NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	86		Excitement	7.2 [410]		MVP	Dwyane Wade (MIA): +25.0%
Miami Heat	92		Comeback	1.8 [805]		LVP	Ben Wallace (DET): -20.0%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Lindsey Hunter	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.07,0.07,0.16,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.03	0.07	-0.01	4	75%	0.16	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Tayshaun Prince	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05	0.06	0.00	0.01	13	61%	0.11	1	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Carlos Arroyo	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.01	-0.00	2	67%	0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Darvin Ham	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Elden Campbell	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.00	-0.01	0.00	2	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Chauncey Billups	-0.06	0,0,0,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.14,-0.14,-0.19,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,0,0,-0.05,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.12	0.04	-0.01	11	58%	0.12	8	-0.18	2	0%	-0.02
Antonio McDyess	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.07	-0.02	-0.00	4	25%	-0.05	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Rasheed Wallace	-0.10	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.1	-0.05	-0.05	0.01	12	47%	-0.06	1	-0.04	8	75%	0.01
Richard Hamilton	-0.14	0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.18,-0.18,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.16,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.16,-0.14	-0.10	-0.05	-0.00	23	40%	-0.12	1	-0.02	7	57%	-0.06
Ben Wallace	-0.20	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.16,-0.21,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2	-0.11	-0.09	0.00	10	20%	-0.18	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dwyane Wade	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.11,0.16,0.28,0.2,0.26,0.24,0.23,0.25	0.25	0.06	0.21	0.01	28	61%	0.39	4	-0.14	10	100%	0.07
Damon Jones	0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.10	0.02	-0.01	7	87%	0.15	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.01
Alonzo Mourning	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	2	100%	0.06	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.02
Michael Doleac	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Christian Laettner	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.00	4	50%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Rasual Butler	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	3	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shaquille O'Neal	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.03,0.03,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	0.02	0.02	15	49%	0.01	2	-0.05	5	20%	-0.06
Keyon Dooling	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.08	-0.03	-0.01	7	19%	-0.10	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Udonis Haslem	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.10	-0.01	-0.01	4	0%	-0.07	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Eddie Jones	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13	-0.13	-0.13	-0.01	-0.01	8	33%	-0.04	4	-0.09	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.0	3.8	36.2	19.6	29.3	3.5	40.5	160.9
league avg	51.6	2.4	28.6	12.7	25.1	2.1	30.4	153.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +32.2%

MIA +10.4%

MIA +7.2%

DET -1.0%

MIA +1.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	MIA	NBA	DET	MIA	NBA
this game	15.2	14.9	15.5	89.6	96.8	104.0
season	16.7	15.7		103.5	107.9
opponent	15.5	15.9		101.1	98.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DET	13.7	14.3	16.4	16.8	15.2
MIA	16.3	12.4	17.1	14.5	14.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Lindsey Hunter	22	24	0.10	-0.60	0.71	0.08	1	-7	8	15.3	15.2	0.13	15.4	14.8	0.59
Darvin Ham	0	1	0.01	-0.51	0.51	0.01	0	-6	6	0.0	15.2	-15.22	3.0	15.1	-12.06
Antonio McDyess	36	33	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	0.05	-3	-3	0	16.7	14.3	2.32	14.2	15.4	-1.20
Elden Campbell	13	13	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	0.02	-4	-2	-2	13.6	15.5	-1.85	15.4	14.9	0.52
Tayshaun Prince	68	67	-0.21	-0.29	0.09	-0.35	5	-11	16	15.8	13.8	1.97	16.0	12.5	3.51
Carlos Arroyo	18	17	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	0.03	-8	2	-10	14.6	15.4	-0.75	11.8	15.6	-3.86
Ben Wallace	85	84	-0.25	-0.25	-0.00	-0.31	2	-8	10	14.4	21.4	-6.94	15.3	12.2	3.12
Chauncey Billups	91	89	-0.48	-0.02	-0.47	-0.37	-4	-2	-2	15.2	15.0	0.23	14.9	15.0	-0.07
Rasheed Wallace	58	59	-0.62	0.12	-0.73	-0.41	-7	1	-8	15.8	14.3	1.58	15.0	14.9	0.08
Richard Hamilton	89	88	-0.71	0.21	-0.91	-0.35	-12	6	-18	14.9	19.7	-4.85	14.6	18.6	-3.92

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Damon Jones	63	66	0.69	-0.19	0.88	0.31	13	-7	20	13.7	17.4	-3.68	15.2	15.3	-0.07
Dwyane Wade	84	84	0.69	-0.19	0.88	0.43	9	-3	12	15.3	11.9	3.42	15.1	16.1	-0.99
Eddie Jones	85	87	0.46	0.04	0.42	0.34	4	2	2	14.4	19.2	-4.76	14.9	18.4	-3.56
Alonzo Mourning	42	43	0.45	0.05	0.39	0.33	4	2	2	15.0	14.8	0.20	14.4	15.9	-1.53
Shaquille O'Neal	64	66	0.42	0.08	0.35	0.22	7	-1	8	15.1	14.5	0.62	16.5	12.4	4.05
Udonis Haslem	53	55	0.32	0.18	0.13	0.02	10	-4	14	13.6	16.6	-2.97	13.9	17.0	-3.19
Michael Doleac	9	7	0.09	0.41	-0.32	0.06	1	5	-4	14.2	15.0	-0.79	12.3	15.4	-3.16
Keyon Dooling	39	37	-0.06	0.56	-0.63	-0.00	-2	8	-10	16.1	14.1	1.93	15.7	14.9	0.79
Rasual Butler	14	14	-0.28	0.78	-1.05	-0.10	-6	12	-18	18.0	14.4	3.59	16.9	14.9	1.92
Christian Laettner	22	21	-0.28	0.78	-1.06	0.01	-10	16	-26	17.6	14.1	3.45	17.5	14.6	2.95

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.54,0.53,0.52,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.55,0.54,0.52,0.51,0.62,0.64,0.6,0.65,0.61,0.61,0.66,0.7,0.79,0.84,0.8,0.81,0.84,0.8,0.83,0.84,0.79,0.75,0.72,0.77,0.8,0.68,0.46,0.62,0.38,0.48,0.42,0.47,0.41,0.6,0.54,0.9,0.94,0.92,1
Game		Similarity Score
SEA 92, SAC 97	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.5,0.49,0.51,0.58,0.6,0.57,0.55,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.6,0.63,0.58,0.64,0.66,0.67,0.72,0.69,0.73,0.74,0.8,0.78,0.85,0.84,0.77,0.74,0.72,0.73,0.67,0.64,0.54,0.48,0.38,0.33,0.32,0.36,0.34,0.46,0.61,0.72,0.87,0.95,1	92.7%
DAL 82, GSW 88	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.44,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.51,0.47,0.52,0.53,0.6,0.64,0.67,0.63,0.65,0.68,0.71,0.69,0.77,0.84,0.81,0.85,0.88,0.85,0.78,0.76,0.71,0.65,0.78,0.7,0.67,0.52,0.66,0.43,0.57,0.42,0.42,0.47,0.4,0.46,0.53,0.78,0.86,0.92,1	92.6%
BKN 103, MIL 112	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.57,0.51,0.47,0.45,0.56,0.57,0.5,0.42,0.51,0.53,0.56,0.65,0.64,0.64,0.67,0.67,0.7,0.78,0.79,0.86,0.82,0.91,0.81,0.85,0.8,0.72,0.73,0.67,0.67,0.62,0.62,0.48,0.57,0.47,0.47,0.59,0.46,0.62,0.79,0.94,0.99,1	92.3%