NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	78		Excitement	6.6 [511]		MVP	Tayshaun Prince (DET): +32.1%
Detroit Pistons	91		Comeback	1.2 [1102]		LVP	Richard Hamilton (DET): -22.2%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
James Posey	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.03	0.01	-0.00	4	62%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shandon Anderson	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Alonzo Mourning	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.00	-0.00	2	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	6	50%	-0.05
Jason Williams	-0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	7	40%	-0.02	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Shaquille O'Neal	-0.07	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.08,-0.1,-0.12,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.12,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.04	-0.02	0.01	15	54%	0.05	5	-0.12	5	20%	-0.11
Antoine Walker	-0.08	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.07	-0.04	-0.03	12	42%	0.03	3	-0.11	0	0%	0.00
Udonis Haslem	-0.09	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09	-0.06	-0.05	-0.02	14	32%	-0.09	0	0.00	3	0%	-0.05
Gary Payton	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.02	-0.02	3	0%	-0.07	1	-0.02	2	0%	0.00
Dwyane Wade	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,0,0.04,0,0,-0.05,-0.1,-0.05,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.04	-0.06	0.01	20	53%	0.07	5	-0.18	3	33%	-0.07

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tayshaun Prince	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.17,0.21,0.21,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.25,0.25,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.32	0.32	0.22	0.11	0.02	17	74%	0.32	0	0.00	5	100%	0.01
Antonio McDyess	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.19	0.10	0.11	0.01	5	100%	0.22	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Ben Wallace	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.07	0.01	0.01	4	67%	0.07	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.01
Chauncey Billups	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,0,-0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.03	0.02	12	49%	0.05	1	-0.03	11	100%	0.06
Maurice Evans	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Lindsey Hunter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.06	-0.02	-0.02	6	17%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rasheed Wallace	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.13	0.00	-0.02	11	29%	-0.02	3	-0.08	2	50%	-0.03
Richard Hamilton	0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.19,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22	-0.22	-0.15	-0.08	-0.00	21	36%	-0.12	4	-0.10	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	29.0	3.6	31.2	17.8	30.0	3.0	40.0	154.6
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DET +9.0%

DET +32.4%

MIA -0.9%

DET +11.8%

MIA -2.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	DET	NBA	MIA	DET	NBA
this game	16.2	16.9	15.6	88.6	105.8	104.4
season	15.5	16.9		106.1	108.3
opponent	15.8	15.5		101.4	102.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	14.8	17.3	16.8	16.2	16.2
DET	15.9	17.0	14.5	20.8	16.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Alonzo Mourning	27	24	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.00	0	-13	13	15.5	16.6	-1.09	17.0	16.8	0.12
Shandon Anderson	5	3	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	0.08	-4	-9	5	9.0	16.7	-7.67	21.7	16.7	4.97
James Posey	55	52	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	0.02	-8	-5	-3	16.2	16.3	-0.10	17.8	15.4	2.37
Jason Williams	53	53	-0.25	-0.25	-0.00	-0.08	-6	-7	1	16.4	16.1	0.30	15.9	18.4	-2.52
Antoine Walker	67	67	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.11	-5	-8	3	16.3	15.9	0.44	17.1	16.1	0.98
Gary Payton	38	35	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	0.01	-13	0	-13	16.5	16.1	0.41	17.9	16.2	1.71
Dwyane Wade	81	81	-0.38	-0.12	-0.25	-0.23	-5	-8	3	16.3	15.6	0.72	16.9	16.6	0.29
Shaquille O'Neal	54	57	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.26	-5	-8	3	17.1	14.8	2.35	17.1	16.5	0.59
Udonis Haslem	60	58	-0.57	0.07	-0.65	-0.02	-19	6	-25	15.9	16.9	-0.91	15.6	19.6	-4.06

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tayshaun Prince	77	79	0.55	-0.05	0.59	0.05	17	-4	21	16.7	18.3	-1.63	16.5	13.6	2.99
Antonio McDyess	31	34	0.49	0.01	0.48	0.08	14	-1	15	17.5	16.5	0.91	17.2	15.6	1.58
Chauncey Billups	76	77	0.46	0.04	0.43	0.17	10	3	7	16.9	16.3	0.65	15.8	19.1	-3.26
Richard Hamilton	70	70	0.43	0.07	0.36	0.02	14	-1	15	16.3	19.2	-2.84	16.4	15.5	0.93
Rasheed Wallace	75	77	0.25	0.25	0.00	-0.07	11	2	9	16.4	20.1	-3.69	16.1	17.0	-0.87
Ben Wallace	63	61	0.22	0.28	-0.06	0.31	-3	16	-19	16.9	16.7	0.18	16.4	15.8	0.66
Lindsey Hunter	33	36	0.17	0.33	-0.15	-0.00	6	7	-1	17.9	16.2	1.73	16.0	16.4	-0.40
Maurice Evans	5	6	-0.08	0.58	-0.66	0.04	-4	17	-21	21.6	16.6	5.02	10.5	16.7	-6.16

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.53,0.56,0.57,0.55,0.53,0.55,0.62,0.62,0.63,0.62,0.6,0.66,0.73,0.71,0.68,0.64,0.59,0.56,0.51,0.56,0.58,0.65,0.66,0.55,0.67,0.7,0.71,0.71,0.69,0.69,0.71,0.79,0.81,0.78,0.7,0.67,0.72,0.74,0.78,0.78,0.85,0.84,0.99,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
DET 91, CLE 97	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.53,0.51,0.58,0.58,0.53,0.59,0.63,0.62,0.63,0.64,0.54,0.58,0.6,0.55,0.67,0.63,0.63,0.58,0.48,0.58,0.51,0.56,0.5,0.51,0.57,0.55,0.58,0.67,0.65,0.62,0.68,0.59,0.67,0.71,0.78,0.78,0.7,0.76,0.77,0.78,0.85,0.83,0.85,0.85,0.91,0.92,1	94.0%
CHI 86, ATL 93	0.5,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.49,0.57,0.63,0.61,0.63,0.69,0.66,0.65,0.56,0.58,0.6,0.65,0.61,0.63,0.61,0.56,0.54,0.58,0.54,0.67,0.63,0.6,0.67,0.67,0.55,0.71,0.65,0.76,0.69,0.77,0.8,0.85,0.85,0.82,0.58,0.73,0.64,0.79,0.78,0.89,0.84,0.91,0.91,1	93.9%
POR 87, CHI 92	0.5,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.45,0.5,0.56,0.55,0.57,0.53,0.57,0.58,0.6,0.66,0.7,0.65,0.67,0.77,0.7,0.65,0.63,0.69,0.69,0.61,0.61,0.5,0.51,0.6,0.61,0.7,0.67,0.68,0.75,0.72,0.79,0.86,0.85,0.87,0.87,0.71,0.8,0.72,0.83,0.88,0.78,0.75,0.79,0.91,0.98,1	93.7%