NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Atlanta Hawks	89		Excitement	2.9 [1198]		MVP	John Salmons (MIL): +14.2%
Milwaukee Bucks	107		Comeback	1.1 [787]		LVP	Josh Smith (ATL): -9.8%

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Joe Johnson	0.06	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.04	0.01	-0.01	22	49%	0.08	1	-0.02	7	86%	0.01
Al Horford	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.04	-0.00	0.02	9	56%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jeff Teague	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	0.00	0.02	3	67%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mario West	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Zaza Pachulia	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.14	0.00	0.14	7	80%	-0.00	0	0.00	6	67%	0.00
Joe Smith	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Maurice Evans	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.05	0.00	-0.03	2	0%	-0.02	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marvin Williams	-0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.06	-0.01	-0.03	7	40%	-0.03	2	0.00	6	83%	0.01
Jamal Crawford	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	0.01	0.02	13	42%	-0.03	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Mike Bibby	-0.08	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.10	0.00	-0.02	9	33%	-0.04	3	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Josh Smith	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.18	-0.01	-0.09	12	23%	-0.05	3	-0.05	6	50%	-0.02

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
John Salmons	0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.18	0.00	0.04	11	88%	0.15	1	-0.01	3	100%	0.00
Brandon Jennings	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.07	0.00	-0.00	11	59%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Luc Mbah a Moute	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.07	0.00	0.02	7	75%	0.07	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Kurt Thomas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.06	0.00	0.01	4	100%	0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Ersan Ilyasova	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.04	0.00	-0.00	8	58%	0.06	1	-0.02	3	67%	-0.00
Primoz Brezec	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.04	0.00	0.04	2	100%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Royal Ivey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	2	50%	0.00	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Charlie Bell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Luke Ridnour	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	0.00	0.01	11	50%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jerry Stackhouse	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0.01	11	53%	0.00	3	-0.02	8	100%	0.00
Carlos Delfino	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.09	0.01	-0.06	9	33%	0.02	3	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Dan Gadzuric	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	3	33%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.1	3.6	30.0	19.4	25.9	3.0	32.3	139.4
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL +56.6%

ATL -3.0%

ATL -4.4%

ATL -2.4%

MIL +3.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ATL	MIL	NBA	ATL	MIL	NBA
this game	16.3	15.8	15.3	98.9	120.2	106.0
season	16.0	15.5		109.4	103.3
opponent	15.5	15.8		101.8	106.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ATL	16.3	16.7	18.2	14.3	16.3
MIL	15.0	18.4	15.2	15.0	15.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jeff Teague	16	16	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.26	9	-27	36	11.2	17.5	-6.27	15.2	16.0	-0.71
Mario West	14	14	-0.02	-0.48	0.47	-0.25	8	-26	34	9.9	17.5	-7.68	13.6	16.2	-2.60
Joe Smith	9	8	-0.05	-0.45	0.39	0.01	-2	-16	14	14.9	16.5	-1.62	15.9	15.8	0.05
Zaza Pachulia	36	37	-0.09	-0.41	0.31	-0.12	1	-19	20	15.1	17.2	-2.10	16.8	15.2	1.63
Maurice Evans	21	21	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	0.05	-5	-13	8	16.0	16.4	-0.39	16.4	15.6	0.78
Jamal Crawford	53	53	-0.25	-0.25	-0.00	0.01	-9	-9	0	15.2	17.9	-2.67	14.5	17.7	-3.22
Mike Bibby	49	50	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	0.08	-14	-4	-10	18.4	13.9	4.44	16.6	14.8	1.80
Marvin Williams	64	64	-0.38	-0.12	-0.25	-0.03	-12	-6	-6	16.3	16.5	-0.22	15.7	16.2	-0.46
Josh Smith	63	62	-0.39	-0.11	-0.29	0.25	-22	4	-26	17.7	13.1	4.57	16.7	13.7	3.00
Al Horford	56	54	-0.42	-0.08	-0.33	0.14	-19	1	-20	17.4	14.6	2.87	16.0	15.5	0.52
Joe Johnson	69	66	-0.47	-0.03	-0.43	0.27	-25	7	-32	17.1	13.8	3.37	15.3	17.5	-2.22

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
John Salmons	54	55	0.50	0.00	0.50	-0.35	29	-11	40	16.4	15.0	1.42	17.9	13.9	4.07
Luc Mbah a Moute	52	50	0.49	0.01	0.49	-0.30	27	-9	36	15.8	15.9	-0.06	19.0	13.0	5.93
Brandon Jennings	45	46	0.46	0.04	0.43	-0.15	21	-3	24	15.6	16.0	-0.38	18.6	14.0	4.63
Kurt Thomas	47	47	0.43	0.07	0.36	-0.07	17	1	16	15.0	16.7	-1.72	18.0	14.6	3.38
Carlos Delfino	55	55	0.30	0.20	0.10	-0.05	12	6	6	16.6	14.5	2.11	17.1	15.1	1.97
Jerry Stackhouse	52	54	0.21	0.29	-0.08	0.12	3	15	-12	14.9	17.2	-2.28	14.7	18.8	-4.06
Dan Gadzuric	28	30	0.05	0.45	-0.40	-0.21	9	9	0	18.3	14.7	3.58	16.8	16.1	0.63
Luke Ridnour	31	32	0.04	0.46	-0.43	-0.17	7	11	-4	17.0	15.2	1.74	15.3	16.9	-1.55
Ersan Ilyasova	42	44	0.02	0.48	-0.47	0.16	-5	23	-28	15.8	15.9	-0.04	13.7	18.8	-5.12
Primoz Brezec	13	12	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.29	-10	28	-38	13.8	16.2	-2.41	10.3	17.3	-6.94
Royal Ivey	13	12	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.29	-10	28	-38	13.8	16.2	-2.41	10.3	17.3	-6.94
Charlie Bell	13	13	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.29	-10	28	-38	13.8	16.2	-2.41	10.6	17.3	-6.70

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.62,0.69,0.66,0.67,0.77,0.78,0.82,0.8,0.81,0.81,0.8,0.84,0.84,0.87,0.84,0.88,0.82,0.84,0.88,0.89,0.82,0.88,0.82,0.78,0.87,0.92,0.94,0.93,0.92,0.92,0.97,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
ORL 85, NOH 117	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.57,0.55,0.62,0.68,0.64,0.69,0.71,0.75,0.81,0.81,0.78,0.81,0.8,0.82,0.86,0.9,0.84,0.83,0.88,0.88,0.88,0.87,0.84,0.79,0.74,0.78,0.87,0.9,0.94,0.92,0.97,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	97.0%
MIL 78, IND 111	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.58,0.63,0.68,0.71,0.73,0.72,0.76,0.8,0.79,0.81,0.85,0.82,0.8,0.84,0.87,0.84,0.83,0.83,0.86,0.89,0.92,0.84,0.81,0.86,0.89,0.91,0.93,0.96,0.97,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.8%
CHA 84, NOP 105	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.55,0.58,0.63,0.66,0.63,0.68,0.74,0.76,0.78,0.79,0.82,0.88,0.88,0.87,0.84,0.85,0.87,0.83,0.85,0.84,0.88,0.89,0.88,0.92,0.86,0.89,0.91,0.94,0.96,0.94,0.94,0.92,0.95,0.94,0.96,0.96,0.98,0.97,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.7%