NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Dallas Mavericks	84		Excitement	6.5 [519]		MVP	LeBron James (MIA): +26.0%
Miami Heat	92		Comeback	2.5 [643]		LVP	Jose Juan Barea (DAL): -11.4%

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
DeShawn Stevenson	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.06	0.05	0.00	3	100%	0.11	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dirk Nowitzki	0.09	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0.01,0.03,0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.06	0.03	0.01	18	56%	0.16	2	-0.06	12	100%	0.07
Tyson Chandler	-0.00	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	-0.01	0.01	4	69%	0.06	2	-0.06	5	60%	-0.03
Shawn Marion	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.00	-0.01	-0.00	12	55%	0.08	3	-0.08	5	80%	0.01
Brendan Haywood	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0.00	1	37%	-0.01	0	0.00	6	50%	-0.05
Jason Terry	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.08,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.01	-0.05	-0.00	10	50%	0.00	1	-0.04	4	75%	-0.00
Peja Stojakovic	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.05	-0.02	0.00	3	0%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jason Kidd	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09	-0.02	-0.03	0.03	8	56%	0.00	3	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Jose Juan Barea	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.09	-0.04	-0.02	8	12%	-0.11	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
LeBron James	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.13,0.23,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.26,0.26,0.26	0.26	0.17	0.09	0.00	16	71%	0.30	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Dwyane Wade	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.00	0.06	-0.01	19	51%	0.15	3	-0.08	5	40%	-0.03
Mike Miller	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.01	0.04	-0.01	5	60%	0.09	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Juwan Howard	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.02	0.00	1	50%	0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Mario Chalmers	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0	0.00	0.02	-0.02	-0.00	8	60%	0.07	2	-0.06	4	75%	-0.01
Udonis Haslem	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.04	0.03	0.00	8	41%	0.06	2	-0.08	1	100%	0.01
Joel Anthony	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.02	0.00	1	0%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Mike Bibby	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	-0.01	4	0%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Bosh	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.14,-0.14,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.04	-0.03	0.02	18	40%	-0.09	0	0.00	12	75%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.6	2.7	33.2	19.7	28.7	2.7	43.3	158.9
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.4	27.2	2.4	33.9	140.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +29.0%

DAL -0.5%

MIA +23.5%

DAL -2.3%

MIA +0.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DAL	MIA	NBA	DAL	MIA	NBA
this game	14.9	19.0	15.5	97.7	109.5	105.7
season	15.7	16.0		108.5	109.0
opponent	15.6	15.7		102.3	103.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DAL	15.8	16.5	14.3	13.3	14.9
MIA	21.3	17.0	17.8	20.0	19.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
DeShawn Stevenson	24	24	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	0.04	-5	-3	-2	15.1	14.9	0.20	20.8	18.3	2.52
Peja Stojakovic	29	28	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.07	-3	-5	2	13.8	15.5	-1.79	17.4	19.8	-2.34
Jose Juan Barea	33	31	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.03	-6	-2	-4	14.9	15.0	-0.05	18.5	19.3	-0.85
Brendan Haywood	27	26	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.05	-6	-2	-4	14.9	15.0	-0.08	18.3	19.3	-0.99
Tyson Chandler	59	58	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.22	-2	-6	4	15.0	14.9	0.08	19.3	18.3	0.99
Dirk Nowitzki	72	71	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.26	-2	-6	4	14.9	15.2	-0.33	18.9	19.6	-0.74
Shawn Marion	64	61	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.13	-9	1	-10	15.4	13.5	1.94	18.8	19.4	-0.56
Jason Kidd	64	63	-0.41	-0.09	-0.31	-0.20	-7	-1	-6	15.4	13.7	1.63	19.2	18.2	1.00
Jason Terry	58	58	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.41	0	-8	8	14.6	15.7	-1.20	19.3	18.3	1.04

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Udonis Haslem	56	54	0.54	-0.04	0.57	0.30	8	0	8	18.4	20.2	-1.79	13.9	16.7	-2.78
LeBron James	79	81	0.52	-0.02	0.54	0.26	9	-1	10	19.2	15.4	3.82	15.0	14.6	0.36
Chris Bosh	68	70	0.47	0.03	0.45	0.15	11	-3	14	19.0	19.1	-0.09	15.2	13.7	1.54
Dwyane Wade	65	67	0.37	0.13	0.25	0.17	7	1	6	19.2	18.4	0.73	15.2	14.0	1.21
Mike Miller	35	36	0.37	0.13	0.24	0.31	2	6	-4	19.0	19.0	0.02	14.8	15.0	-0.23
Mario Chalmers	54	53	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.10	8	0	8	17.8	21.1	-3.23	14.2	16.1	-1.86
Juwan Howard	14	14	0.15	0.35	-0.21	0.09	2	6	-4	18.6	19.1	-0.50	13.6	15.2	-1.64
Mike Bibby	22	25	-0.08	0.58	-0.66	-0.02	-2	10	-12	20.3	18.5	1.80	16.0	14.5	1.44
Joel Anthony	27	30	-0.18	0.68	-0.86	-0.03	-5	13	-18	20.6	18.2	2.42	16.7	14.0	2.70

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.57,0.57,0.55,0.53,0.58,0.54,0.48,0.53,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.59,0.59,0.54,0.49,0.44,0.5,0.43,0.28,0.39,0.33,0.42,0.42,0.35,0.45,0.44,0.44,0.52,0.66,0.7,0.67,0.67,0.68,0.69,0.85,0.87,0.89,0.97,0.99,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
DET 75, ATL 89	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.57,0.54,0.55,0.55,0.61,0.67,0.67,0.63,0.61,0.54,0.56,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.56,0.52,0.47,0.56,0.54,0.44,0.44,0.42,0.46,0.4,0.49,0.42,0.42,0.38,0.38,0.48,0.41,0.48,0.52,0.62,0.66,0.7,0.71,0.63,0.78,0.88,0.96,0.98,1,1,1,1	94.4%
GSW 98, LAC 111	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.5,0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.43,0.51,0.51,0.58,0.5,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.54,0.6,0.56,0.53,0.59,0.44,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.43,0.48,0.42,0.39,0.39,0.45,0.28,0.38,0.37,0.4,0.51,0.7,0.74,0.62,0.76,0.85,0.78,0.76,0.78,0.96,0.98,0.99,1,1	93.4%
WAS 91, BOS 98	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.55,0.53,0.57,0.53,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.53,0.54,0.55,0.53,0.56,0.63,0.56,0.59,0.54,0.51,0.46,0.37,0.4,0.37,0.39,0.42,0.48,0.45,0.45,0.44,0.48,0.44,0.4,0.54,0.57,0.57,0.67,0.76,0.74,0.71,0.78,0.9,0.84,0.83,0.91,1	93.1%