NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Oklahoma City Thunder	96		Excitement	8.4 [188]		MVP	Shawn Marion (DAL): +35.0%
Dallas Mavericks	100		Comeback	7.9 [258]		LVP	Eric Maynor (OKC): -20.1%

Oklahoma City Thunder
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
James Harden	0.19	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.21,0.21,0.24,0.24,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.2,0.2,0.19	0.11	0.06	-0.02	11	72%	0.24	2	-0.05	10	80%	0.00
Daequan Cook	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Thabo Sefolosha	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Durant	-0.00	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.12,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.06,0.01,0	-0.01	0.03	0.02	20	50%	0.10	3	-0.11	6	67%	-0.02
Nick Collison	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,-0.03	0.05	-0.09	-0.01	9	67%	0.13	1	-0.17	0	0%	0.00
Kendrick Perkins	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.00	-0.01	2	0%	-0.02	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Serge Ibaka	-0.07	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.06	-0.02	-0.00	6	17%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Russell Westbrook	-0.09	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.03,0.02,0,-0.07,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.09,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.15,0.13,0.17,0.14,0.18,0.18,0.16,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.08,0.08,-0.13,-0.09	-0.01	-0.12	-0.05	28	48%	0.15	3	-0.24	9	100%	0.08
Eric Maynor	-0.20	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.2	-0.04	-0.16	0.00	6	42%	-0.12	2	-0.08	0	0%	0.00

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Shawn Marion	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.17,0.17,0.35	0.35	0.11	0.24	-0.00	17	63%	0.41	2	-0.06	7	86%	0.04
Dirk Nowitzki	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.18,0.17	0.17	0.05	0.14	0.01	15	67%	0.30	5	-0.12	9	100%	0.07
Brendan Haywood	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.06	0.03	0.00	1	87%	0.09	0	0.00	6	83%	0.02
Jose Juan Barea	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.04	-0.02	0.00	11	54%	0.02	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.02
Peja Stojakovic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.01	0.02	-0.00	4	37%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tyson Chandler	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	7	53%	0.05	2	-0.06	3	100%	0.02
Jason Kidd	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.10	-0.02	-0.01	7	14%	-0.08	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
DeShawn Stevenson	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.11	-0.02	-0.01	7	6%	-0.11	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Jason Terry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.09,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.01	-0.14	0.00	9	52%	-0.06	2	-0.09	5	80%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.8	3.5	32.4	18.7	32.2	3.3	40.4	159.2
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.4	27.2	2.4	33.9	140.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +5.8%

DAL +16.4%

OKC -13.1%

DAL +33.5%

DAL +7.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	OKC	DAL	NBA	OKC	DAL	NBA
this game	15.7	14.9	15.5	104.3	104.2	105.7
season	15.0	15.7		108.8	108.5
opponent	15.7	15.6		103.8	105.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
OKC	12.5	17.0	16.9	17.0	15.7
DAL	14.6	15.7	15.9	13.7	14.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Oklahoma City Thunder
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kendrick Perkins	53	56	0.09	-0.59	0.67	0.06	1	-5	6	15.1	16.5	-1.41	15.4	14.3	1.12
Daequan Cook	7	9	0.04	-0.54	0.59	-0.10	5	-9	14	15.6	15.7	-0.17	13.2	15.1	-1.88
Serge Ibaka	27	29	0.01	-0.51	0.53	0.07	-2	-2	0	14.6	16.2	-1.66	15.7	14.6	1.04
Thabo Sefolosha	27	29	-0.06	-0.44	0.39	0.15	-7	3	-10	14.9	16.1	-1.19	15.8	14.6	1.24
Nick Collison	72	73	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.42	3	-7	10	16.2	14.2	1.95	15.0	14.7	0.30
James Harden	66	68	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.51	3	-7	10	16.2	14.6	1.55	14.6	15.7	-1.11
Eric Maynor	42	42	-0.59	0.09	-0.68	-0.38	-7	3	-10	16.2	15.4	0.81	14.3	15.4	-1.18
Kevin Durant	81	85	-0.62	0.12	-0.74	-0.42	-7	3	-10	15.8	15.0	0.83	14.9	15.0	-0.08
Russell Westbrook	85	89	-0.63	0.13	-0.76	-0.37	-9	5	-14	15.7	15.6	0.17	14.8	16.6	-1.77

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jason Kidd	66	63	0.80	-0.30	1.10	0.48	11	-7	18	15.3	14.0	1.35	16.1	14.9	1.26
Tyson Chandler	47	46	0.66	-0.16	0.81	0.42	8	-4	12	15.6	14.3	1.23	16.4	15.1	1.33
Shawn Marion	79	76	0.65	-0.15	0.80	0.36	10	-6	16	14.5	16.8	-2.30	16.0	14.2	1.79
Dirk Nowitzki	81	77	0.58	-0.08	0.67	0.35	8	-4	12	14.6	16.7	-2.06	15.5	16.7	-1.12
Jason Terry	59	59	0.49	0.01	0.47	0.37	4	0	4	14.6	15.4	-0.73	16.3	14.8	1.47
DeShawn Stevenson	51	48	-0.08	0.58	-0.66	-0.05	-1	5	-6	15.2	14.6	0.57	15.1	16.5	-1.39
Peja Stojakovic	18	18	-0.13	0.63	-0.76	0.08	-7	11	-18	16.3	14.6	1.73	14.3	16.1	-1.80
Brendan Haywood	32	30	-0.14	0.64	-0.78	0.01	-5	9	-14	13.8	15.5	-1.72	15.1	16.0	-0.93
Jose Juan Barea	47	43	-0.33	0.83	-1.16	-0.10	-8	12	-20	15.3	14.6	0.64	15.3	16.1	-0.84

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.54,0.56,0.57,0.56,0.6,0.57,0.59,0.55,0.53,0.47,0.44,0.48,0.45,0.46,0.4,0.38,0.42,0.37,0.36,0.41,0.36,0.33,0.44,0.46,0.4,0.4,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.42,0.45,0.59,0.44,0.3,0.29,0.34,0.26,0.3,0.17,0.15,0.26,0.19,0.22,0.25,0.16,0.23,0.58,1
Game		Similarity Score
POR 107, MIN 108	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.54,0.54,0.61,0.55,0.59,0.57,0.49,0.55,0.5,0.49,0.49,0.4,0.4,0.47,0.42,0.48,0.48,0.46,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.48,0.42,0.48,0.45,0.39,0.45,0.45,0.34,0.41,0.4,0.28,0.15,0.22,0.18,0.21,0.15,0.13,0.24,0.33,0.25,0.22,0.45,0.58,1	91.9%
DET 111, OKC 112	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.56,0.58,0.62,0.57,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.44,0.46,0.38,0.44,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.37,0.27,0.34,0.36,0.44,0.43,0.5,0.45,0.51,0.55,0.42,0.42,0.45,0.48,0.45,0.37,0.33,0.28,0.19,0.15,0.12,0.21,0.28,0.2,0.11,0.1,0.14,0.11,0.06,0.27,1	91.6%
VAN 85, SEA 87	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.47,0.44,0.4,0.44,0.42,0.47,0.47,0.44,0.37,0.44,0.42,0.44,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.38,0.35,0.41,0.43,0.41,0.4,0.32,0.34,0.34,0.33,0.29,0.42,0.36,0.46,0.22,0.31,0.16,0.11,0.42,1	91.1%