NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Dallas Mavericks	95		Excitement	7.8 [287]		MVP	Dirk Nowitzki (DAL): +52.2%
Miami Heat	93		Comeback	127.2 [8]		LVP	Jason Kidd (DAL): -25.3%

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dirk Nowitzki	0.52	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.15,-0.15,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.16,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.22,-0.22,0.52	-0.05	0.57	-0.01	22	51%	0.68	5	-0.16	3	100%	0.02
Tyson Chandler	0.09	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.07	0.02	-0.00	6	65%	0.09	0	0.00	8	62%	-0.03
Shawn Marion	0.07	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.08,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.06	0.00	-0.01	14	67%	0.13	3	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
DeShawn Stevenson	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.05	-0.01	0.01	6	75%	0.07	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Brian Cardinal	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Peja Stojakovic	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Brendan Haywood	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	2	50%	0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jason Terry	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.03,-0.02,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.02	-0.01	0.04	11	57%	0.06	2	-0.09	6	100%	0.03
Jose Juan Barea	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.03	-0.00	7	31%	-0.06	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Jason Kidd	-0.25	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.14,-0.14,-0.25,-0.25	-0.10	-0.15	-0.00	7	43%	-0.03	5	-0.22	0	0%	0.00

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mario Chalmers	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.25	0.25	-0.02	0.25	-0.01	8	45%	0.27	1	-0.02	4	50%	-0.03
Mike Bibby	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.11	0.04	0.01	8	87%	0.18	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Dwyane Wade	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.23,0.23,0.26,0.3,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.1	0.10	0.21	-0.09	0.02	20	69%	0.12	1	-0.02	12	67%	-0.02
Joel Anthony	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
LeBron James	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.06	-0.01	15	59%	0.08	5	-0.13	4	50%	-0.03
Mike Miller	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.05	-0.02	0.00	3	0%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Bosh	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.15,-0.12,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.11	-0.06	-0.01	16	33%	-0.07	2	-0.09	4	100%	0.03
Udonis Haslem	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.18,-0.18	-0.18	-0.05	-0.12	0.00	3	33%	-0.05	2	-0.13	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.1	2.7	35.7	19.7	29.6	3.4	39.5	158.7
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.4	27.2	2.4	33.9	140.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +44.3%

DAL +1.9%

DAL +26.9%

MIA -24.0%

DAL +0.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DAL	MIA	NBA	DAL	MIA	NBA
this game	15.7	16.7	15.5	108.0	103.3	105.7
season	15.7	16.0		108.5	109.0
opponent	15.6	15.7		102.3	103.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DAL	15.0	16.0	17.3	14.4	15.7
MIA	16.3	16.0	16.2	18.3	16.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jason Terry	57	59	0.82	-0.32	1.13	0.43	13	-11	24	15.0	17.0	-2.00	16.7	16.7	-0.05
Dirk Nowitzki	76	78	0.76	-0.26	1.02	0.38	13	-11	24	15.7	15.7	0.00	16.8	15.8	0.97
Tyson Chandler	67	69	0.57	-0.07	0.65	0.46	4	-2	6	16.1	14.3	1.76	17.0	15.6	1.38
Jason Kidd	68	69	0.55	-0.05	0.61	0.53	1	1	0	16.0	14.6	1.32	16.9	15.9	1.01
Shawn Marion	74	77	0.51	-0.01	0.52	0.48	1	1	0	15.4	17.1	-1.67	17.1	13.9	3.22
Brendan Haywood	16	17	0.08	0.42	-0.35	-0.07	5	-3	8	13.7	16.1	-2.35	16.6	16.7	-0.11
Peja Stojakovic	10	10	-0.12	0.62	-0.74	0.09	-7	9	-16	15.5	15.7	-0.19	16.0	16.8	-0.76
Brian Cardinal	2	2	-0.14	0.64	-0.78	-0.02	-4	6	-10	16.5	15.7	0.85	15.0	16.7	-1.72
DeShawn Stevenson	42	41	-0.19	0.69	-0.88	-0.04	-5	7	-12	16.7	14.8	1.91	15.9	17.3	-1.42
Jose Juan Barea	28	28	-0.34	0.84	-1.18	-0.02	-11	13	-24	15.7	15.7	0.01	15.2	17.3	-2.07

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mike Bibby	41	41	0.22	-0.72	0.93	0.01	7	-9	16	16.5	16.8	-0.35	16.3	15.1	1.17
Mike Miller	30	30	0.10	-0.60	0.69	0.18	-3	1	-4	16.4	16.8	-0.47	14.7	16.2	-1.52
Joel Anthony	27	27	-0.05	-0.45	0.39	0.01	-2	0	-2	17.2	16.4	0.78	15.3	15.8	-0.49
Dwyane Wade	78	78	-0.34	-0.16	-0.17	-0.48	5	-7	12	16.4	18.5	-2.10	16.3	11.1	5.16
Chris Bosh	74	73	-0.35	-0.15	-0.19	-0.44	3	-5	8	17.1	14.9	2.19	15.7	15.6	0.08
LeBron James	73	71	-0.53	0.03	-0.55	-0.38	-5	3	-8	17.2	14.5	2.72	15.7	15.7	-0.04
Mario Chalmers	48	45	-0.66	0.16	-0.82	-0.45	-7	5	-12	16.7	16.6	0.07	14.9	16.5	-1.60
Udonis Haslem	57	54	-1.06	0.56	-1.61	-0.70	-12	10	-22	16.1	17.7	-1.61	15.1	16.6	-1.50

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.48,0.44,0.46,0.47,0.55,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.49,0.5,0.51,0.47,0.4,0.38,0.39,0.42,0.39,0.36,0.28,0.39,0.41,0.5,0.48,0.57,0.64,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.65,0.69,0.82,0.74,0.68,0.66,0.66,0.67,0.8,0.88,0.99,0.99,0.95,0.95,0.84,0.75,0.74,0
Game		Similarity Score
CLE 88, BOS 87	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.42,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.43,0.45,0.42,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.55,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.52,0.44,0.48,0.44,0.54,0.49,0.5,0.46,0.52,0.48,0.45,0.61,0.58,0.68,0.73,0.76,0.88,0.79,0.81,0.74,0.75,0.72,0.73,0.89,0.95,0.93,0.97,0.96,0.94,0.74,0	91.2%
SEA 89, MIN 87	0.5,0.51,0.47,0.48,0.43,0.42,0.44,0.47,0.47,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.51,0.49,0.38,0.42,0.37,0.39,0.39,0.44,0.46,0.44,0.41,0.49,0.43,0.45,0.49,0.61,0.61,0.74,0.72,0.73,0.76,0.77,0.75,0.78,0.7,0.79,0.8,0.85,0.78,0.85,0.87,0.81,0.78,0.55,0.42,0	90.9%
IND 90, TOR 88	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.51,0.45,0.43,0.41,0.46,0.46,0.55,0.58,0.51,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.44,0.42,0.41,0.44,0.5,0.58,0.54,0.51,0.67,0.76,0.82,0.77,0.81,0.76,0.7,0.68,0.81,0.81,0.71,0.67,0.77,0.79,0.88,0.93,0.9,0.78,0.76,0.58,0	90.6%