NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	91		Excitement	3.2 [923]		MVP	Kevin Garnett (BOS): +6.1%
Boston Celtics	101		Comeback	1.6 [605]		LVP	Dwyane Wade (MIA): -10.0%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Joel Anthony	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
LeBron James	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0.02,0.04,0.09,0.11,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.12	-0.01	0.08	26	60%	0.06	3	-0.03	5	20%	-0.04
Juwan Howard	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dexter Pittman	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Terrel Harris	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Norris Cole	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ronny Turiaf	-0.01	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.00	0.00	0.00	1	75%	0.01	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
James Jones	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.00	-0.00	0.01	2	67%	0.01	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Udonis Haslem	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.00	0.00	0.01	2	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.00
Mike Miller	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.06	-0.00	0.08	8	65%	-0.02	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.01
Mario Chalmers	-0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.01	0.00	0.04	11	50%	-0.01	1	-0.02	6	50%	-0.03
Shane Battier	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.11	-0.00	-0.04	6	0%	-0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Dwyane Wade	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1	-0.06	-0.02	0.03	20	45%	-0.04	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kevin Garnett	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.04	0.00	-0.02	16	63%	0.12	4	-0.06	6	67%	-0.02
Marquis Daniels	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.07	0.00	0.02	6	64%	0.05	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Ray Allen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.06	0.01	0.01	8	62%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Keyon Dooling	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.02	-0.00	-0.02	4	87%	0.06	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Rajon Rondo	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.05	0.00	0.03	16	57%	0.03	2	-0.01	5	60%	0.00
Paul Pierce	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.02	0.01	-0.03	21	47%	0.04	3	-0.02	7	100%	0.03
Sasha Pavlovic	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
E'Twaun Moore	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ryan Hollins	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Greg Stiemsma	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.00	0.00	0.00	0	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Brandon Bass	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	3	50%	0.01	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Mickael Pietrus	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	0.01	2	33%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	31.8	3.7	37.3	17.3	31.5	3.4	35.3	160.3
league avg	25.5	2.3	29.8	14.2	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

BOS +26.2%

BOS +9.6%

BOS +9.7%

BOS +5.0%

MIA -0.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	BOS	NBA	MIA	BOS	NBA
this game	16.2	16.8	15.6	104.6	114.8	102.8
season	15.5	15.5		105.6	99.4
opponent	16.2	15.8		97.1	98.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	15.4	16.7	16.9	15.5	16.2
BOS	15.2	15.2	15.8	21.2	16.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Juwan Howard	0	1	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.06	2	-12	14	0.0	16.2	-16.16	45.0	16.4	28.57
Dexter Pittman	0	1	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.06	2	-12	14	0.0	16.2	-16.16	45.0	16.4	28.57
Terrel Harris	0	1	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.06	2	-12	14	0.0	16.2	-16.16	45.0	16.4	28.57
Ronny Turiaf	17	17	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	0.03	-4	-6	2	17.6	15.8	1.85	15.5	17.0	-1.51
Norris Cole	2	4	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	-0.02	-3	-7	4	25.0	16.0	9.05	19.7	16.6	3.14
James Jones	19	21	-0.19	-0.31	0.13	0.14	-11	1	-12	15.0	16.5	-1.49	15.3	17.2	-1.86
Joel Anthony	23	22	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	0.06	-9	-1	-8	16.3	16.1	0.25	13.6	17.8	-4.15
Mike Miller	38	36	-0.21	-0.29	0.09	-0.21	0	-10	10	16.4	16.0	0.37	16.8	16.7	0.14
Udonis Haslem	31	32	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	0.06	-12	2	-14	15.4	16.6	-1.20	15.8	17.3	-1.47
Mario Chalmers	80	81	-0.29	-0.21	-0.09	-0.24	-2	-8	6	16.0	18.4	-2.47	16.9	14.6	2.37
Shane Battier	69	68	-0.32	-0.18	-0.13	-0.29	-1	-9	8	16.4	15.2	1.18	17.2	15.3	1.88
LeBron James	79	79	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.17	-6	-4	-2	16.1	16.9	-0.79	16.9	15.2	1.70
Dwyane Wade	77	77	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.22	-8	-2	-6	16.1	16.6	-0.50	16.6	17.5	-0.91

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kevin Garnett	63	65	0.61	-0.11	0.72	-0.18	27	-17	44	14.7	22.0	-7.33	16.7	14.6	2.10
Marquis Daniels	31	29	0.39	0.11	0.29	-0.02	14	-4	18	16.3	17.0	-0.66	17.9	15.3	2.66
Ray Allen	68	69	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.26	4	6	-2	17.1	15.6	1.49	16.2	16.1	0.13
Paul Pierce	77	77	0.38	0.12	0.25	0.08	10	0	10	15.7	24.2	-8.49	16.0	17.4	-1.40
Rajon Rondo	78	78	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.19	5	5	0	17.0	14.5	2.54	15.8	19.3	-3.54
Keyon Dooling	37	34	0.24	0.26	-0.01	-0.05	10	0	10	18.0	15.8	2.20	15.4	16.6	-1.18
Mickael Pietrus	35	36	0.12	0.38	-0.26	0.23	-4	14	-18	17.0	16.6	0.42	16.1	16.2	-0.04
Ryan Hollins	11	10	0.10	0.40	-0.31	0.13	-1	11	-12	19.0	16.4	2.57	15.3	16.3	-0.97
Brandon Bass	31	30	0.03	0.47	-0.43	0.27	-8	18	-26	17.8	16.2	1.58	15.8	16.3	-0.50
Sasha Pavlovic	1	0	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.06	-2	12	-14	45.0	16.4	28.57	0.0	16.2	-16.16
E'Twaun Moore	1	0	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.06	-2	12	-14	45.0	16.4	28.57	0.0	16.2	-16.16
Greg Stiemsma	7	7	-0.09	0.59	-0.68	0.00	-3	13	-16	18.4	16.6	1.82	15.7	16.2	-0.49

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.45,0.43,0.42,0.51,0.54,0.53,0.58,0.6,0.65,0.69,0.7,0.66,0.71,0.74,0.73,0.73,0.84,0.88,0.84,0.89,0.93,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1,0.99,0.96,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.98,0.99,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
LAC 80, WAS 99	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.55,0.54,0.52,0.57,0.51,0.47,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.54,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.6,0.69,0.68,0.64,0.69,0.67,0.72,0.73,0.78,0.79,0.84,0.85,0.85,0.94,0.97,0.96,0.96,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.7%
OKC 90, UTA 110	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.53,0.5,0.49,0.47,0.48,0.45,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.53,0.58,0.6,0.69,0.78,0.78,0.75,0.74,0.74,0.73,0.73,0.84,0.81,0.82,0.87,0.95,0.98,0.97,0.95,0.97,0.96,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.98,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.6%
MIL 88, UTA 101	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.53,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.47,0.53,0.55,0.51,0.58,0.57,0.53,0.58,0.6,0.65,0.69,0.72,0.73,0.73,0.69,0.72,0.73,0.8,0.88,0.9,0.89,0.92,0.95,0.98,0.98,0.99,1,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,0.99,0.99,1,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.6%