NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	85		Excitement	3.9 [1009]		MVP	Jason Kidd (NJN): +10.9%
New Jersey Nets	97		Comeback	1.7 [935]		LVP	Richard Jefferson (NJN): -18.1%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ben Wallace	0.04	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	-0.02	0.02	-0.05	8	59%	0.06	2	-0.02	6	50%	-0.00
Tayshaun Prince	-0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	5	40%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Clifford Robinson	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.06	-0.01	0.06	8	83%	0.03	3	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Chauncey Billups	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	0.00	7	50%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Michael Curry	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.01	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Richard Hamilton	-0.04	0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	17	54%	0.04	3	-0.07	5	100%	0.03
Chucky Atkins	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.13	-0.01	-0.06	8	33%	-0.03	4	-0.05	2	100%	0.00
Mehmet Okur	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.12	-0.01	-0.04	9	20%	-0.07	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.00
Corliss Williamson	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.11	-0.01	-0.02	9	52%	-0.04	4	-0.06	11	82%	0.01

New Jersey Nets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jason Kidd	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.1,0.09,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.14,0.13,0.14,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.00	0.04	-0.06	21	62%	0.17	5	-0.06	13	85%	0.01
Anthony Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.12	0.01	0.02	4	125%	0.11	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kenyon Martin	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	-0.00	-0.00	-0.05	12	54%	0.04	0	0.00	11	64%	0.01
Lucious Harris	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.02	0.00	-0.05	10	43%	0.03	0	0.00	3	33%	0.00
Aaron Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.01	-0.00	5	58%	0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.00
Brian Scalabrine	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tamar Slay	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.05	0.00	-0.05	3	0%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jason Collins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	3	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kerry Kittles	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.03	0.01	-0.01	9	41%	-0.01	0	0.00	4	75%	0.00
Rodney Rogers	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.12	-0.01	-0.08	4	17%	-0.04	2	-0.02	4	50%	-0.00
Richard Jefferson	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.17,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.18	-0.19	-0.02	-0.02	11	18%	-0.10	4	-0.08	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.0	3.4	32.5	17.4	30.4	3.4	31.7	146.8
league avg	46.1	2.3	28.0	14.7	24.5	2.3	29.9	149.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

NJN +25.2%

NJN +6.4%

NJN +4.3%

NJN +12.0%

NJN +2.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	NJN	NBA	DET	NJN	NBA
this game	16.2	15.0	15.5	91.4	105.4	101.6
season	16.8	15.0		101.7	101.1
opponent	15.9	15.6		96.1	97.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DET	18.7	16.8	15.0	14.2	16.2
NJN	14.0	13.8	13.2	19.1	15.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Michael Curry	16	16	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	0.01	-5	-7	2	15.7	16.3	-0.59	13.9	15.2	-1.23
Tayshaun Prince	26	26	-0.17	-0.33	0.15	-0.03	-5	-7	2	18.2	15.4	2.80	15.4	14.8	0.65
Chauncey Billups	37	37	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	0.03	-8	-4	-4	16.8	15.8	0.97	13.4	16.0	-2.69
Mehmet Okur	43	41	-0.30	-0.20	-0.09	-0.00	-10	-2	-8	17.5	15.0	2.49	14.6	15.3	-0.71
Chucky Atkins	56	55	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.18	-4	-8	4	15.8	16.8	-0.97	16.0	13.4	2.69
Corliss Williamson	59	57	-0.31	-0.19	-0.11	-0.16	-5	-7	2	15.2	17.9	-2.65	15.5	14.1	1.45
Clifford Robinson	57	58	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.14	-6	-6	0	15.1	17.9	-2.80	15.4	14.2	1.19
Richard Hamilton	85	85	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.12	-9	-3	-6	16.3	14.6	1.69	14.6	18.9	-4.22
Ben Wallace	86	85	-0.39	-0.11	-0.27	-0.15	-8	-4	-4	16.2	15.6	0.65	14.8	16.3	-1.44

New Jersey Nets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Richard Jefferson	74	74	0.40	0.10	0.31	0.08	11	1	10	14.5	16.8	-2.26	16.1	16.6	-0.51
Kenyon Martin	60	63	0.37	0.13	0.23	-0.05	14	-2	16	14.8	15.2	-0.31	16.8	14.9	1.83
Jason Kidd	76	77	0.36	0.14	0.22	0.13	8	4	4	14.8	15.5	-0.66	15.8	17.9	-2.06
Kerry Kittles	53	53	0.26	0.24	0.02	0.03	8	4	4	13.6	16.8	-3.28	15.8	16.6	-0.79
Aaron Williams	42	44	0.26	0.24	0.02	0.11	5	7	-2	16.3	13.8	2.53	15.8	16.5	-0.63
Jason Collins	50	49	0.24	0.26	-0.02	0.03	7	5	2	13.8	16.3	-2.53	16.5	15.8	0.63
Lucious Harris	39	40	0.24	0.26	-0.02	0.12	4	8	-4	16.8	13.6	3.28	16.6	15.8	0.79
Rodney Rogers	40	41	0.23	0.27	-0.04	0.08	5	7	-2	14.5	15.3	-0.76	16.7	15.8	0.87
Anthony Johnson	16	16	0.14	0.36	-0.22	0.02	4	8	-4	15.5	14.8	0.66	17.9	15.8	2.06
Tamar Slay	5	4	-0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.09	-3	15	-18	20.6	14.6	5.97	10.0	16.4	-6.45
Brian Scalabrine	5	4	-0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.09	-3	15	-18	20.6	14.6	5.97	10.0	16.4	-6.45

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.43,0.43,0.42,0.39,0.42,0.49,0.53,0.53,0.56,0.63,0.64,0.62,0.71,0.65,0.65,0.7,0.75,0.78,0.75,0.73,0.67,0.8,0.71,0.75,0.82,0.89,0.88,0.95,0.93,0.94,0.91,0.95,0.96,0.96,0.95,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
SAC 100, GSW 114	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.48,0.45,0.47,0.42,0.43,0.43,0.51,0.47,0.51,0.58,0.65,0.58,0.64,0.69,0.67,0.67,0.7,0.68,0.74,0.77,0.75,0.7,0.7,0.81,0.72,0.83,0.83,0.84,0.91,0.88,0.89,0.96,0.94,0.97,0.99,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.98,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	96.5%
NJN 56, DET 78	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.5,0.42,0.41,0.49,0.53,0.53,0.49,0.53,0.6,0.6,0.64,0.66,0.58,0.6,0.63,0.75,0.73,0.67,0.75,0.75,0.82,0.77,0.69,0.78,0.85,0.92,0.95,0.94,0.96,0.97,0.98,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.3%
MEM 91, ATL 97	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.43,0.4,0.43,0.39,0.45,0.47,0.47,0.55,0.49,0.55,0.57,0.58,0.55,0.62,0.65,0.65,0.68,0.73,0.71,0.78,0.72,0.64,0.75,0.74,0.82,0.92,0.91,0.95,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.99,0.99,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.97,0.97,0.96,0.97,0.96,1,1,1	96.0%