NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	102		Excitement	6.1 [467]		MVP	Andre Miller (DEN): +33.1%
Los Angeles Lakers	99		Comeback	1.1 [344]		LVP	Pau Gasol (LAL): -12.5%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Andre Miller	0.33	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.17,0.18,0.18,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.25,0.3,0.33	0.19	0.15	0.01	11	86%	0.35	1	-0.02	6	100%	0.07
JaVale McGee	0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.15,0.16,0.16,0.17,0.17,0.18,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.15	0.05	0.03	12	70%	0.17	0	0.00	6	50%	-0.02
Arron Afflalo	0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	19	46%	0.03	1	-0.02	3	67%	-0.02
Kenneth Faried	-0.00	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.03	-0.03	0.01	5	100%	0.09	3	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Danilo Gallinari	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	0.00	13	44%	-0.00	0	0.00	6	100%	0.03
Timofey Mozgov	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Corey Brewer	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.06	0.01	-0.03	5	20%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Ty Lawson	-0.05	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.01	12	35%	-0.05	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Al Harrington	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.11	0.00	-0.03	7	17%	-0.07	1	-0.01	4	75%	-0.02

Los Angeles Lakers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kobe Bryant	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.06,-0.07,-0.04,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.12,0.18,0.07	0.07	0.12	-0.04	0.01	32	57%	0.17	3	-0.10	11	91%	0.05
Andrew Bynum	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.06	0.02	0.02	8	67%	0.10	1	-0.03	8	75%	0.03
Darius Morris	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Steve Blake	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.03	-0.03	0.03	6	67%	0.02	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Devin Ebanks	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	0.01	3	37%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Ramon Sessions	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.03	-0.03	-0.08	0.04	-0.01	12	33%	0.02	2	-0.04	3	67%	-0.01
Matt Barnes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.02,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.02	-0.03	-0.00	14	39%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jordan Hill	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.06	-0.00	-0.00	4	0%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Pau Gasol	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.07	-0.02	0.03	11	37%	-0.08	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.3	3.8	34.0	-701.3	26.5	2.6	40.6	-567.5
league avg	25.5	2.3	29.8	14.2	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +36.6%

DEN +4.4%

LAL -3.3%

DEN +10.9%

DEN +1.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	LAL	NBA	DEN	LAL	NBA
this game	14.5	15.6	15.6	107.4	103.1	102.8
season	14.5	16.2		107.5	103.8
opponent	15.1	15.8		103.5	104.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	12.4	14.3	15.4	16.0	14.5
LAL	16.4	17.0	14.6	14.7	15.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ty Lawson	58	59	0.49	0.01	0.48	0.19	10	-7	17	14.1	15.2	-1.16	15.8	15.3	0.52
Danilo Gallinari	76	75	0.47	0.03	0.45	0.36	4	-1	5	13.9	17.1	-3.25	15.5	16.3	-0.82
Al Harrington	52	52	0.37	0.13	0.23	0.40	-1	4	-5	14.9	14.0	0.92	15.3	16.1	-0.78
Arron Afflalo	68	71	0.29	0.21	0.08	0.26	1	2	-1	14.7	14.1	0.55	16.2	14.1	2.12
JaVale McGee	67	67	0.26	0.24	0.01	0.40	-5	8	-13	14.3	15.0	-0.70	15.0	17.1	-2.14
Andre Miller	55	56	0.24	0.26	-0.02	0.38	-5	8	-13	14.8	14.0	0.79	14.8	16.8	-1.94
Kenneth Faried	46	47	0.23	0.27	-0.04	-0.00	8	-5	13	14.5	14.5	0.07	16.3	15.0	1.32
Timofey Mozgov	25	26	0.14	0.36	-0.21	0.03	4	-1	5	14.1	14.6	-0.52	16.8	15.2	1.59
Corey Brewer	30	30	0.11	0.39	-0.29	0.14	-1	4	-5	15.2	14.2	0.97	15.2	15.8	-0.65

Los Angeles Lakers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Pau Gasol	76	76	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	-0.41	11	-14	25	15.4	16.7	-1.33	14.6	14.1	0.57
Matt Barnes	45	45	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	-0.08	-2	-1	-1	15.5	15.8	-0.25	14.7	14.3	0.39
Ramon Sessions	73	73	-0.15	-0.35	0.19	-0.42	9	-12	21	15.7	15.4	0.33	14.7	14.0	0.72
Devin Ebanks	23	23	-0.16	-0.34	0.17	0.04	-7	4	-11	16.7	15.3	1.32	13.7	14.7	-1.01
Jordan Hill	39	38	-0.36	-0.14	-0.23	0.02	-13	10	-23	15.7	15.6	0.12	14.4	14.6	-0.14
Steve Blake	61	59	-0.48	-0.02	-0.47	-0.40	-3	0	-3	15.1	16.5	-1.37	14.7	14.2	0.50
Andrew Bynum	77	76	-0.55	0.04	-0.59	-0.43	-4	1	-5	15.9	14.7	1.20	14.4	14.8	-0.36
Kobe Bryant	86	85	-0.56	0.06	-0.61	-0.38	-6	3	-9	15.7	14.9	0.83	14.3	16.0	-1.67

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.45,0.48,0.44,0.41,0.43,0.47,0.43,0.45,0.36,0.43,0.42,0.38,0.42,0.41,0.49,0.34,0.39,0.41,0.36,0.31,0.27,0.33,0.43,0.31,0.22,0.22,0.27,0.23,0.25,0.31,0.37,0.22,0.18,0.1,0.13,0.1,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.06,0.05,0
Game		Similarity Score
SEA 118, PHI 94	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.47,0.46,0.41,0.41,0.45,0.43,0.42,0.44,0.35,0.38,0.4,0.47,0.4,0.44,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.42,0.39,0.36,0.42,0.35,0.31,0.31,0.27,0.22,0.18,0.25,0.28,0.24,0.19,0.12,0.08,0.1,0.12,0.07,0.01,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0	94.7%
CLE 98, MIN 87	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.5,0.48,0.51,0.49,0.55,0.55,0.53,0.45,0.4,0.38,0.36,0.4,0.42,0.49,0.44,0.37,0.34,0.44,0.36,0.3,0.3,0.26,0.28,0.25,0.27,0.27,0.23,0.25,0.22,0.26,0.22,0.15,0.08,0.09,0.07,0.03,0.01,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0	94.5%
IND 114, GSW 95	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.49,0.53,0.53,0.49,0.47,0.43,0.43,0.45,0.51,0.36,0.43,0.44,0.47,0.56,0.49,0.42,0.39,0.34,0.29,0.36,0.39,0.33,0.33,0.37,0.34,0.32,0.3,0.29,0.23,0.25,0.21,0.31,0.23,0.13,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	94.5%