NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Sacramento Kings	94		Excitement	8.5 [149]		MVP	Doug Christie (SAC): +6.6%
Dallas Mavericks	92		Comeback	2.6 [211]		LVP	Chris Webber (SAC): -25.5%

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Doug Christie	0.07	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.03	0.03	-0.00	11	54%	0.07	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Darius Songaila	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.02	0.02	0.00	3	80%	0.07	1	-0.04	4	100%	0.04
Mike Bibby	-0.01	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.01,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01	-0.04	0.02	-0.01	20	48%	0.05	2	-0.06	6	83%	0.02
Peja Stojakovic	-0.02	0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.13,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.1,0.07,0.04,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02	-0.09	0.04	-0.03	25	38%	0.03	1	-0.05	3	100%	0.02
Anthony Peeler	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Vlade Divac	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.05	-0.02	-0.00	5	40%	-0.02	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Brad Miller	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.13,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.12	-0.03	-0.01	11	38%	-0.04	3	-0.09	4	0%	-0.06
Chris Webber	-0.26	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.09,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.09,-0.11,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.21,-0.21,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.13,-0.13,-0.14,-0.26	-0.19	-0.08	-0.01	15	45%	-0.01	7	-0.25	8	62%	-0.02

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Antawn Jamison	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.02	0.03	-0.00	8	48%	0.02	0	0.00	5	20%	-0.06
Scott Williams	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eduardo Najera	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	6	50%	0.02	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Michael Finley	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,0,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.01	-0.01	15	48%	0.02	2	-0.04	3	33%	-0.02
Antoine Walker	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.08,-0.03,-0.01,0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.05	0.02	-0.00	14	43%	0.02	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Marquis Daniels	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.09,-0.12,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.18,-0.18,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.10	-0.05	-0.01	13	30%	-0.14	0	0.00	4	25%	-0.06
Steve Nash	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.17	-0.17	-0.01	-0.16	0.00	11	48%	-0.15	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.01
Josh Howard	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.12,-0.14,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.18	-0.14	-0.05	-0.00	9	29%	-0.12	2	-0.06	6	83%	0.01
Dirk Nowitzki	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.18,-0.21,-0.21,-0.23,-0.23,-0.25,-0.26,-0.24	-0.24	-0.15	-0.09	-0.00	22	36%	-0.24	0	0.00	14	79%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	30.1	3.4	33.6	19.6	27.3	3.6	44.1	161.8
league avg	47.8	2.4	27.9	14.3	24.8	2.1	29.8	150.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAC +59.2%

SAC +8.7%

SAC +17.0%

DAL -38.3%

SAC +3.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAC	DAL	NBA	SAC	DAL	NBA
this game	15.8	14.2	15.7	97.9	95.8	100.5
season	14.7	14.6		106.9	109.2
opponent	15.6	15.6		105.0	102.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAC	14.9	16.1	14.0	18.0	15.8
DAL	15.7	12.2	16.0	13.3	14.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Peja Stojakovic	91	91	0.57	-0.07	0.64	0.39	6	-4	10	16.1	10.2	5.85	14.5	10.2	4.27
Doug Christie	84	84	0.57	-0.07	0.64	0.48	3	-1	4	15.5	17.7	-2.29	14.5	12.5	2.00
Mike Bibby	89	89	0.57	-0.07	0.63	0.39	6	-4	10	16.0	13.1	2.81	14.0	17.7	-3.74
Darius Songaila	42	42	0.43	0.07	0.36	0.40	1	1	0	16.5	15.1	1.38	14.2	14.3	-0.15
Chris Webber	72	72	0.42	0.07	0.35	0.28	5	-3	8	16.0	14.9	1.17	14.2	14.4	-0.17
Vlade Divac	20	20	0.04	0.46	-0.42	-0.08	4	-2	6	16.9	15.4	1.45	14.9	14.1	0.82
Brad Miller	51	50	-0.01	0.51	-0.52	0.08	-3	5	-8	13.9	17.9	-3.98	14.7	13.8	0.86
Anthony Peeler	31	32	-0.09	0.59	-0.68	0.26	-12	14	-26	15.6	15.8	-0.15	12.9	14.9	-2.06

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Scott Williams	1	1	0.00	-0.50	0.51	0.00	0	-2	2	15.0	14.2	0.76	31.0	15.6	15.41
Josh Howard	33	36	-0.09	-0.41	0.31	-0.09	0	-2	2	14.1	14.3	-0.20	12.7	17.5	-4.80
Eduardo Najera	34	34	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	-0.28	5	-7	12	13.9	14.5	-0.57	17.2	15.0	2.25
Antawn Jamison	40	40	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	-0.14	-1	-1	0	14.1	14.4	-0.26	15.7	15.8	-0.09
Marquis Daniels	59	56	-0.24	-0.26	0.03	-0.30	2	-4	6	14.3	14.2	0.05	16.5	14.6	1.89
Antoine Walker	50	50	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.09	-6	4	-10	14.4	14.1	0.31	14.9	16.7	-1.82
Michael Finley	91	90	-0.50	0.00	-0.51	-0.45	-2	0	-2	13.9	19.8	-5.85	16.3	7.0	9.33
Steve Nash	87	88	-0.52	0.02	-0.53	-0.43	-3	1	-4	14.3	14.2	0.03	15.7	15.7	0.00
Dirk Nowitzki	85	85	-0.59	0.09	-0.68	-0.44	-5	3	-8	14.7	10.5	4.18	15.7	16.5	-0.80

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.45,0.46,0.43,0.43,0.44,0.39,0.37,0.37,0.43,0.45,0.42,0.43,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.59,0.51,0.56,0.61,0.63,0.6,0.63,0.7,0.64,0.58,0.58,0.52,0.56,0.44,0.44,0.4,0.3,0.26,0.29,0.29,0.19,0.13,0.19,0.13,0.07,0.1,0.04,0.16,0
Game		Similarity Score
IND 96, DEN 85	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.49,0.48,0.47,0.46,0.38,0.45,0.39,0.45,0.47,0.47,0.48,0.42,0.45,0.47,0.6,0.63,0.58,0.66,0.64,0.61,0.56,0.59,0.63,0.65,0.66,0.66,0.64,0.7,0.65,0.52,0.52,0.37,0.37,0.4,0.38,0.34,0.3,0.24,0.23,0.2,0.15,0.09,0.04,0.16,0.06,0.01,0	93.8%
DET 93, NJN 83	0.5,0.49,0.44,0.42,0.43,0.44,0.42,0.37,0.34,0.37,0.35,0.29,0.27,0.35,0.4,0.4,0.38,0.44,0.51,0.56,0.59,0.54,0.54,0.64,0.59,0.63,0.62,0.6,0.61,0.58,0.64,0.65,0.55,0.45,0.48,0.48,0.32,0.34,0.26,0.25,0.29,0.27,0.22,0.2,0.13,0.1,0.04,0.01,0,0	93.3%
ATL 97, BOS 86	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.44,0.48,0.46,0.38,0.37,0.37,0.35,0.37,0.36,0.38,0.46,0.47,0.49,0.53,0.56,0.58,0.56,0.54,0.59,0.49,0.46,0.56,0.5,0.6,0.69,0.61,0.58,0.64,0.52,0.59,0.55,0.37,0.33,0.32,0.42,0.26,0.32,0.17,0.09,0.13,0.09,0.02,0.04,0.01,0.02,0,0	93.3%