NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	104		Excitement	3.5 [1116]		MVP	Michael Redd (MIL): +17.3%
Milwaukee Bucks	124		Comeback	1.5 [994]		LVP	Tayshaun Prince (DET): -9.7%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Lindsey Hunter	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.10	0.00	0.03	8	70%	0.07	0	0.00	4	100%	0.01
Antonio McDyess	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.08	-0.00	0.03	5	81%	0.07	1	-0.03	6	83%	-0.00
Rasheed Wallace	0.04	0,0,0.03,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.10	-0.01	0.04	11	64%	0.04	0	0.00	6	17%	-0.04
Maurice Evans	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.08	0.00	0.06	5	83%	0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Carlos Delfino	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kelvin Cato	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tony Delk	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.02	0.00	0.03	3	75%	0.00	1	-0.01	2	50%	0.00
Chauncey Billups	-0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.04	-0.00	0.07	16	60%	0.04	4	-0.06	11	91%	0.01
Richard Hamilton	-0.04	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.08	-0.01	-0.06	14	36%	-0.00	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Ben Wallace	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.06	0.00	-0.02	1	17%	-0.03	1	-0.00	4	25%	-0.04
Tayshaun Prince	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.06	-0.02	0.02	7	37%	-0.05	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Michael Redd	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.17	0.31	0.01	0.16	21	80%	0.17	0	0.00	8	100%	0.02
Mo Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.20	0.03	0.06	10	100%	0.16	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joe Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.13	0.03	0.11	5	87%	0.05	0	0.00	5	100%	0.02
Toni Kukoc	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.06	0.00	0.02	4	100%	0.08	2	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Jamaal Magloire	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.05	-0.00	0.02	8	60%	0.06	1	-0.02	4	50%	-0.01
T.J. Ford	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.01	0.00	0.01	5	54%	0.03	1	-0.03	3	100%	0.01
Ervin Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.04	0.00	-0.04	1	0%	0.00	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jiri Welsch	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.02	0.00	0.02	1	100%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dan Gadzuric	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bobby Simmons	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.03	-0.01	-0.04	11	45%	0.01	2	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Charlie Bell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.05	0.00	-0.05	3	33%	0.00	2	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Andrew Bogut	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.04	0.00	-0.02	9	44%	0.00	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.6	3.8	31.2	18.7	27.2	3.7	36.0	147.1
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL +28.6%

MIL +12.8%

MIL +2.5%

MIL +5.4%

MIL +0.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	MIL	NBA	DET	MIL	NBA
this game	16.3	16.0	15.6	116.9	139.3	104.4
season	16.9	15.5		108.3	104.6
opponent	15.5	15.8		106.0	101.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DET	16.9	18.2	16.2	14.1	16.3
MIL	15.9	15.2	15.1	17.8	16.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Maurice Evans	24	25	0.03	-0.53	0.55	-0.24	9	-29	38	12.7	17.7	-5.04	15.5	16.2	-0.74
Carlos Delfino	7	7	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.18	6	-26	32	10.1	16.9	-6.74	17.4	15.9	1.54
Kelvin Cato	7	7	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.18	6	-26	32	10.1	16.9	-6.74	17.4	15.9	1.54
Lindsey Hunter	25	26	-0.08	-0.42	0.33	0.00	-3	-17	14	15.4	16.7	-1.37	17.4	15.4	1.99
Tony Delk	30	29	-0.12	-0.38	0.25	-0.36	8	-28	36	13.5	17.8	-4.30	15.1	16.4	-1.35
Antonio McDyess	48	48	-0.25	-0.25	0.00	-0.01	-8	-12	4	16.5	16.1	0.42	15.1	17.1	-2.06
Ben Wallace	52	54	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	0.14	-16	-4	-12	15.8	17.1	-1.25	16.1	15.9	0.25
Richard Hamilton	54	54	-0.35	-0.15	-0.19	0.27	-21	1	-22	17.9	13.9	4.01	16.3	15.6	0.72
Rasheed Wallace	64	62	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	0.40	-28	8	-36	18.0	12.2	5.82	16.3	15.3	1.08
Chauncey Billups	69	69	-0.45	-0.05	-0.39	0.26	-24	4	-28	16.7	15.1	1.61	15.6	17.3	-1.66
Tayshaun Prince	65	64	-0.53	0.03	-0.55	0.32	-29	9	-38	17.7	12.7	5.04	16.2	15.5	0.74

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Bobby Simmons	65	66	0.52	-0.02	0.54	-0.15	23	-3	26	15.4	17.7	-2.27	16.5	15.9	0.59
Michael Redd	62	62	0.51	-0.01	0.53	-0.40	31	-11	42	16.0	16.0	0.07	17.4	13.9	3.48
Jamaal Magloire	51	52	0.46	0.04	0.42	-0.10	19	1	18	16.2	15.7	0.52	17.7	14.4	3.28
T.J. Ford	50	53	0.31	0.19	0.12	-0.37	23	-3	26	17.1	14.6	2.44	18.3	13.5	4.83
Andrew Bogut	47	47	0.30	0.20	0.10	0.01	10	10	0	15.5	16.5	-1.02	17.1	15.5	1.70
Mo Williams	39	36	0.19	0.31	-0.12	0.28	-3	23	-26	14.6	17.1	-2.44	13.5	18.3	-4.83
Toni Kukoc	37	38	0.16	0.34	-0.17	-0.19	12	8	4	16.4	15.7	0.67	17.4	15.6	1.78
Joe Smith	39	40	0.02	0.48	-0.45	-0.09	4	16	-12	16.1	16.0	0.07	15.9	16.7	-0.86
Charlie Bell	34	33	0.02	0.48	-0.46	0.22	-7	27	-34	16.1	15.9	0.17	14.5	17.5	-3.01
Ervin Johnson	7	6	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.12	-4	24	-28	17.4	15.9	1.54	8.5	16.9	-8.42
Jiri Welsch	7	6	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.12	-4	24	-28	17.4	15.9	1.54	8.5	16.9	-8.42
Dan Gadzuric	7	6	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.12	-4	24	-28	17.4	15.9	1.54	8.5	16.9	-8.42

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.47,0.52,0.5,0.4,0.49,0.53,0.53,0.47,0.44,0.57,0.53,0.51,0.47,0.53,0.6,0.52,0.53,0.61,0.58,0.58,0.73,0.7,0.74,0.75,0.78,0.81,0.88,0.94,0.96,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.99,1,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
TOR 101, DAL 129	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.45,0.46,0.5,0.45,0.45,0.49,0.47,0.42,0.46,0.52,0.58,0.51,0.51,0.6,0.58,0.61,0.65,0.59,0.61,0.61,0.64,0.7,0.75,0.77,0.75,0.85,0.93,0.92,0.95,0.97,0.96,0.94,0.97,0.96,0.98,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.3%
ORL 92, POR 111	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.48,0.53,0.51,0.47,0.46,0.48,0.51,0.49,0.58,0.56,0.63,0.63,0.63,0.64,0.64,0.67,0.7,0.78,0.81,0.77,0.72,0.85,0.86,0.92,0.95,0.96,0.97,0.94,0.95,0.95,0.98,0.98,0.95,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.7%
DEN 102, UTA 121	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.48,0.49,0.52,0.53,0.51,0.55,0.57,0.53,0.49,0.47,0.46,0.53,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.39,0.49,0.56,0.58,0.59,0.72,0.73,0.74,0.77,0.83,0.87,0.94,0.96,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.98,0.98,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.7%