.33,0.33,0.3,0.3,0.26,0.18,0.18,0.17,0.21,0.29,0.23,0.22,0.24,0.17,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.15,0.14,0.19,0.21,0.15,0.22,0.47,0.64,0.85,0.94,0.46,0.53,0.46,0.55,0.42,0
Game		Similarity Score
SAC 117, HOU 111	0.5,0.51,0.53,0.48,0.45,0.42,0.4,0.4,0.39,0.45,0.45,0.47,0.53,0.5,0.47,0.47,0.42,0.38,0.44,0.37,0.34,0.26,0.31,0.39,0.44,0.42,0.4,0.46,0.39,0.3,0.24,0.26,0.26,0.25,0.13,0.13,0.25,0.19,0.22,0.18,0.17,0.23,0.11,0.34,0.33,0.38,0.46,0.78,0.74,0.54,0.61,0.63,0.45,0.09,0	89.0%
LAC 113, VAN 119	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.52,0.5,0.5,0.47,0.51,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.42,0.46,0.49,0.45,0.49,0.44,0.51,0.44,0.39,0.36,0.34,0.33,0.2,0.22,0.38,0.37,0.28,0.3,0.33,0.26,0.32,0.31,0.37,0.23,0.21,0.13,0.15,0.07,0.11,0.23,0.17,0.29,0.27,0.38,0.63,0.9,0.92,1	87.6%
SEA 98, HOU 100	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.5,0.48,0.55,0.59,0.51,0.57,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.57,0.56,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.42,0.39,0.34,0.36,0.36,0.42,0.41,0.27,0.37,0.31,0.36,0.33,0.33,0.21,0.15,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.21,0.19,0.13,0.14,0.17,0.24,0.26,0.29,0.39,0.53,0.72,0.67,0.91,1	87.3%