NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Los Angeles Lakers	87		Excitement	7.7 [286]		MVP	Kobe Bryant (LAL): +26.7%
San Antonio Spurs	85		Comeback	30.8 [27]		LVP	Tim Duncan (SAS): -27.9%

Los Angeles Lakers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kobe Bryant	0.27	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.15,-0.17,-0.2,-0.2,-0.19,-0.19,-0.21,-0.21,-0.2,-0.2,0.1,0.1,0.27	-0.08	0.33	-0.02	27	44%	0.32	2	-0.05	9	56%	-0.05
Samaki Walker	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	-0.00	-0.01	7	50%	0.01	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.04
Lindsey Hunter	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brian Shaw	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rick Fox	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.05	0.00	-0.00	5	53%	0.01	2	-0.05	5	80%	0.01
Devean George	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.05	-0.02	-0.00	4	25%	-0.03	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Shaquille O'Neal	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.09,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.02	-0.06	0.03	18	52%	-0.05	2	-0.06	6	67%	-0.01
Robert Horry	-0.20	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,-0.06,-0.2	0.07	-0.25	0.02	8	81%	-0.02	2	-0.18	0	0%	0.00
Derek Fisher	-0.22	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.22	-0.06	-0.15	0.01	9	30%	-0.22	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Malik Rose	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.03	0.02	0.00	3	75%	0.05	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Steven Smith	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.01	0.02	-0.01	5	46%	0.02	0	0.00	3	100%	0.02
Charles Smith	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mark Bryant	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bruce Bowen	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.04	-0.08	0.00	6	62%	-0.04	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
David Robinson	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	0.04	-0.07	0.02	9	60%	-0.05	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03
Terry Porter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Danny Ferry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.06	-0.02	-0.00	4	0%	-0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Antonio Daniels	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.08	-0.01	-0.00	11	31%	-0.09	0	0.00	4	100%	0.03
Tony Parker	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.10	-0.03	-0.01	14	45%	0.00	4	-0.12	5	100%	0.02
Tim Duncan	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.03,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,-0.28	-0.28	-0.00	-0.26	0.01	15	65%	-0.02	4	-0.26	16	75%	-0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	434.2	2.7	30.3	20.7	32.0	2.8	41.0	563.7
league avg	46.4	2.2	28.5	14.6	24.5	2.3	30.0	149.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

LAL +35.4%

SAS -26.5%

LAL +45.0%

SAS -5.7%

LAL +1.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	LAL	SAS	NBA	LAL	SAS	NBA
this game	17.0	17.5	15.6	104.8	101.2	102.3
season	15.3	15.8		106.9	104.3
opponent	15.7	15.4		98.0	99.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
LAL	16.4	19.9	16.2	15.5	17.0
SAS	17.0	16.1	17.3	19.5	17.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Los Angeles Lakers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Rick Fox	55	55	0.70	-0.20	0.90	0.52	6	-4	10	16.8	17.4	-0.58	18.1	16.5	1.57
Robert Horry	63	64	0.67	-0.17	0.85	0.44	8	-6	14	16.5	18.4	-1.88	18.2	15.4	2.71
Kobe Bryant	75	76	0.59	-0.09	0.68	0.38	7	-5	12	16.9	17.4	-0.44	17.8	15.0	2.78
Derek Fisher	60	61	0.57	-0.07	0.64	0.51	2	0	2	17.3	16.0	1.29	17.7	17.0	0.70
Shaquille O'Neal	68	70	0.54	-0.04	0.57	0.48	2	0	2	17.3	15.3	2.00	17.4	18.3	-0.93
Devean George	17	17	-0.07	0.56	-0.63	-0.01	-2	4	-6	18.2	16.7	1.58	14.0	18.4	-4.40
Lindsey Hunter	18	18	-0.14	0.64	-0.79	-0.09	-2	4	-6	15.5	17.4	-1.88	17.2	17.6	-0.37
Brian Shaw	25	25	-0.17	0.67	-0.84	-0.02	-5	7	-12	16.3	17.3	-0.94	17.6	17.5	0.18
Samaki Walker	34	34	-0.19	0.69	-0.89	-0.02	-6	8	-14	17.5	16.6	0.89	16.6	18.1	-1.50

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Malik Rose	28	29	0.27	-0.77	1.03	0.00	9	-11	20	15.9	18.3	-2.48	15.9	17.6	-1.66
Mark Bryant	5	6	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	0.02	-3	1	-4	14.0	17.7	-3.73	17.2	17.0	0.21
Antonio Daniels	46	44	-0.09	-0.41	0.33	-0.09	0	-2	2	17.4	17.6	-0.22	16.8	17.2	-0.34
Terry Porter	6	6	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.06	-4	2	-6	20.3	17.3	3.04	14.3	17.2	-2.85
Steven Smith	38	38	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.26	1	-3	4	18.0	17.1	0.89	17.3	16.7	0.68
Bruce Bowen	59	61	-0.26	-0.24	-0.01	-0.23	-1	-1	0	17.7	17.0	0.73	17.0	16.8	0.21
Tony Parker	78	77	-0.30	-0.20	-0.09	-0.35	2	-4	6	17.3	20.3	-3.04	17.2	14.3	2.85
David Robinson	60	57	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	-0.37	-4	2	-6	17.9	16.6	1.24	17.6	15.6	2.04
Danny Ferry	27	25	-0.56	0.06	-0.61	-0.44	-4	2	-6	17.4	17.5	-0.10	16.2	17.3	-1.05
Tim Duncan	73	72	-0.61	0.11	-0.71	-0.43	-6	4	-10	17.8	15.9	1.84	17.0	16.8	0.18

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.55,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.43,0.43,0.46,0.49,0.53,0.53,0.5,0.58,0.55,0.53,0.47,0.49,0.53,0.61,0.64,0.64,0.64,0.61,0.58,0.58,0.63,0.73,0.76,0.62,0.64,0.68,0.72,0.66,0.77,0.85,0.81,0.87,0.91,0.89,0.84,0.86,0.93,0.95,0.86,0.85,0.57,0.42,0
Game		Similarity Score
DEN 94, NOH 93	0.5,0.49,0.55,0.52,0.57,0.54,0.48,0.43,0.45,0.41,0.37,0.45,0.42,0.5,0.49,0.47,0.53,0.58,0.58,0.68,0.66,0.64,0.58,0.61,0.59,0.67,0.74,0.75,0.69,0.64,0.67,0.68,0.78,0.69,0.73,0.74,0.68,0.78,0.81,0.9,0.83,0.85,0.78,0.85,0.91,0.69,0.63,0.68,0.58,0	91.4%
MIL 110, WAS 109	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.63,0.59,0.56,0.6,0.55,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.56,0.57,0.62,0.61,0.64,0.63,0.6,0.72,0.68,0.64,0.66,0.7,0.78,0.7,0.6,0.75,0.72,0.76,0.73,0.74,0.74,0.81,0.83,0.81,0.79,0.81,0.82,0.85,0.89,0.88,0.92,0.81,0.83,0.9,0.9,0.55,0.42,0	91.4%
GSW 82, POR 78	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.47,0.53,0.45,0.4,0.38,0.49,0.5,0.44,0.51,0.58,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.61,0.64,0.7,0.73,0.74,0.67,0.78,0.76,0.73,0.74,0.75,0.69,0.73,0.8,0.75,0.78,0.85,0.83,0.77,0.79,0.82,0.81,0.82,0.62,0.72,0.57,0.15,0	91.0%