NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Boston Celtics	127		Excitement	14.8 [4]		MVP	Brad Miller (CHI): +61.7%
Chicago Bulls	128		Comeback	50.5 [23]		LVP	Derrick Rose (CHI): -69.8%

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ray Allen	0.51	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.08,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.17,0.17,0.22,0.22,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.23,0.23,0.25,0.22,0.22,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.01,0.41,0.41,0.41,0.41,0.51,0.51	0.29	0.25	0.04	32	72%	0.69	3	-0.19	7	86%	0.03
Glen Davis	0.18	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.11,0.18,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.19,0.33,0.33,0.18,0.18	0.01	0.16	-0.01	18	56%	0.45	4	-0.28	5	60%	-0.00
Eddie House	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.05	-0.03	0.07	-0.00	4	25%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kendrick Perkins	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.16,0.1,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.05	-0.03	0.00	8	67%	0.04	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Mikki Moore	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tony Allen	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	4	25%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Stephon Marbury	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.01	3	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brian Scalabrine	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	0.02	-0.06	0.02	6	50%	-0.06	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Paul Pierce	-0.30	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.2,0.09,0.09,0.09,0,0,0,0,0,-0.11,-0.11,-0.3	0.04	-0.32	0.02	13	58%	0.04	3	-0.34	12	92%	0.10
Rajon Rondo	-0.45	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.28,-0.28,-0.45	-0.14	-0.33	-0.02	17	22%	-0.45	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.02

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Brad Miller	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.23,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.42,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.62	0.62	0.16	0.44	-0.02	9	100%	0.69	4	-0.07	5	100%	0.11
John Salmons	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.3,0.36,0.51,0.62,0.59,0.57,0.57,0.57,0.57,0.57,0.57	0.57	0.24	0.37	0.03	22	73%	0.65	2	-0.08	4	100%	0.05
Joakim Noah	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.11,-0.11,0.18	0.18	-0.00	0.17	-0.01	9	47%	0.24	1	-0.07	1	100%	0.02
Lindsey Hunter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	-0.00	0.00	0	50%	0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Linton Johnson	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Aaron Gray	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tyrus Thomas	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.03	-0.00	9	45%	-0.03	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Kirk Hinrich	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.02,0.03,0.03,-0.1	-0.10	-0.01	-0.09	-0.00	11	42%	-0.10	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.04
Ben Gordon	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.2,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25	-0.25	-0.07	-0.16	0.02	14	37%	-0.21	2	-0.04	4	75%	-0.00
Derrick Rose	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.16,-0.32,-0.32,-0.32,-0.32,-0.38,-0.38,-0.38,-0.32,-0.32,-0.37,-0.48,-0.7	-0.70	-0.05	-0.62	0.02	25	50%	-0.29	5	-0.41	6	67%	-0.13

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1		OT2		OT3	Total
this game	37.7	2.7	33.2	19.6	27.5	3.5	39.3	1.6	18.1	2.7	23.6	2.8	22.2	234.6
league avg	26.4	2.4	30.1	16.5	27.1	2.4	33.3	2.0	41.4	2.0	41.4	2.0	41.4	140.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHI +33.9%

BOS -3.2%

CHI +5.8%

CHI +16.5%

BOS -3.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	BOS	CHI	NBA	BOS	CHI	NBA
this game	18.4	14.9	15.5	111.4	113.3	106.4
season	15.8	14.8		108.3	106.3
opponent	15.7	15.6		107.2	101.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
BOS	16.8	17.8	18.5	21.5	17.7	18.4
CHI	14.5	14.9	14.9	14.5	15.6	14.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Glen Davis	92	92	0.51	-1.01	1.51	0.21	10	-11	21	18.8	16.5	2.38	15.7	11.5	4.16
Eddie House	22	23	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	-0.34	9	-10	19	14.5	19.3	-4.80	9.3	16.3	-6.99
Kendrick Perkins	77	77	-0.13	-0.37	0.25	-0.21	3	-4	7	19.3	16.5	2.84	15.6	13.4	2.19
Stephon Marbury	18	19	-0.21	-0.29	0.09	-0.12	-3	2	-5	14.3	19.1	-4.87	11.9	15.5	-3.63
Tony Allen	20	17	-0.21	-0.29	0.07	0.05	-9	8	-17	20.1	18.0	2.09	16.7	14.6	2.11
Mikki Moore	6	5	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.19	-3	2	-5	13.3	18.7	-5.32	13.8	15.0	-1.16
Rajon Rondo	103	102	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.46	3	-4	7	18.5	16.9	1.62	15.2	12.5	2.72
Paul Pierce	89	90	-0.40	-0.10	-0.29	-0.28	-4	3	-7	18.7	17.2	1.51	15.2	13.8	1.36
Ray Allen	105	102	-0.41	-0.09	-0.31	-0.44	1	-2	3	18.8	13.3	5.48	15.2	12.0	3.23
Brian Scalabrine	38	38	-0.94	0.44	-1.37	-0.58	-12	11	-23	17.1	19.0	-1.95	13.6	15.6	-1.93

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Brad Miller	61	65	0.90	-0.40	1.29	0.25	22	-21	43	14.1	15.8	-1.66	19.1	17.4	1.74
Ben Gordon	58	59	0.72	-0.22	0.93	0.57	5	-4	9	14.6	15.3	-0.74	18.3	18.5	-0.22
Joakim Noah	80	78	0.63	-0.13	0.75	0.92	-10	11	-21	15.7	12.9	2.83	18.1	19.1	-0.99
Kirk Hinrich	68	70	0.52	-0.01	0.53	0.54	-1	2	-3	14.0	16.2	-2.18	18.4	18.3	0.13
Derrick Rose	105	105	0.38	0.12	0.27	0.44	-2	3	-5	15.2	11.7	3.40	18.5	16.8	1.74
John Salmons	96	97	0.05	0.45	-0.39	-0.03	3	-2	5	15.4	12.4	2.94	18.8	15.9	2.86
Aaron Gray	2	1	0.05	0.45	-0.40	-0.07	4	-3	7	14.0	14.9	-0.93	15.0	18.4	-3.41
Linton Johnson	1	0	-0.09	0.59	-0.68	-0.03	-2	3	-5	0.0	15.0	-15.04	0.0	18.4	-18.38
Lindsey Hunter	11	11	-0.29	0.79	-1.07	-0.20	-3	4	-7	8.9	15.6	-6.65	12.3	19.0	-6.76
Tyrus Thomas	66	66	-0.95	1.45	-2.41	-0.54	-14	15	-29	15.8	13.7	2.07	18.5	18.3	0.18

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.53,0.52,0.49,0.6,0.66,0.66,0.73,0.74,0.7,0.72,0.68,0.71,0.73,0.65,0.67,0.68,0.58,0.56,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.62,0.55,0.51,0.45,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.63,0.67,0.79,0.78,0.81,0.92,0.86,0.77,0.64,0.41,0.33,0.14,0.04,0.15,0.15,0.54,0.46,0.62,0.84,0.42,0.46,0.45,0.64,0.78,0.84,0.54,0.69,0.54,0.67,0.58,1
Game		Similarity Score
NYK 112, POR 110	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.54,0.56,0.64,0.67,0.68,0.72,0.67,0.7,0.66,0.64,0.6,0.6,0.67,0.73,0.68,0.54,0.59,0.49,0.54,0.58,0.5,0.55,0.54,0.42,0.39,0.42,0.48,0.55,0.65,0.63,0.63,0.84,0.87,0.85,0.7,0.62,0.47,0.47,0.35,0.34,0.19,0.07,0.06,0.28,0	87.2%
MIN 103, MIA 91	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.53,0.54,0.53,0.55,0.63,0.69,0.65,0.65,0.71,0.63,0.62,0.64,0.58,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.48,0.59,0.58,0.56,0.56,0.63,0.6,0.55,0.55,0.42,0.44,0.42,0.41,0.55,0.63,0.67,0.79,0.78,0.81,0.86,0.67,0.63,0.53,0.34,0.4,0.38,0.11,0.03,0,0	86.8%
HOU 103, WAS 91	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.55,0.57,0.6,0.62,0.67,0.65,0.69,0.63,0.71,0.74,0.7,0.68,0.62,0.62,0.65,0.61,0.53,0.46,0.44,0.44,0.51,0.5,0.41,0.45,0.55,0.55,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.62,0.77,0.77,0.75,0.78,0.78,0.79,0.8,0.81,0.53,0.46,0.39,0.53,0.36,0.16,0,0	86.6%