NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Utah Jazz	97		Excitement	9.2 [109]		MVP	Gordon Hayward (UTA): +17.0%
Orlando Magic	93		Comeback	4.9 [245]		LVP	Arron Afflalo (ORL): -31.9%

Utah Jazz
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Gordon Hayward	0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.18,0.18,0.15,0.16,0.11,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.09	0.06	-0.02	10	74%	0.17	1	-0.00	3	100%	0.02
Derrick Favors	0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.15,0.15,0.2,0.17,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.07	0.07	0.01	8	63%	0.13	0	0.00	3	67%	0.00
Randy Foye	0.12	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,0.06,0.06,0.12	0.02	0.10	0.00	8	56%	0.13	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.03
Jamaal Tinsley	0.04	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.14,0.03,0.03,0.04	0.00	0.06	0.03	9	55%	0.11	2	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Alec Burks	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.00	0.01	0.00	7	47%	0.03	1	-0.02	3	67%	-0.02
Paul Millsap	0.01	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.01	0.06	-0.04	0.02	12	56%	0.01	0	0.00	8	62%	-0.10
DeMarre Carroll	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marvin Williams	-0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	-0.00	-0.01	6	25%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Earl Watson	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	0.00	2	25%	-0.02	1	-0.04	4	50%	-0.04
Enes Kanter	-0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.10	-0.05	0.01	7	29%	-0.08	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Al Jefferson	-0.22	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.13,-0.13,-0.22,-0.22	-0.05	-0.18	-0.01	14	43%	-0.10	2	-0.13	0	0%	0.00

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Nikola Vucevic	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.07	0.08	-0.00	10	73%	0.22	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.02
Jameer Nelson	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	-0.03	0.10	-0.01	13	54%	0.16	4	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Kyle O'Quinn	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andrew Nicholson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	-0.00	-0.01	7	57%	0.02	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
DeQuan Jones	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Maurice Harkless	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.02	-0.02	0.01	4	70%	0.03	1	-0.04	2	0%	-0.05
E'Twaun Moore	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	5	30%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
JJ Redick	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.13,-0.17,-0.17,-0.21,-0.19,-0.19,-0.32,-0.2	-0.20	-0.08	-0.12	0.00	10	61%	0.11	7	-0.31	3	67%	-0.01
Gustavo Ayon	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.11,-0.26	-0.26	-0.02	-0.24	-0.00	7	45%	-0.24	1	-0.02	6	50%	-0.27
Arron Afflalo	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.07,0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.12,-0.21,-0.32	-0.32	-0.02	-0.28	0.02	19	50%	-0.15	3	-0.17	2	50%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	20.2	1.7	25.6	16.3	25.5	1.8	38.3	129.5
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.5	14.0	26.8	2.3	33.1	134.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL -6.0%

UTA +26.2%

ORL -8.1%

UTA +36.3%

UTA +1.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	UTA	ORL	NBA	UTA	ORL	NBA
this game	15.9	15.9	15.4	109.0	101.1	104.1
season	16.0	15.5		104.6	100.3
opponent	15.3	15.1		107.7	105.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
UTA	20.6	14.7	15.5	13.6	15.9
ORL	16.4	16.6	15.8	15.1	15.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Utah Jazz
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Randy Foye	51	53	0.59	-0.09	0.68	0.42	6	-2	8	16.2	15.4	0.84	16.1	15.8	0.31
Paul Millsap	55	57	0.57	-0.07	0.65	0.34	8	-4	12	16.4	15.1	1.28	16.1	15.6	0.51
Gordon Hayward	49	52	0.49	0.01	0.47	0.43	2	2	0	14.9	17.1	-2.18	15.4	16.6	-1.20
Jamaal Tinsley	49	52	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.29	4	0	4	16.4	15.2	1.27	15.4	16.6	-1.25
Alec Burks	39	40	0.40	0.10	0.29	-0.10	17	-13	30	14.0	17.4	-3.39	16.6	15.4	1.16
Al Jefferson	60	62	0.27	0.23	0.05	0.27	0	4	-4	16.8	14.0	2.73	15.7	16.5	-0.82
Enes Kanter	29	30	0.23	0.27	-0.05	0.11	4	0	4	14.0	16.8	-2.73	16.5	15.7	0.82
Earl Watson	40	40	0.09	0.41	-0.32	0.09	0	4	-4	15.2	16.4	-1.27	16.6	15.4	1.25
Derrick Favors	35	35	-0.06	0.56	-0.61	0.00	-2	6	-8	14.7	16.7	-2.01	15.6	16.1	-0.51
DeMarre Carroll	8	9	-0.21	0.71	-0.91	0.06	-9	13	-22	20.2	15.4	4.81	14.8	16.1	-1.29
Marvin Williams	30	30	-0.29	0.79	-1.07	0.01	-10	14	-24	18.7	14.4	4.26	16.1	15.9	0.23

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Maurice Harkless	32	32	0.15	-0.65	0.79	0.06	3	-7	10	17.5	15.1	2.34	17.0	15.2	1.75
E'Twaun Moore	26	27	-0.00	-0.50	0.49	-0.00	0	-4	4	16.6	15.7	0.93	15.4	16.1	-0.67
Kyle O'Quinn	15	17	-0.06	-0.44	0.37	0.02	-3	-1	-2	12.9	16.5	-3.60	13.2	16.5	-3.26
Gustavo Ayon	69	67	-0.17	-0.33	0.17	-0.28	4	-8	12	16.2	15.2	1.03	16.7	13.5	3.16
Andrew Nicholson	23	22	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.10	-6	2	-8	15.2	16.2	-1.03	13.5	16.7	-3.16
Nikola Vucevic	77	73	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.37	-1	-3	2	16.5	12.9	3.60	16.3	14.1	2.21
Arron Afflalo	73	70	-0.49	-0.01	-0.47	-0.40	-3	-1	-2	15.9	15.9	-0.00	16.1	15.1	0.98
Jameer Nelson	85	80	-0.49	-0.01	-0.49	-0.41	-3	-1	-2	15.7	18.4	-2.69	16.0	14.3	1.72
JJ Redick	60	57	-0.70	0.20	-0.90	-0.44	-9	5	-14	15.1	17.5	-2.34	15.2	17.0	-1.75

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.55,0.52,0.55,0.54,0.58,0.62,0.64,0.57,0.6,0.65,0.7,0.74,0.81,0.8,0.79,0.81,0.78,0.76,0.77,0.66,0.69,0.58,0.59,0.5,0.55,0.49,0.55,0.61,0.67,0.77,0.78,0.69,0.66,0.77,0.64,0.58,0.57,0.29,0.33,0.27,0.36,0.47,0.67,0.45,0.63,0.31,0.15,0
Game		Similarity Score
WAS 81, NJN 79	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.5,0.54,0.6,0.64,0.64,0.65,0.69,0.67,0.66,0.66,0.68,0.75,0.71,0.65,0.69,0.61,0.56,0.52,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.5,0.54,0.6,0.64,0.67,0.64,0.71,0.74,0.73,0.66,0.74,0.6,0.62,0.48,0.48,0.42,0.37,0.31,0.47,0.67,0.69,0.55,0.25,0.17,0	91.2%
DEN 106, LAL 103	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.55,0.55,0.6,0.65,0.64,0.66,0.66,0.7,0.72,0.7,0.73,0.78,0.74,0.77,0.75,0.79,0.77,0.64,0.5,0.48,0.55,0.58,0.61,0.52,0.58,0.71,0.69,0.63,0.63,0.64,0.54,0.48,0.34,0.2,0.28,0.53,0.59,0.54,0.31,0.36,0.25,0.26,0	90.8%
DAL 103, CLE 99	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.58,0.6,0.62,0.7,0.69,0.73,0.73,0.7,0.66,0.68,0.68,0.64,0.67,0.63,0.65,0.61,0.59,0.64,0.67,0.64,0.58,0.63,0.72,0.64,0.7,0.73,0.77,0.74,0.81,0.9,0.81,0.68,0.54,0.57,0.38,0.43,0.33,0.41,0.46,0.46,0.39,0.45,0.41,0.27,0	90.0%