NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	92		Excitement	3.6 [1080]		MVP	Mike Bibby (ATL): +15.5%
Atlanta Hawks	102		Comeback	1.0 [1226]		LVP	John Salmons (MIL): -7.0%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Luc Mbah a Moute	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.03	0.06	0.00	0.04	5	73%	0.03	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.01
Brandon Jennings	0.02	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.12	-0.02	0.09	25	63%	0.07	3	-0.05	4	50%	-0.01
Dan Gadzuric	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Luke Ridnour	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.00	-0.01	0.00	8	50%	0.01	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.01
Jerry Stackhouse	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.05	0.00	-0.04	10	30%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Carlos Delfino	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	4	40%	-0.02	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.01
Ersan Ilyasova	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	0.00	0.01	6	69%	0.04	4	-0.07	4	50%	-0.02
Kurt Thomas	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.00	-0.00	6	33%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
John Salmons	-0.07	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.00	-0.00	18	40%	-0.02	2	-0.05	4	100%	0.02

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mike Bibby	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.14,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.14	0.04	0.02	9	106%	0.17	3	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Marvin Williams	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.10	0.00	0.04	5	86%	0.07	0	0.00	4	100%	0.01
Jamal Crawford	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.03	0.02	-0.01	11	57%	0.11	2	-0.04	8	75%	-0.01
Joe Johnson	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.04	21	50%	0.05	3	-0.03	2	100%	0.00
Al Horford	0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	-0.01	-0.02	14	52%	0.03	3	-0.03	1	100%	0.00
Jeff Teague	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mario West	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Josh Smith	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.04	-0.01	0.03	10	55%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.04
Zaza Pachulia	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	2	50%	0.01	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Maurice Evans	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	4	25%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joe Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.6	1.8	34.0	18.0	30.6	1.0	36.0	149.0
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ATL +37.5%

MIL -2.5%

ATL +0.6%

ATL +8.4%

ATL +6.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	ATL	NBA	MIL	ATL	NBA
this game	15.8	16.8	15.3	104.5	114.6	106.0
season	15.5	16.0		103.3	109.4
opponent	15.8	15.5		106.0	101.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIL	19.2	15.3	14.1	14.4	15.8
ATL	13.0	16.0	19.5	19.0	16.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ersan Ilyasova	44	43	-0.14	-0.36	0.23	-0.17	1	-11	12	15.5	16.1	-0.59	16.6	16.9	-0.26
Dan Gadzuric	12	12	-0.15	-0.35	0.19	0.08	-8	-2	-6	20.2	15.1	5.18	12.4	17.4	-5.02
Kurt Thomas	56	56	-0.20	-0.30	0.09	-0.32	4	-14	18	14.6	17.8	-3.21	17.2	16.0	1.21
Jerry Stackhouse	50	52	-0.25	-0.25	-0.01	-0.22	-1	-9	8	15.2	16.5	-1.23	15.9	17.9	-1.98
Carlos Delfino	41	41	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	0.01	-11	1	-12	16.4	15.3	1.11	17.6	16.0	1.61
Luke Ridnour	32	33	-0.34	-0.16	-0.17	0.02	-12	2	-14	17.2	14.9	2.32	14.4	18.2	-3.77
Brandon Jennings	72	72	-0.34	-0.16	-0.19	-0.14	-7	-3	-4	15.7	15.9	-0.12	17.5	13.7	3.78
Luc Mbah a Moute	56	57	-0.38	-0.12	-0.25	-0.03	-12	2	-14	15.8	15.7	0.13	17.2	16.1	1.10
John Salmons	77	79	-0.39	-0.11	-0.27	-0.27	-4	-6	2	15.5	17.7	-2.23	17.3	12.4	4.92

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Joe Johnson	79	78	0.62	-0.12	0.74	0.09	18	-8	26	16.5	18.8	-2.29	16.1	13.6	2.45
Al Horford	65	63	0.51	-0.01	0.52	0.01	17	-7	24	17.3	15.4	1.84	16.0	15.1	0.91
Mike Bibby	59	58	0.49	0.01	0.48	0.11	13	-3	16	17.5	15.3	2.21	15.9	15.6	0.26
Josh Smith	69	68	0.32	0.18	0.15	0.12	7	3	4	17.4	14.6	2.73	15.8	15.8	-0.04
Jamal Crawford	52	53	0.26	0.24	0.01	0.14	4	6	-2	16.2	17.5	-1.24	15.9	15.5	0.43
Marvin Williams	50	49	0.21	0.29	-0.07	0.04	6	4	2	16.5	17.1	-0.51	16.0	15.5	0.42
Jeff Teague	11	10	0.09	0.41	-0.32	0.00	3	7	-4	17.4	16.7	0.68	15.9	15.8	0.14
Joe Smith	11	12	0.04	0.46	-0.41	0.04	0	10	-10	13.8	17.2	-3.36	16.0	15.7	0.26
Mario West	3	2	0.01	0.49	-0.49	0.07	-2	12	-14	14.7	16.8	-2.17	6.0	16.0	-10.00
Zaza Pachulia	24	25	-0.01	0.51	-0.52	0.20	-7	17	-24	15.4	17.3	-1.84	15.1	16.0	-0.91
Maurice Evans	22	22	-0.04	0.54	-0.59	0.22	-9	19	-28	17.0	16.7	0.25	14.5	16.2	-1.76

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.52,0.56,0.64,0.64,0.67,0.69,0.75,0.81,0.83,0.81,0.78,0.84,0.8,0.81,0.85,0.84,0.86,0.88,0.93,0.95,0.94,0.96,0.95,0.97,0.97,0.96,0.92,0.9,0.92,0.94,0.91,0.89,0.85,0.9,0.9,0.94,0.92,0.9,0.89,0.88,0.94,0.97,1,0.99,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
IND 102, ATL 118	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.54,0.59,0.6,0.68,0.72,0.69,0.72,0.79,0.8,0.82,0.79,0.82,0.79,0.77,0.85,0.8,0.86,0.91,0.95,0.94,0.95,0.96,0.96,0.96,0.98,0.96,0.97,0.95,0.93,0.92,0.93,0.91,0.85,0.87,0.9,0.93,0.94,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.6%
DEN 90, DAL 105	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.5,0.56,0.62,0.69,0.75,0.79,0.81,0.79,0.8,0.78,0.82,0.79,0.79,0.83,0.86,0.88,0.9,0.92,0.93,0.92,0.96,0.94,0.95,0.96,0.94,0.9,0.91,0.9,0.94,0.88,0.92,0.95,0.94,0.94,0.96,0.95,0.97,0.99,0.99,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1	96.3%
PHX 99, GSW 110	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.52,0.53,0.6,0.63,0.7,0.75,0.75,0.77,0.85,0.82,0.85,0.82,0.85,0.86,0.88,0.86,0.89,0.93,0.93,0.93,0.95,0.94,0.95,0.96,0.98,0.96,0.95,0.96,0.98,0.97,0.96,0.92,0.9,0.94,0.92,0.94,0.95,0.96,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.97,0.97,1,1,1	96.2%