NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	76		Excitement	6.6 [471]		MVP	Gary Payton (LAL): +8.3%
Los Angeles Lakers	88		Comeback	1.6 [864]		LVP	Tony Parker (SAS): -38.3%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Robert Horry	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.01	0.02	-0.02	7	60%	0.05	1	0.00	6	83%	-0.01
Devin Brown	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.07,0.13,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	-0.01	0.01	10	62%	0.08	2	-0.08	4	75%	0.00
Charlie Ward	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Malik Rose	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Willis	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	2	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Manu Ginobili	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.02	-0.02	0.01	13	50%	-0.03	1	-0.02	6	100%	0.03
Rasho Nesterovic	-0.09	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.06	-0.03	-0.00	7	29%	-0.06	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Hedo Turkoglu	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.10	-0.01	-0.02	5	0%	-0.07	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Bruce Bowen	-0.10	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.08	-0.03	-0.01	5	0%	-0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tim Duncan	-0.12	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.17,-0.17,-0.13,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.08	-0.06	-0.02	18	45%	-0.08	2	-0.04	8	75%	-0.03
Tony Parker	-0.38	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.07,-0.04,-0.07,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.17,-0.19,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27,-0.34,-0.34,-0.38,-0.38,-0.38	-0.28	-0.14	-0.04	18	24%	-0.21	6	-0.17	2	50%	-0.01

Los Angeles Lakers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Gary Payton	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.01	0.06	-0.02	15	47%	0.08	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Derek Fisher	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.01	0.03	-0.01	6	56%	0.06	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.02
Kareem Rush	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.02	0.02	0.00	2	75%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Devean George	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.05	-0.01	0.01	4	83%	0.06	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.00
Kobe Bryant	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.1,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.03,-0.05,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.02,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.04	0.03	-0.02	20	54%	0.14	4	-0.13	8	75%	0.04
Brian Cook	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Slava Medvedenko	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Karl Malone	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.10	-0.03	-0.02	6	40%	-0.06	2	-0.05	8	50%	-0.05
Shaquille O'Neal	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.21,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2	-0.20	-0.15	-0.06	-0.01	10	49%	-0.09	4	-0.11	15	47%	-0.12

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.0	3.4	31.5	19.7	29.5	3.6	51.5	166.2
league avg	47.8	2.4	27.9	14.3	24.8	2.1	29.8	150.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

LAL +82.9%

SAS -7.9%

SAS -27.8%

LAL +6.4%

SAS -3.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	LAL	NBA	SAS	LAL	NBA
this game	18.0	15.3	15.7	88.4	101.1	100.5
season	15.9	15.4		100.1	102.8
opponent	15.6	15.8		99.0	92.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	17.5	17.0	20.9	16.9	18.0
LAL	16.0	17.3	15.8	12.6	15.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Hedo Turkoglu	33	35	0.11	-0.61	0.73	0.14	-1	-11	10	16.8	18.8	-1.99	14.3	16.0	-1.70
Robert Horry	48	48	0.05	-0.55	0.59	-0.39	15	-27	42	17.1	19.2	-2.05	14.9	15.7	-0.81
Kevin Willis	7	6	0.03	-0.53	0.56	0.00	1	-13	14	20.0	17.8	2.16	20.0	15.0	5.05
Charlie Ward	0	1	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.00	0	-12	12	0.0	18.0	-18.01	16.0	15.3	0.71
Devin Brown	52	55	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	-0.29	4	-16	20	17.0	19.5	-2.51	14.3	17.0	-2.69
Bruce Bowen	44	41	-0.31	-0.19	-0.13	0.15	-16	4	-20	18.7	17.2	1.51	16.7	14.0	2.71
Manu Ginobili	62	62	-0.49	-0.01	-0.47	-0.19	-10	-2	-8	18.1	17.7	0.48	15.4	15.1	0.25
Rasho Nesterovic	34	36	-0.52	0.02	-0.53	0.04	-19	7	-26	20.7	16.2	4.46	16.0	14.8	1.24
Tim Duncan	78	80	-0.57	0.07	-0.64	-0.16	-14	2	-16	17.8	19.9	-2.05	15.4	14.4	0.95
Tony Parker	72	71	-0.65	0.15	-0.80	-0.06	-20	8	-28	18.1	17.7	0.36	15.1	16.4	-1.32

Los Angeles Lakers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Shaquille O'Neal	78	80	0.62	-0.12	0.73	0.12	17	-5	22	14.9	18.7	-3.76	17.9	19.3	-1.42
Gary Payton	75	75	0.62	-0.12	0.73	0.15	16	-4	20	15.0	17.2	-2.17	18.1	17.6	0.43
Kobe Bryant	81	80	0.48	0.02	0.45	0.15	11	1	10	14.9	20.7	-5.77	18.0	18.5	-0.52
Karl Malone	67	66	0.40	0.10	0.30	0.23	6	6	0	15.6	14.2	1.43	18.8	15.4	3.40
Devean George	46	44	0.26	0.24	0.02	-0.27	18	-6	24	16.1	14.4	1.63	18.9	17.1	1.84
Derek Fisher	51	50	0.17	0.33	-0.15	0.23	-2	14	-16	14.7	16.1	-1.43	16.4	20.2	-3.75
Brian Cook	1	0	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.00	0	12	-12	16.0	15.3	0.71	0.0	18.0	-18.01
Slava Medvedenko	18	18	-0.00	0.50	-0.51	0.09	-3	15	-18	18.0	14.6	3.41	18.1	18.0	0.13
Kareem Rush	18	17	-0.04	0.54	-0.57	0.05	-3	15	-18	15.8	15.2	0.60	17.5	18.1	-0.60

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.5,0.54,0.54,0.54,0.59,0.61,0.66,0.63,0.6,0.56,0.54,0.54,0.49,0.42,0.4,0.42,0.46,0.44,0.49,0.51,0.56,0.54,0.5,0.48,0.57,0.58,0.61,0.52,0.55,0.65,0.73,0.69,0.63,0.75,0.66,0.6,0.52,0.67,0.63,0.69,0.76,0.87,0.86,0.93,0.99,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
UTA 92, BOS 98	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.53,0.51,0.57,0.59,0.55,0.55,0.49,0.57,0.55,0.49,0.4,0.38,0.44,0.42,0.44,0.41,0.54,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.58,0.52,0.58,0.52,0.52,0.62,0.66,0.66,0.74,0.72,0.58,0.49,0.52,0.58,0.77,0.78,0.84,0.78,0.93,0.96,0.99,0.95,1	94.5%
OKC 97, CHA 103	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.52,0.55,0.59,0.63,0.63,0.62,0.64,0.64,0.57,0.6,0.56,0.53,0.53,0.46,0.42,0.39,0.52,0.55,0.58,0.54,0.58,0.6,0.55,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.55,0.62,0.62,0.69,0.7,0.82,0.74,0.74,0.67,0.71,0.73,0.64,0.84,0.91,0.93,0.9,0.94,0.98,1	93.6%
WAS 91, PHI 100	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.53,0.55,0.6,0.55,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.4,0.47,0.42,0.47,0.46,0.44,0.51,0.56,0.59,0.61,0.5,0.57,0.55,0.55,0.48,0.45,0.55,0.59,0.62,0.63,0.67,0.64,0.85,0.7,0.66,0.57,0.68,0.74,0.81,0.9,0.86,0.85,0.97,1,1	93.4%