NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	96		Excitement	7.7 [316]		MVP	Robert Horry (SAS): +19.2%
Denver Nuggets	89		Comeback	5.5 [270]		LVP	Steve Blake (DEN): -28.2%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Robert Horry	0.19	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.19	0.05	0.15	-0.00	3	75%	0.19	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Bruce Bowen	0.12	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.06	0.07	0.00	8	62%	0.12	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tony Parker	0.08	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.01	0.08	0.01	11	65%	0.20	4	-0.11	1	100%	0.01
Jacque Vaughn	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.04	0.03	-0.00	4	75%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tim Duncan	0.05	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,0,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05	0.02	0.03	-0.00	19	50%	0.08	1	-0.03	6	67%	-0.06
Francisco Elson	0.01	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.03	-0.01	0.01	5	57%	0.01	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.02
Michael Finley	-0.00	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.02,0.09,0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.05	0.02	-0.03	11	37%	0.01	1	-0.01	2	50%	-0.00
Fabricio Oberto	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.00	0.00	2	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brent Barry	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.05	-0.03	0.00	3	0%	-0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Manu Ginobili	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09	-0.04	-0.03	0.02	15	51%	0.06	4	-0.15	5	100%	0.02

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Nene	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.19,0.19	0.19	0.11	0.10	0.01	9	78%	0.23	2	-0.04	5	80%	0.01
Marcus Camby	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.03	0.02	-0.02	8	62%	0.08	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Carmelo Anthony	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.15,0.11,0.18,0.12,0.12,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.07	-0.01	0.00	18	69%	0.23	6	-0.16	6	83%	0.01
Eduardo Najera	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.03	0.02	-0.01	5	60%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
J.R. Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02	-0.02	-0.06	0.02	-0.02	5	20%	-0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Linas Kleiza	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	2	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Allen Iverson	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.07	-0.06	0.00	25	40%	-0.07	2	-0.06	5	80%	0.02
Steve Blake	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.21,-0.29,-0.38,-0.28	-0.28	-0.14	-0.15	-0.01	6	17%	-0.10	4	-0.18	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.3	3.7	30.0	19.4	27.5	3.5	42.5	150.9
league avg	28.7	2.4	29.9	15.9	26.5	2.4	34.0	141.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +33.3%

DEN -3.0%

SAS +12.0%

SAS +12.2%

DEN -4.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	DEN	NBA	SAS	DEN	NBA
this game	16.3	15.0	15.4	104.3	96.7	104.5
season	16.2	14.0		107.5	105.8
opponent	15.3	15.4		104.5	98.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	18.2	17.3	15.0	14.7	16.3
DEN	13.9	13.2	16.3	16.6	15.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Robert Horry	32	34	0.56	-0.06	0.61	0.44	4	3	1	15.6	16.7	-1.12	15.4	14.8	0.59
Manu Ginobili	61	61	0.53	-0.03	0.55	0.41	4	3	1	15.5	17.9	-2.38	14.5	15.9	-1.40
Tony Parker	75	73	0.48	0.02	0.46	0.19	10	-3	13	16.1	17.2	-1.12	15.3	13.8	1.43
Tim Duncan	75	76	0.36	0.14	0.21	0.30	2	5	-3	16.2	16.8	-0.54	15.0	14.7	0.28
Bruce Bowen	77	76	0.32	0.18	0.14	0.14	6	1	5	15.9	18.4	-2.48	15.2	14.1	1.11
Fabricio Oberto	27	25	0.17	0.33	-0.15	-0.00	6	1	5	17.4	15.9	1.58	14.7	15.1	-0.35
Jacque Vaughn	16	16	0.13	0.37	-0.24	0.13	0	7	-7	16.2	16.3	-0.09	14.8	15.0	-0.20
Michael Finley	41	42	0.08	0.42	-0.34	0.02	2	5	-3	17.2	15.6	1.66	15.1	14.8	0.30
Brent Barry	21	22	0.03	0.47	-0.45	-0.09	4	3	1	18.5	15.7	2.79	15.0	15.0	-0.03
Francisco Elson	35	35	-0.15	0.65	-0.80	-0.06	-3	10	-13	16.7	16.1	0.67	14.4	15.4	-0.98

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Linas Kleiza	32	31	0.11	-0.61	0.72	0.11	0	-7	7	13.9	15.5	-1.64	18.0	15.5	2.48
Steve Blake	66	66	-0.23	-0.27	0.05	-0.29	2	-9	11	15.1	14.8	0.29	16.4	16.2	0.13
J.R. Smith	28	30	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	0.02	-9	2	-11	14.3	15.3	-1.00	15.1	16.9	-1.87
Eduardo Najera	30	30	-0.29	-0.21	-0.09	-0.03	-9	2	-11	14.2	15.4	-1.15	17.2	15.9	1.30
Carmelo Anthony	73	74	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.32	-3	-4	1	15.1	14.4	0.70	16.2	16.7	-0.49
Marcus Camby	68	65	-0.42	-0.08	-0.35	-0.42	0	-7	7	15.0	14.8	0.25	16.3	16.3	-0.01
Nene	77	77	-0.49	-0.01	-0.47	-0.25	-8	1	-9	15.3	13.3	2.05	16.1	17.5	-1.44
Allen Iverson	86	87	-0.53	0.03	-0.56	-0.30	-8	1	-9	15.3	9.8	5.50	16.1	19.6	-3.46

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.47,0.49,0.57,0.6,0.6,0.64,0.65,0.62,0.58,0.61,0.65,0.58,0.56,0.49,0.59,0.58,0.67,0.67,0.73,0.74,0.77,0.72,0.73,0.79,0.71,0.68,0.75,0.73,0.78,0.82,0.74,0.66,0.48,0.58,0.63,0.53,0.65,0.73,0.61,0.45,0.24,0.1,0
Game		Similarity Score
NYK 88, MIA 84	0.5,0.49,0.5,0.52,0.52,0.61,0.64,0.63,0.66,0.61,0.62,0.63,0.68,0.68,0.64,0.66,0.64,0.6,0.56,0.58,0.66,0.66,0.74,0.67,0.7,0.63,0.66,0.69,0.69,0.7,0.67,0.65,0.71,0.75,0.8,0.7,0.6,0.66,0.62,0.57,0.48,0.63,0.64,0.59,0.67,0.61,0.55,0.34,0.08,0	91.5%
PHI 102, IND 90	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.48,0.49,0.55,0.59,0.59,0.61,0.63,0.62,0.63,0.57,0.64,0.71,0.71,0.69,0.7,0.75,0.74,0.72,0.77,0.78,0.73,0.69,0.79,0.78,0.73,0.76,0.79,0.75,0.82,0.83,0.71,0.72,0.7,0.62,0.52,0.48,0.63,0.53,0.71,0.61,0.45,0.37,0.01,0,0	91.2%
MIN 94, SAC 86	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.58,0.57,0.6,0.62,0.58,0.53,0.58,0.56,0.58,0.61,0.61,0.64,0.7,0.73,0.74,0.66,0.7,0.75,0.76,0.8,0.71,0.69,0.77,0.74,0.75,0.81,0.7,0.57,0.62,0.53,0.47,0.46,0.4,0.32,0.29,0.24,0.02,0	91.2%