NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	88		Excitement	5.7 [667]		MVP	Malik Rose (SAS): +11.3%
Los Angeles Lakers	85		Comeback	1.8 [393]		LVP	Tim Duncan (SAS): -27.8%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Malik Rose	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.11,0.11	-0.02	0.11	-0.02	8	45%	0.11	0	0.00	4	75%	0.00
Antonio Daniels	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07	0.08	-0.00	0.01	10	67%	0.07	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Mark Bryant	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.00	0.01	4	75%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bruce Bowen	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.01	-0.00	12	54%	0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Danny Ferry	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	-0.00	-0.01	5	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Steven Smith	-0.01	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.00	-0.01	0.01	4	64%	0.01	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.01
Terry Porter	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	4	25%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tony Parker	-0.13	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.15	-0.01	-0.02	8	28%	-0.06	4	-0.07	2	50%	-0.01
Tim Duncan	-0.28	0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.07,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.16,-0.28	-0.20	-0.10	-0.02	19	54%	0.07	10	-0.35	12	58%	-0.03

Los Angeles Lakers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Brian Shaw	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.07	-0.00	-0.00	6	75%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Samaki Walker	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Lindsey Hunter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Derek Fisher	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.03	-0.01	8	60%	0.01	2	-0.03	4	75%	-0.02
Rick Fox	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	6	67%	0.04	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Robert Horry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.01	0.01	6	58%	0.02	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Devean George	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	-0.00	5	20%	-0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Shaquille O'Neal	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.08,-0.15,-0.15,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.14,-0.1,-0.18,-0.18	-0.18	-0.12	-0.06	0.00	16	45%	-0.12	3	-0.06	10	50%	-0.05
Kobe Bryant	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.08,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.25	-0.26	-0.04	-0.18	0.03	25	50%	-0.04	4	-0.22	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	587.8	3.4	26.6	-700.5	25.2	2.8	37.3	-17.6
league avg	46.4	2.2	28.5	14.6	24.5	2.3	30.0	149.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +32.6%

SAS +1.2%

SAS +12.4%

LAL -1.2%

SAS +5.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	LAL	NBA	SAS	LAL	NBA
this game	16.9	15.4	15.6	97.8	96.6	102.3
season	15.8	15.3		104.3	106.9
opponent	15.4	15.7		99.8	98.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	14.1	15.5	17.7	20.7	16.9
LAL	16.5	15.2	17.4	12.6	15.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Danny Ferry	45	43	0.74	-0.24	0.97	0.24	17	-14	31	16.2	17.6	-1.38	16.0	14.9	1.06
Malik Rose	59	57	0.58	-0.08	0.67	0.29	10	-7	17	16.6	17.5	-0.84	15.4	15.4	-0.02
Tim Duncan	85	84	0.43	0.07	0.35	0.40	1	2	-1	16.9	17.0	-0.07	15.5	12.7	2.79
Antonio Daniels	37	37	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.20	7	-4	11	18.4	15.9	2.50	13.4	16.8	-3.41
Terry Porter	25	23	0.26	0.24	0.02	0.05	7	-4	11	18.4	16.4	1.98	15.9	15.2	0.68
Tony Parker	65	64	0.24	0.26	-0.03	0.38	-5	8	-13	16.4	18.4	-1.98	15.5	15.2	0.22
Mark Bryant	36	35	-0.01	0.51	-0.52	0.14	-5	8	-13	17.4	16.6	0.81	15.1	15.6	-0.49
Bruce Bowen	62	60	-0.03	0.53	-0.56	0.32	-12	15	-27	17.0	16.7	0.37	16.1	13.8	2.33
Steven Smith	36	37	-0.11	0.61	-0.72	0.04	-5	8	-13	16.1	17.5	-1.42	15.1	15.6	-0.47

Los Angeles Lakers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Samaki Walker	41	41	-0.15	-0.35	0.21	-0.12	-1	-2	1	17.2	13.9	3.30	16.0	17.7	-1.62
Lindsey Hunter	6	7	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	0.01	-6	3	-9	14.8	15.5	-0.62	14.9	17.1	-2.25
Rick Fox	52	53	-0.21	-0.29	0.09	-0.29	3	-6	9	15.8	14.8	0.97	14.8	19.9	-5.07
Derek Fisher	69	71	-0.23	-0.27	0.05	-0.46	8	-11	19	15.2	16.2	-0.95	16.9	17.1	-0.15
Kobe Bryant	77	78	-0.28	-0.22	-0.07	-0.43	5	-8	13	15.7	13.5	2.23	17.6	12.9	4.63
Devean George	37	37	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.09	-7	4	-11	14.4	16.1	-1.69	19.9	14.8	5.07
Brian Shaw	24	24	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	0.06	-13	10	-23	15.2	15.5	-0.22	15.6	17.4	-1.78
Shaquille O'Neal	73	76	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.37	0	-3	3	15.4	15.3	0.17	17.3	14.9	2.46
Robert Horry	61	63	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.36	-4	1	-5	14.4	17.6	-3.15	17.0	16.7	0.38

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.43,0.46,0.44,0.45,0.53,0.54,0.6,0.62,0.56,0.43,0.38,0.42,0.38,0.38,0.31,0.32,0.25,0.2,0.22,0.15,0.08,0.1,0.16,0.14,0.18,0.24,0.29,0.29,0.32,0.19,0.07,0.09,0.13,0.19,0.1,0.12,0.06,0.07,0.04,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.16,0.1,0
Game		Similarity Score
IND 80, CLE 74	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.43,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.43,0.51,0.51,0.58,0.54,0.46,0.42,0.42,0.4,0.38,0.35,0.3,0.27,0.22,0.23,0.23,0.22,0.25,0.19,0.2,0.2,0.24,0.33,0.32,0.26,0.19,0.12,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.1,0.06,0.05,0.1,0.19,0.22,0.15,0.11,0.23,0.08,0	94.3%
SAC 123, MIL 116	0.5,0.49,0.42,0.43,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.45,0.53,0.55,0.57,0.53,0.51,0.46,0.42,0.38,0.33,0.4,0.31,0.26,0.31,0.34,0.31,0.27,0.22,0.18,0.14,0.14,0.15,0.19,0.21,0.23,0.19,0.13,0.12,0.11,0.13,0.19,0.18,0.1,0.08,0.07,0.08,0.05,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0,0	93.7%
IND 93, MIA 77	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.49,0.47,0.51,0.57,0.62,0.6,0.58,0.57,0.51,0.47,0.47,0.4,0.33,0.3,0.25,0.17,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.23,0.2,0.24,0.24,0.23,0.15,0.09,0.12,0.09,0.08,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.14,0.1,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0	93.6%