NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Dallas Mavericks	87		Excitement	5.4 [723]		MVP	George Hill (SAS): +29.3%
San Antonio Spurs	97		Comeback	1.1 [914]		LVP	Jason Terry (DAL): -8.6%

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dirk Nowitzki	0.27	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.14,0.12,0.18,0.15,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.19,0.19,0.23,0.26,0.26,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27	0.21	0.09	0.03	21	69%	0.31	1	-0.04	6	83%	0.01
Caron Butler	0.06	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.10	0.01	0.05	18	60%	0.08	1	-0.02	6	100%	0.02
Rodrigue Beaubois	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.06,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05	0.02	0.01	-0.01	13	55%	0.08	2	-0.03	3	33%	-0.03
Eduardo Najera	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brendan Haywood	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.00	0.00	0.02	2	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Erick Dampier	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.01	1	0%	-0.00	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Shawn Marion	-0.04	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	8	37%	-0.03	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Jose Juan Barea	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.07	0.00	-0.02	3	0%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jason Kidd	-0.07	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.08	-0.00	-0.01	6	25%	-0.02	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Jason Terry	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.12	0.02	-0.02	7	14%	-0.05	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
George Hill	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.12,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.22,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29	0.29	0.12	0.17	-0.01	12	70%	0.31	1	-0.02	6	83%	-0.01
Antonio McDyess	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.05	0.05	0.01	6	67%	0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Manu Ginobili	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.06	0.01	0.01	19	52%	0.07	1	-0.02	12	83%	-0.01
Tony Parker	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02	0.02	-0.03	0.04	-0.02	12	38%	0.02	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.02
DeJuan Blair	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.01	3	67%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Keith Bogans	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Garrett Temple	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ian Mahinmi	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Matt Bonner	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	4	50%	0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Tim Duncan	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.08	0.01	-0.02	17	41%	0.02	3	-0.07	7	14%	-0.09
Richard Jefferson	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	5	50%	-0.00	2	-0.06	4	75%	-0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.5	2.8	37.2	19.6	28.8	2.6	34.5	153.0
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +34.5%

DAL -12.4%

SAS +13.6%

SAS +12.4%

SAS +2.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DAL	SAS	NBA	DAL	SAS	NBA
this game	15.8	17.1	15.3	97.8	112.8	106.0
season	15.2	15.9		107.2	108.2
opponent	15.1	15.5		103.4	104.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DAL	16.3	15.1	15.6	16.4	15.8
SAS	17.2	15.6	16.4	19.6	17.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Rodrigue Beaubois	41	41	0.09	-0.59	0.67	-0.21	10	-20	30	14.0	17.4	-3.35	16.1	18.0	-1.92
Erick Dampier	40	40	0.07	-0.57	0.64	-0.28	12	-22	34	15.0	16.5	-1.46	16.3	17.8	-1.55
Shawn Marion	47	44	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	-0.18	2	-12	14	16.5	15.1	1.35	18.2	15.9	2.30
Eduardo Najera	8	7	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	0.09	-9	-1	-8	17.5	15.7	1.83	14.4	17.3	-2.91
Jose Juan Barea	13	11	-0.26	-0.24	-0.01	0.15	-14	4	-18	15.9	15.8	0.11	13.5	17.6	-4.08
Jason Kidd	78	77	-0.32	-0.18	-0.15	-0.35	1	-11	12	15.9	15.1	0.84	17.8	11.4	6.32
Brendan Haywood	38	36	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	0.00	-13	3	-16	16.3	15.5	0.75	18.3	16.3	2.02
Caron Butler	76	70	-0.42	-0.08	-0.33	-0.18	-8	-2	-6	15.6	17.2	-1.64	16.7	19.0	-2.33
Jason Terry	35	35	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.03	-15	5	-20	17.5	14.8	2.73	17.0	17.2	-0.13
Dirk Nowitzki	69	69	-0.52	0.02	-0.53	-0.05	-16	6	-22	15.8	15.9	-0.15	17.4	15.8	1.67

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tony Parker	64	63	0.66	-0.16	0.81	0.25	14	-4	18	17.2	16.7	0.57	16.0	15.5	0.47
George Hill	75	79	0.52	-0.02	0.54	0.23	10	0	10	16.9	18.5	-1.55	15.9	15.4	0.49
Antonio McDyess	44	45	0.49	0.01	0.47	-0.04	18	-8	26	17.9	16.3	1.55	16.2	15.5	0.75
Tim Duncan	76	78	0.38	0.12	0.25	0.32	2	8	-6	17.5	14.2	3.29	15.9	15.5	0.43
Manu Ginobili	72	73	0.34	0.16	0.19	0.20	5	5	0	16.4	20.6	-4.14	15.3	18.3	-3.02
DeJuan Blair	10	11	0.12	0.38	-0.25	-0.11	8	2	6	14.2	17.5	-3.29	15.5	15.9	-0.43
Keith Bogans	14	13	0.07	0.43	-0.37	0.07	0	10	-10	15.9	17.3	-1.40	17.6	15.5	2.09
Matt Bonner	23	25	0.00	0.50	-0.49	0.06	-2	12	-14	15.7	17.6	-1.98	14.4	16.4	-1.94
Garrett Temple	0	1	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.00	0	10	-10	0.0	17.1	-17.10	16.0	15.8	0.17
Ian Mahinmi	0	1	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.00	0	10	-10	0.0	17.1	-17.10	16.0	15.8	0.17
Richard Jefferson	52	56	-0.08	0.58	-0.65	0.07	-5	15	-20	18.5	15.0	3.43	16.2	15.2	1.03

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.57,0.6,0.62,0.6,0.59,0.61,0.63,0.7,0.74,0.76,0.77,0.85,0.88,0.87,0.89,0.85,0.87,0.92,0.91,0.9,0.88,0.86,0.84,0.74,0.75,0.66,0.58,0.67,0.62,0.55,0.62,0.63,0.63,0.64,0.78,0.78,0.78,0.83,0.81,0.64,0.65,0.78,0.93,0.95,0.99,0.99,1
Game		Similarity Score
SEA 98, LAL 109	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.54,0.59,0.63,0.68,0.73,0.73,0.72,0.74,0.81,0.77,0.8,0.83,0.8,0.83,0.85,0.89,0.88,0.87,0.84,0.87,0.86,0.75,0.79,0.69,0.66,0.61,0.67,0.71,0.75,0.66,0.73,0.71,0.64,0.78,0.74,0.62,0.67,0.63,0.53,0.6,0.82,0.86,0.99,1,1,1	92.9%
LAL 102, CHA 112	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.58,0.57,0.61,0.6,0.62,0.62,0.66,0.7,0.77,0.73,0.78,0.77,0.83,0.85,0.83,0.82,0.82,0.86,0.82,0.81,0.83,0.78,0.73,0.69,0.72,0.73,0.73,0.76,0.71,0.65,0.69,0.76,0.67,0.64,0.66,0.74,0.71,0.76,0.73,0.83,0.8,0.88,0.89,0.84,0.94,1,1	92.8%
IND 126, CHA 133	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.57,0.69,0.71,0.74,0.72,0.68,0.67,0.74,0.74,0.74,0.78,0.76,0.84,0.77,0.82,0.87,0.84,0.85,0.89,0.88,0.84,0.86,0.84,0.87,0.78,0.7,0.71,0.71,0.62,0.59,0.59,0.63,0.71,0.7,0.82,0.85,0.89,0.85,0.83,0.76,0.93,0.9,0.99,1,1,1	92.6%