NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	91		Excitement	5.0 [808]		MVP	Michael Finley (SAS): +7.0%
New Orleans Hornets	82		Comeback	1.3 [437]		LVP	Tim Duncan (SAS): -12.6%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Michael Finley	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.06	0.01	0.00	2	150%	0.09	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Robert Horry	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.00	-0.00	4	75%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tony Parker	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0.05	-0.02	0.07	-0.00	17	45%	0.09	2	-0.04	4	75%	0.01
Manu Ginobili	0.05	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05	0.02	0.04	0.01	19	53%	0.11	3	-0.07	11	91%	0.01
Bruce Bowen	0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.00	-0.01	6	50%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Fabricio Oberto	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.01	-0.00	2	100%	0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Kurt Thomas	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ime Udoka	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	7	57%	0.04	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Tim Duncan	-0.13	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13	-0.11	-0.01	-0.00	17	40%	-0.03	4	-0.10	6	100%	0.03

New Orleans Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tyson Chandler	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.09	-0.00	0.03	8	72%	0.05	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Jannero Pargo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,0.06,0.03,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	-0.01	-0.00	16	50%	0.03	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.02
Melvin Ely	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.03	0.00	-0.02	2	17%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Bonzi Wells	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Morris Peterson	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.04	0.00	-0.01	7	36%	-0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
David West	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	0.00	-0.01	0.05	19	48%	-0.03	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.02
Chris Paul	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08	-0.08	-0.08	0.01	0.01	18	44%	0.02	4	-0.10	5	40%	-0.03
Peja Stojakovic	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.07	-0.04	0.01	11	32%	-0.09	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.7	3.7	32.1	19.8	28.1	3.4	35.7	151.5
league avg	27.9	2.4	30.0	16.2	26.6	2.4	33.3	140.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +43.0%

SAS +5.6%

SAS +7.7%

NOH -9.3%

SAS +3.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	NOH	NBA	SAS	NOH	NBA
this game	18.5	13.9	15.4	103.4	91.1	105.7
season	16.5	15.9		104.7	109.6
opponent	15.7	15.3		104.0	100.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	19.8	17.0	18.9	18.4	18.5
NOH	13.9	14.3	14.7	12.9	13.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Fabricio Oberto	64	62	0.55	-0.05	0.59	0.17	13	-4	17	17.2	21.9	-4.64	13.8	14.1	-0.28
Tony Parker	80	80	0.46	0.04	0.42	0.17	10	-1	11	18.6	17.4	1.24	13.9	13.9	0.01
Manu Ginobili	77	77	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.26	4	5	-1	18.4	19.1	-0.68	13.9	14.0	-0.10
Michael Finley	22	24	0.34	0.16	0.17	-0.07	14	-5	19	15.8	19.4	-3.64	14.1	13.8	0.23
Bruce Bowen	51	54	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.14	6	3	3	18.7	18.2	0.54	14.1	13.6	0.59
Tim Duncan	72	75	0.30	0.20	0.10	0.18	4	5	-1	18.4	18.9	-0.46	14.0	13.3	0.69
Robert Horry	25	26	0.06	0.44	-0.38	0.09	-1	10	-11	20.1	17.9	2.21	13.7	14.0	-0.36
Kurt Thomas	12	12	0.05	0.45	-0.39	0.08	-1	10	-11	23.0	17.8	5.21	15.1	13.7	1.35
Ime Udoka	37	40	0.05	0.45	-0.40	0.17	-4	13	-17	19.6	17.7	1.84	13.2	14.4	-1.19

New Orleans Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Melvin Ely	8	8	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	0.02	-4	-5	1	15.0	13.8	1.20	15.7	18.8	-3.03
Bonzi Wells	10	10	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	0.07	-8	-1	-7	14.0	13.9	0.10	17.7	18.6	-0.90
Morris Peterson	45	45	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	-0.11	-2	-7	5	14.9	13.0	1.91	18.3	18.7	-0.39
Tyson Chandler	78	77	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.28	-2	-7	5	13.8	14.9	-1.16	18.9	15.9	2.96
Jannero Pargo	50	47	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.10	-10	1	-11	13.0	15.1	-2.14	18.6	18.4	0.11
Peja Stojakovic	82	81	-0.40	-0.10	-0.31	-0.26	-5	-4	-1	13.8	15.0	-1.20	18.8	14.6	4.27
David West	88	85	-0.43	-0.07	-0.35	-0.28	-5	-4	-1	14.0	10.0	4.00	18.3	25.0	-6.73
Chris Paul	89	87	-0.50	-0.00	-0.50	-0.24	-9	0	-9	14.0	6.0	8.00	18.5	19.0	-0.51

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.46,0.51,0.53,0.55,0.49,0.45,0.39,0.42,0.43,0.39,0.38,0.38,0.33,0.31,0.3,0.34,0.46,0.46,0.36,0.22,0.25,0.23,0.25,0.22,0.24,0.21,0.18,0.2,0.21,0.12,0.1,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.07,0.03,0.08,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.16,0.06,0.08,0
Game		Similarity Score
SEA 90, CHI 80	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.49,0.38,0.4,0.36,0.38,0.38,0.31,0.33,0.3,0.27,0.31,0.36,0.33,0.3,0.25,0.21,0.23,0.17,0.15,0.16,0.13,0.2,0.11,0.15,0.14,0.12,0.08,0.1,0.14,0.05,0.04,0.06,0.06,0,0,0.01,0,0,0	94.6%
TOR 108, PHI 98	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.51,0.48,0.5,0.51,0.53,0.54,0.55,0.53,0.42,0.4,0.48,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.4,0.36,0.39,0.41,0.39,0.36,0.23,0.25,0.3,0.29,0.23,0.2,0.15,0.24,0.21,0.23,0.16,0.18,0.2,0.09,0.03,0.05,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0	94.4%
DEN 100, CHI 84	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.47,0.48,0.48,0.45,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.4,0.42,0.4,0.35,0.36,0.34,0.38,0.33,0.4,0.44,0.48,0.48,0.42,0.39,0.3,0.22,0.26,0.2,0.15,0.22,0.27,0.18,0.2,0.27,0.14,0.06,0.08,0.04,0.02,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0	94.4%