NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	106		Excitement	8.9 [139]		MVP	Kobe Bryant (LAL): +35.0%
Los Angeles Lakers	103		Comeback	4.6 [110]		LVP	Derek Fisher (LAL): -33.5%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chauncey Billups	0.23	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.14,0.14,0.17,0.17,0.18,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.14,0.07,0.19,0.23	0.10	0.10	-0.04	15	59%	0.26	1	-0.03	16	81%	0.09
Linas Kleiza	0.20	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.15	0.05	0.00	8	89%	0.20	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Kenyon Martin	0.15	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.15	0.05	0.13	0.02	10	73%	0.26	3	-0.11	2	100%	0.01
Chris Andersen	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.01	-0.01	2	50%	0.01	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Carter	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dahntay Jones	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	0.01	-0.00	4	25%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nene	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	0.02	0.01	5	46%	0.06	2	-0.07	3	67%	0.01
Carmelo Anthony	-0.08	0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.05,-0.06,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.03,-0.06,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.13,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.03	-0.02	0.03	29	47%	0.10	4	-0.18	14	71%	0.02
J.R. Smith	-0.18	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.18,-0.18	-0.10	-0.09	-0.01	6	25%	-0.05	3	-0.13	0	0%	0.00

Los Angeles Lakers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kobe Bryant	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.09,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.21,0.35	0.35	0.14	0.23	0.02	20	64%	0.42	2	-0.07	10	100%	0.05
Lamar Odom	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.02	0.04	-0.01	9	50%	0.07	0	0.00	2	100%	0.03
Jordan Farmar	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andrew Bynum	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	0.00	0.01	8	47%	0.01	0	0.00	3	33%	-0.02
Shannon Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.01	-0.00	8	44%	0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.03
Trevor Ariza	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.2,0.12,0.12,0	-0.00	0.14	-0.12	0.03	7	91%	0.17	3	-0.17	8	75%	-0.03
Pau Gasol	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.03,0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03	-0.03	0.01	-0.03	0.01	8	65%	0.10	4	-0.13	10	70%	-0.07
Sasha Vujacic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.06	0.00	-0.02	4	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Luke Walton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.05	-0.02	-0.00	3	33%	-0.01	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Derek Fisher	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.19,-0.19,-0.29,-0.33	-0.33	-0.13	-0.22	-0.01	9	17%	-0.20	2	-0.13	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	29.1	3.5	33.2	18.8	33.0	3.0	45.0	165.6
league avg	26.4	2.4	30.1	16.5	27.1	2.4	33.3	140.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +3.7%

DEN +24.5%

DEN +8.2%

DEN +13.4%

DEN +0.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	LAL	NBA	DEN	LAL	NBA
this game	14.8	15.4	15.5	111.6	107.3	106.4
season	14.4	14.9		109.5	110.6
opponent	15.4	15.7		102.6	105.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	14.8	14.5	14.2	15.8	14.8
LAL	14.6	14.9	16.5	15.5	15.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Carmelo Anthony	85	85	0.78	-0.28	1.06	0.52	9	-6	15	14.6	16.8	-2.24	15.4	15.1	0.30
J.R. Smith	48	49	0.54	-0.04	0.57	0.45	3	0	3	14.7	14.9	-0.19	15.8	14.9	0.99
Chauncey Billups	87	87	0.50	0.00	0.49	0.44	2	1	1	14.8	15.1	-0.35	15.4	14.4	1.00
Chris Andersen	41	41	0.43	0.07	0.37	0.08	12	-9	21	14.3	15.1	-0.81	15.0	15.6	-0.53
Linas Kleiza	43	43	0.43	0.07	0.36	-0.04	16	-13	29	14.2	15.3	-1.04	15.6	15.2	0.41
Kenyon Martin	69	71	0.11	0.39	-0.28	0.32	-7	10	-17	15.0	14.3	0.68	15.0	16.5	-1.52
Nene	67	68	0.04	0.46	-0.42	0.30	-9	12	-21	15.0	14.2	0.83	15.3	15.5	-0.21
Anthony Carter	12	12	-0.07	0.57	-0.63	-0.01	-2	5	-7	15.1	14.8	0.32	14.4	15.5	-1.07
Dahntay Jones	23	24	-0.26	0.76	-1.01	0.01	-9	12	-21	16.4	14.3	2.16	15.8	15.2	0.64

Los Angeles Lakers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Andrew Bynum	35	37	0.18	-0.68	0.87	-0.02	7	-10	17	15.0	15.5	-0.51	15.5	14.3	1.17
Sasha Vujacic	12	11	0.07	-0.57	0.64	0.01	2	-5	7	14.1	15.5	-1.45	15.0	14.8	0.23
Luke Walton	37	35	-0.09	-0.41	0.31	-0.09	0	-3	3	15.9	15.0	0.96	15.2	14.5	0.68
Jordan Farmar	14	13	-0.21	-0.29	0.09	-0.06	-5	2	-7	14.6	15.5	-0.83	14.0	14.9	-0.93
Shannon Brown	32	31	-0.21	-0.29	0.07	-0.07	-5	2	-7	16.8	14.6	2.19	15.4	14.5	0.87
Lamar Odom	59	58	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.27	0	-3	3	14.8	16.2	-1.40	15.1	14.3	0.78
Derek Fisher	55	56	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.36	2	-5	7	15.2	15.5	-0.28	14.8	14.7	0.10
Kobe Bryant	79	79	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.35	0	-3	3	15.2	16.2	-1.07	14.6	15.6	-0.92
Pau Gasol	88	86	-0.57	0.07	-0.64	-0.42	-5	2	-7	15.5	13.6	1.89	14.7	15.6	-0.83
Trevor Ariza	69	69	-0.75	0.25	-1.00	-0.43	-11	8	-19	15.5	15.1	0.39	14.0	16.8	-2.76

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.55,0.55,0.6,0.65,0.64,0.66,0.66,0.7,0.72,0.7,0.73,0.78,0.74,0.77,0.75,0.79,0.77,0.64,0.5,0.48,0.55,0.58,0.61,0.52,0.58,0.71,0.69,0.63,0.63,0.64,0.54,0.48,0.34,0.2,0.28,0.53,0.59,0.54,0.31,0.36,0.25,0.26,0
Game		Similarity Score
NJN 89, ATL 83	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.43,0.46,0.49,0.54,0.57,0.57,0.59,0.62,0.58,0.64,0.63,0.62,0.58,0.6,0.62,0.58,0.58,0.63,0.75,0.77,0.7,0.67,0.63,0.66,0.58,0.52,0.55,0.52,0.62,0.59,0.59,0.63,0.48,0.48,0.46,0.43,0.29,0.28,0.27,0.37,0.47,0.46,0.39,0.28,0.15,0.26,0	91.4%
DAL 91, PHX 83	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.52,0.48,0.52,0.53,0.6,0.63,0.66,0.7,0.69,0.7,0.68,0.64,0.66,0.67,0.67,0.76,0.75,0.66,0.61,0.64,0.61,0.59,0.63,0.62,0.57,0.58,0.64,0.61,0.55,0.59,0.65,0.63,0.63,0.56,0.58,0.57,0.52,0.33,0.51,0.41,0.54,0.48,0.47,0.36,0.43,0.08,0	90.9%
UTA 97, ORL 93	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.52,0.55,0.54,0.58,0.62,0.64,0.57,0.6,0.65,0.7,0.74,0.81,0.8,0.79,0.81,0.78,0.76,0.77,0.66,0.69,0.58,0.59,0.5,0.55,0.49,0.55,0.61,0.67,0.77,0.78,0.69,0.66,0.77,0.64,0.58,0.57,0.29,0.33,0.27,0.36,0.47,0.67,0.45,0.63,0.31,0.15,0	90.8%