NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	93		Excitement	6.3 [536]		MVP	Malik Rose (SAS): +14.8%
New Jersey Nets	83		Comeback	1.4 [743]		LVP	Kenyon Martin (NJN): -26.2%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Malik Rose	0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.06	0.09	-0.00	9	70%	0.17	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Steve Kerr	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.05	0.06	0.00	2	100%	0.10	0	0.00	2	50%	0.00
Manu Ginobili	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.01	0.01	-0.02	8	60%	0.04	1	-0.00	4	100%	0.02
Tim Duncan	0.01	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.04,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.03	0.05	0.01	18	63%	0.17	6	-0.16	10	90%	0.07
Kevin Willis	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
David Robinson	-0.00	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.00	-0.01	4	60%	0.03	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Bruce Bowen	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	4	40%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Speedy Claxton	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.00	4	30%	-0.04	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Tony Parker	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.07	-0.00	-0.02	13	45%	0.01	2	-0.06	5	60%	-0.02
Stephen Jackson	-0.14	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.10	-0.04	0.00	7	36%	-0.06	4	-0.08	0	0%	0.00

New Jersey Nets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jason Kidd	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.04,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.07,-0.04,0.01,0.07,0.11,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04	0.04	0.04	0.01	0.01	23	56%	0.09	2	-0.04	6	83%	0.03
Richard Jefferson	0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	11	58%	0.02	1	-0.00	11	82%	-0.01
Jason Collins	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	0.00	3	58%	-0.01	0	0.00	6	83%	0.00
Kerry Kittles	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.01	9	40%	-0.02	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Aaron Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.06	-0.01	9	48%	-0.05	0	0.00	3	67%	0.02
Dikembe Mutombo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.06	-0.02	-0.00	1	0%	-0.02	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Rodney Rogers	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.08	-0.01	-0.00	3	12%	-0.06	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Lucious Harris	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.10	-0.01	-0.01	7	28%	-0.08	1	-0.02	4	75%	0.00
Kenyon Martin	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.21,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26	-0.26	-0.22	-0.08	-0.05	8	25%	-0.03	8	-0.23	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.2	2.8	34.0	20.0	32.2	3.5	40.2	160.9
league avg	46.1	2.3	28.0	14.7	24.5	2.3	29.9	149.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +52.5%

NJN -2.9%

NJN -8.6%

SAS +1.0%

SAS +8.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	NJN	NBA	SAS	NJN	NBA
this game	17.0	15.6	15.5	104.5	94.3	101.6
season	15.7	15.0		102.5	101.1
opponent	15.9	15.4		96.1	96.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	16.2	15.5	19.8	16.8	17.0
NJN	15.8	16.5	16.2	13.8	15.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Manu Ginobili	50	49	0.59	-0.09	0.68	0.15	15	-5	20	15.8	18.5	-2.69	14.4	17.1	-2.68
Tim Duncan	85	84	0.52	-0.02	0.54	0.20	11	-1	12	17.2	11.5	5.74	15.5	16.5	-0.99
Tony Parker	64	63	0.43	0.07	0.37	0.23	7	3	4	17.5	15.7	1.75	14.4	18.6	-4.19
Steve Kerr	17	17	0.24	0.26	-0.02	0.09	5	5	0	17.8	16.8	0.97	13.7	16.0	-2.29
Bruce Bowen	52	52	0.22	0.28	-0.05	0.08	5	5	0	17.1	16.8	0.38	17.2	13.2	3.90
Malik Rose	52	49	0.21	0.29	-0.08	0.03	6	4	2	17.1	16.8	0.38	17.1	13.6	3.49
Kevin Willis	2	3	0.17	0.33	-0.17	0.02	5	5	0	14.0	17.0	-3.05	9.3	15.8	-6.44
David Robinson	39	40	0.10	0.40	-0.29	0.16	-2	12	-14	16.4	17.5	-1.10	14.2	16.7	-2.44
Speedy Claxton	25	25	0.07	0.43	-0.37	-0.02	3	7	-4	15.7	17.5	-1.75	18.6	14.4	4.19
Stephen Jackson	59	58	-0.05	0.55	-0.60	0.10	-5	15	-20	17.6	15.7	1.88	15.7	15.3	0.34

New Jersey Nets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jason Collins	46	45	0.04	-0.54	0.58	-0.08	4	-14	18	16.5	14.5	1.98	18.2	15.7	2.52
Kerry Kittles	62	64	-0.07	-0.43	0.35	-0.16	3	-13	16	15.5	15.8	-0.30	17.0	17.0	0.02
Kenyon Martin	69	72	-0.21	-0.29	0.07	-0.18	-1	-9	8	14.9	18.1	-3.25	17.1	16.6	0.41
Rodney Rogers	12	10	-0.27	-0.23	-0.05	0.02	-10	0	-10	15.4	15.6	-0.16	14.7	17.3	-2.57
Aaron Williams	44	44	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.14	-5	-5	0	15.5	15.6	-0.11	15.7	18.2	-2.52
Lucious Harris	38	40	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.15	-6	-4	-2	17.0	14.5	2.49	17.1	16.8	0.31
Dikembe Mutombo	11	11	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	0.03	-15	5	-20	18.5	15.1	3.42	18.1	16.8	1.27
Richard Jefferson	70	70	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.17	-10	0	-10	14.5	19.6	-5.03	16.9	17.1	-0.16
Jason Kidd	88	89	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.21	-10	0	-10	15.6	0.0	15.56	17.0	0.0	16.98

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.45,0.45,0.5,0.56,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.45,0.48,0.42,0.38,0.34,0.38,0.39,0.32,0.32,0.39,0.33,0.36,0.46,0.27,0.29,0.28,0.33,0.33,0.45,0.48,0.38,0.48,0.44,0.4,0.28,0.15,0.19,0.15,0.24,0.23,0.18,0.15,0.22,0.39,0.07,0.01,0.01,0
Game		Similarity Score
CHA 98, NYK 91	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.45,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.58,0.55,0.52,0.55,0.49,0.42,0.38,0.39,0.37,0.39,0.34,0.28,0.28,0.32,0.33,0.35,0.34,0.36,0.42,0.52,0.45,0.35,0.41,0.37,0.37,0.35,0.22,0.13,0.18,0.21,0.13,0.17,0.15,0.13,0.14,0.11,0.16,0,0	92.7%
HOU 100, CHA 89	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.53,0.55,0.53,0.49,0.53,0.53,0.42,0.48,0.53,0.47,0.42,0.44,0.4,0.35,0.39,0.36,0.42,0.39,0.46,0.42,0.37,0.4,0.37,0.36,0.33,0.38,0.45,0.38,0.44,0.48,0.32,0.13,0.1,0.08,0.11,0.15,0.14,0.19,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.06,0,0	92.5%
POR 101, GSW 93	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.53,0.47,0.51,0.45,0.45,0.55,0.53,0.54,0.53,0.47,0.47,0.51,0.46,0.44,0.41,0.41,0.44,0.42,0.39,0.37,0.34,0.34,0.33,0.33,0.42,0.42,0.35,0.38,0.34,0.3,0.15,0.19,0.16,0.12,0.17,0.12,0.08,0.12,0.09,0.19,0.07,0.03,0.01,0	92.4%