NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Los Angeles Lakers	80		Excitement	6.2 [556]		MVP	Chauncey Billups (DET): +13.6%
Detroit Pistons	88		Comeback	1.5 [841]		LVP	Ben Wallace (DET): -15.3%

Los Angeles Lakers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Shaquille O'Neal	0.04	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.12	0.03	0.10	21	68%	0.11	2	-0.06	11	36%	-0.12
Bryon Russell	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kareem Rush	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Devean George	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.00	-0.03	0.00	2	62%	-0.02	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.06
Derek Fisher	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.07	-0.02	-0.04	6	27%	-0.04	0	0.00	3	67%	0.00
Karl Malone	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.04	-0.02	0.00	2	50%	-0.00	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Rick Fox	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.03	-0.04	0.01	4	25%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Gary Payton	-0.09	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.05	-0.03	0.00	11	36%	-0.05	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Slava Medvedenko	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.05	-0.03	0.02	5	25%	-0.10	0	0.00	2	50%	0.00
Luke Walton	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.06	-0.05	0.00	1	0%	-0.03	2	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Kobe Bryant	-0.12	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.11,-0.15,-0.15,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.11,-0.12	-0.12	-0.01	-0.01	25	38%	-0.06	3	-0.06	2	100%	0.00

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chauncey Billups	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.05,0.15,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.04	0.09	-0.00	12	70%	0.24	3	-0.10	9	78%	0.02
Lindsey Hunter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	1	67%	0.01	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Mike James	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	-0.01	0.00	2	100%	0.05	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Darvin Ham	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Darko Milicic	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Corliss Williamson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Richard Hamilton	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.17,-0.13,-0.16,-0.11,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.07	0.02	-0.00	11	59%	0.07	5	-0.12	7	100%	0.02
Rasheed Wallace	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.11,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.05	-0.05	-0.02	-0.00	0.02	23	50%	0.02	2	-0.07	6	100%	0.04
Elden Campbell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.00	3	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tayshaun Prince	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.06	-0.02	-0.00	10	29%	-0.08	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.02
Ben Wallace	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.16	-0.05	-0.05	5	33%	-0.15	1	-0.00	14	29%	-0.14

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	29.4	3.0	38.6	19.8	27.4	3.6	46.3	168.3
league avg	47.8	2.4	27.9	14.3	24.8	2.1	29.8	150.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DET +23.3%

DET +17.4%

DET +10.6%

LAL -4.9%

DET +3.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	LAL	DET	NBA	LAL	DET	NBA
this game	16.6	16.3	15.7	90.9	101.1	100.5
season	15.4	16.2		102.8	99.2
opponent	16.0	15.6		92.6	99.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
LAL	17.7	15.0	19.8	14.6	16.6
DET	20.2	14.4	15.2	16.0	16.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Los Angeles Lakers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Devean George	30	31	0.01	-0.51	0.52	-0.16	6	-14	20	17.4	16.2	1.14	15.5	16.7	-1.22
Karl Malone	39	37	-0.01	-0.49	0.49	0.02	-1	-7	6	18.0	15.5	2.44	17.2	15.6	1.60
Kareem Rush	9	8	-0.07	-0.43	0.35	0.01	-3	-5	2	16.3	16.6	-0.31	18.7	16.1	2.70
Slava Medvedenko	25	23	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	-0.04	-2	-6	4	15.6	17.0	-1.36	16.7	16.1	0.60
Rick Fox	28	28	-0.20	-0.30	0.09	0.03	-8	0	-8	17.3	16.3	1.04	15.8	16.5	-0.70
Luke Walton	23	24	-0.33	-0.17	-0.15	-0.15	-6	-2	-4	16.5	16.7	-0.18	15.2	16.7	-1.45
Gary Payton	80	79	-0.35	-0.14	-0.21	-0.21	-5	-3	-2	16.6	16.5	0.13	15.9	20.6	-4.76
Kobe Bryant	82	80	-0.42	-0.08	-0.35	-0.19	-8	0	-8	16.6	16.8	-0.24	16.3	15.9	0.48
Derek Fisher	37	38	-0.50	-0.00	-0.49	-0.32	-6	-2	-4	15.1	17.7	-2.60	17.1	15.7	1.43
Shaquille O'Neal	87	87	-0.52	0.02	-0.54	-0.29	-8	0	-8	16.5	26.0	-9.49	16.3	0.0	16.30

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ben Wallace	74	74	0.70	-0.20	0.91	0.23	16	-8	24	15.6	20.0	-4.35	16.8	15.7	1.07
Richard Hamilton	82	82	0.53	-0.03	0.55	0.26	9	-1	10	15.9	23.4	-7.53	16.6	17.3	-0.77
Tayshaun Prince	75	76	0.50	-0.00	0.51	0.21	10	-2	12	16.7	13.6	3.15	16.9	14.6	2.35
Chauncey Billups	66	66	0.44	0.06	0.39	0.30	5	3	2	17.5	12.5	4.98	17.3	14.5	2.76
Rasheed Wallace	76	77	0.41	0.09	0.31	0.20	7	1	6	17.1	10.8	6.27	16.7	16.1	0.60
Mike James	8	10	0.07	0.43	-0.37	-0.02	3	5	-2	8.5	17.1	-8.59	16.9	16.6	0.32
Darvin Ham	1	1	0.02	0.48	-0.46	0.08	-2	10	-12	0.0	16.5	-16.49	9.0	16.7	-7.70
Darko Milicic	1	1	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.06	-2	10	-12	0.0	16.5	-16.49	9.0	16.7	-7.70
Lindsey Hunter	19	19	-0.02	0.52	-0.53	0.07	-3	11	-14	16.4	16.3	0.16	13.9	17.4	-3.47
Corliss Williamson	11	11	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	-0.02	0	8	-8	14.8	16.5	-1.69	15.1	16.8	-1.74
Elden Campbell	22	23	-0.13	0.63	-0.76	-0.04	-3	11	-14	17.2	16.0	1.24	16.5	16.7	-0.18

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.5,0.52,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.51,0.48,0.44,0.42,0.47,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.44,0.46,0.51,0.61,0.51,0.48,0.52,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.66,0.56,0.44,0.52,0.5,0.62,0.62,0.62,0.73,0.69,0.81,0.9,0.96,0.99,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
LAL 97, MIA 107	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.57,0.5,0.47,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.43,0.53,0.47,0.42,0.42,0.49,0.46,0.38,0.4,0.35,0.37,0.41,0.46,0.46,0.49,0.5,0.46,0.4,0.52,0.52,0.55,0.48,0.59,0.59,0.56,0.48,0.52,0.7,0.7,0.62,0.67,0.68,0.79,0.81,0.91,0.89,0.96,1,1,1	93.8%
MIA 76, ORL 86	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.5,0.54,0.56,0.53,0.53,0.57,0.55,0.51,0.58,0.57,0.58,0.56,0.53,0.51,0.54,0.53,0.52,0.52,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.43,0.48,0.61,0.55,0.55,0.48,0.52,0.55,0.59,0.56,0.56,0.58,0.66,0.67,0.67,0.77,0.79,0.85,0.78,0.93,0.95,0.99,1,1	93.6%
UTA 109, LAL 119	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.57,0.56,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.51,0.58,0.56,0.6,0.51,0.47,0.47,0.46,0.46,0.58,0.53,0.46,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.37,0.34,0.46,0.49,0.45,0.42,0.48,0.41,0.48,0.56,0.44,0.48,0.46,0.62,0.75,0.63,0.73,0.79,0.88,0.9,0.97,1,1,1,1	93.6%