NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Memphis Grizzlies	91		Excitement	3.9 [998]		MVP	Jason Terry (ATL): +8.4%
Atlanta Hawks	97		Comeback	1.6 [791]		LVP	Jason Williams (MEM): -19.6%

Memphis Grizzlies
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Earl Watson	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.12	-0.01	0.06	11	77%	0.06	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Mike Batiste	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	7	37%	0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Wesley Person	-0.01	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	6	50%	-0.01	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Ryan Humphrey	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	3	62%	0.01	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.00
Pau Gasol	-0.02	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.03,0,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.04	-0.01	0.05	19	57%	0.01	1	-0.03	6	83%	0.01
Stromile Swift	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	0.01	5	61%	-0.00	1	-0.03	8	87%	0.01
Brevin Knight	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.01	5	20%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shane Battier	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.07,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.09	-0.02	-0.04	8	44%	-0.02	2	-0.06	9	78%	0.01
Lorenzen Wright	-0.11	0,0,-0.01,0,0.01,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.09	-0.01	0.00	11	36%	-0.04	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Jason Williams	-0.20	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.12,-0.14,-0.16,-0.19,-0.19,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2	-0.18	-0.03	-0.01	9	0%	-0.15	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jason Terry	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.02	0.05	-0.02	19	55%	0.13	2	-0.05	4	100%	0.02
Dion Glover	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.03,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.05	-0.01	0.01	17	59%	0.05	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Ira Newble	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.05	-0.00	0.02	12	58%	0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.06,0.09,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.06	0.01	-0.07	19	45%	0.04	2	-0.01	4	75%	-0.00
Dan Dickau	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Alan Henderson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	2	50%	0.00	1	-0.00	2	50%	-0.00
Jermaine Jackson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	0.00	0.01	2	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Theo Ratliff	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.04,-0.05,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.13	-0.01	-0.03	15	37%	-0.02	4	-0.09	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.2	1.8	31.0	15.8	28.6	1.8	28.2	129.4
league avg	46.1	2.3	28.0	14.7	24.5	2.3	29.9	149.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ATL +42.1%

MEM -4.8%

MEM -2.5%

ATL +13.9%

ATL +1.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MEM	ATL	NBA	MEM	ATL	NBA
this game	16.1	14.9	15.5	96.8	105.4	101.6
season	15.3	15.1		101.8	99.5
opponent	15.7	15.2		103.1	105.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MEM	17.8	15.3	16.1	15.3	16.1
ATL	15.7	14.7	12.2	17.5	14.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Memphis Grizzlies
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ryan Humphrey	22	20	-0.03	-0.47	0.43	-0.15	4	-10	14	16.2	16.1	0.17	15.8	14.6	1.20
Mike Batiste	26	26	-0.15	-0.35	0.19	-0.04	-4	-2	-2	17.0	15.7	1.30	14.8	14.9	-0.02
Stromile Swift	37	40	-0.17	-0.33	0.17	-0.23	2	-8	10	15.1	16.7	-1.58	15.2	14.6	0.56
Brevin Knight	49	47	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	-0.43	9	-15	24	16.2	16.0	0.27	16.0	13.6	2.42
Earl Watson	49	47	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	-0.43	9	-15	24	16.6	15.6	0.95	16.3	13.4	2.94
Wesley Person	45	45	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	0.11	-15	9	-24	15.6	16.6	-0.95	13.4	16.3	-2.94
Jason Williams	45	45	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	0.11	-15	9	-24	16.0	16.2	-0.27	13.6	16.0	-2.42
Shane Battier	68	66	-0.35	-0.15	-0.19	-0.29	-2	-4	2	15.7	17.0	-1.30	14.9	14.8	0.02
Lorenzen Wright	46	45	-0.38	-0.12	-0.27	0.12	-17	11	-28	17.3	14.9	2.45	14.3	15.4	-1.03
Pau Gasol	83	79	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.39	-1	-5	4	15.8	18.4	-2.57	14.8	15.5	-0.70

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dion Glover	77	78	0.44	0.06	0.38	0.24	7	-1	8	14.6	15.9	-1.28	15.9	17.1	-1.24
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	81	81	0.44	0.06	0.38	0.26	6	0	6	15.0	14.2	0.77	15.9	17.5	-1.67
Jason Terry	81	83	0.36	0.14	0.22	0.33	1	5	-4	14.9	14.5	0.36	15.9	17.6	-1.74
Ira Newble	73	76	0.36	0.14	0.22	0.39	-1	7	-8	14.1	17.6	-3.49	16.1	16.2	-0.16
Theo Ratliff	69	72	0.36	0.14	0.21	0.21	5	1	4	14.3	16.5	-2.16	16.5	14.7	1.79
Alan Henderson	33	34	0.20	0.30	-0.10	0.17	1	5	-4	16.2	14.1	2.11	15.6	16.4	-0.84
Jermaine Jackson	25	25	0.18	0.32	-0.14	0.01	6	0	6	16.8	14.1	2.72	16.6	15.9	0.74
Dan Dickau	21	21	0.16	0.34	-0.18	0.01	5	1	4	14.9	14.8	0.06	17.5	15.7	1.78

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.43,0.4,0.43,0.39,0.45,0.47,0.47,0.55,0.49,0.55,0.57,0.58,0.55,0.62,0.65,0.65,0.68,0.73,0.71,0.78,0.72,0.64,0.75,0.74,0.82,0.92,0.91,0.95,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.99,0.99,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.97,0.97,0.96,0.97,0.96,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIN 101, HOU 121	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.43,0.45,0.42,0.44,0.47,0.51,0.53,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.55,0.6,0.67,0.71,0.71,0.7,0.7,0.76,0.76,0.75,0.73,0.7,0.76,0.8,0.91,0.94,0.94,0.96,0.95,0.95,0.97,0.96,0.97,0.97,0.96,0.96,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.6%
LAC 93, PHX 124	0.5,0.51,0.44,0.44,0.45,0.41,0.37,0.38,0.41,0.49,0.49,0.55,0.55,0.6,0.54,0.55,0.62,0.65,0.67,0.68,0.69,0.71,0.69,0.67,0.7,0.82,0.84,0.84,0.92,0.95,0.94,0.98,0.97,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.4%
CLE 91, GSW 113	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.52,0.45,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.53,0.55,0.58,0.63,0.6,0.6,0.62,0.67,0.69,0.65,0.71,0.73,0.77,0.7,0.7,0.73,0.81,0.84,0.93,0.96,0.93,0.95,0.95,0.94,0.9,0.95,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.2%