NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Dallas Mavericks	110		Excitement	7.9 [246]		MVP	Steve Nash (DAL): +29.1%
Sacramento Kings	102		Comeback	3.2 [239]		LVP	Peja Stojakovic (SAC): -21.9%

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Steve Nash	0.29	0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0,0.01,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.15,0.15,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.22,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.24,0.29,0.29,0.29	0.16	0.13	-0.01	18	77%	0.37	3	-0.08	3	67%	0.00
Raef LaFrentz	0.16	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.07	0.10	0.01	10	70%	0.19	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Wang Zhi-zhi	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Greg Buckner	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.03	-0.01	-0.03	8	50%	0.08	2	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Dirk Nowitzki	-0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02	0.02	-0.01	0.02	15	61%	0.07	3	-0.09	6	100%	0.01
Johnny Newman	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	0.02	4	37%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eduardo Najera	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.00	1	25%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Shawn Bradley	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.02	-0.02	0.01	2	50%	-0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Adrian Griffin	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.02	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Nick Van Exel	-0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.07,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.07,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.14,-0.15	-0.08	-0.10	-0.03	18	46%	-0.05	3	-0.10	5	60%	0.00
Michael Finley	-0.15	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.09	-0.07	-0.00	10	39%	-0.07	1	-0.09	8	87%	0.03

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Vlade Divac	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.01	8	65%	0.04	1	-0.02	7	71%	-0.01
Hedo Turkoglu	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.04,0.04,0,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.05	0.01	0.05	10	65%	0.03	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.00
Mike Bibby	0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.03,0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04	-0.04	0.04	-0.10	-0.02	20	52%	-0.02	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.00
Doug Christie	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.07	-0.03	-0.00	6	50%	0.02	4	-0.12	0	0%	0.00
Bobby Jackson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.06	-0.08	-0.01	7	44%	-0.09	2	-0.05	4	100%	0.03
Chris Webber	0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.08,-0.05,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.16,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22	-0.22	-0.08	-0.14	-0.01	23	42%	-0.20	1	-0.02	6	33%	-0.05
Peja Stojakovic	0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.15,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.2,-0.22	-0.22	-0.15	-0.08	-0.01	19	34%	-0.13	3	-0.09	3	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	544.6	3.4	30.6	19.4	25.3	2.7	35.3	661.3
league avg	46.4	2.2	28.5	14.6	24.5	2.3	30.0	149.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +79.8%

SAC -0.1%

SAC -6.4%

SAC -24.3%

DAL +1.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DAL	SAC	NBA	DAL	SAC	NBA
this game	14.5	13.5	15.6	105.8	100.0	102.3
season	14.8	14.2		109.6	106.6
opponent	15.5	15.5		99.6	105.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DAL	17.3	15.0	12.3	13.4	14.5
SAC	12.0	11.7	14.9	15.4	13.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Nick Van Exel	81	77	0.65	-0.15	0.81	0.18	16	-8	24	13.7	17.3	-3.63	12.8	15.4	-2.56
Dirk Nowitzki	98	97	0.60	-0.10	0.71	0.25	12	-4	16	14.5	14.8	-0.37	13.7	9.8	3.86
Steve Nash	90	89	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.18	11	-3	14	14.3	15.4	-1.01	13.5	13.5	-0.08
Raef LaFrentz	55	57	0.48	0.02	0.47	0.37	4	4	0	16.2	12.6	3.57	14.8	11.8	3.07
Michael Finley	95	92	0.44	0.06	0.38	0.23	7	1	6	14.3	16.2	-1.91	14.0	8.7	5.29
Greg Buckner	52	51	0.18	0.32	-0.13	-0.02	7	1	6	13.5	15.5	-2.04	12.1	14.8	-2.75
Wang Zhi-zhi	1	2	0.07	0.43	-0.37	0.01	2	6	-4	2.0	14.6	-12.60	1.0	13.7	-12.72
Adrian Griffin	9	9	-0.01	0.51	-0.51	0.08	-3	11	-14	18.9	14.1	4.83	13.4	13.5	-0.03
Shawn Bradley	10	8	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	-0.02	0	8	-8	12.8	14.7	-1.86	14.2	13.4	0.85
Eduardo Najera	9	7	-0.14	0.64	-0.78	0.03	-6	14	-20	15.9	14.3	1.54	11.9	13.6	-1.73
Johnny Newman	20	21	-0.26	0.76	-1.03	0.03	-10	18	-28	16.1	14.1	2.00	13.8	13.4	0.37

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Vlade Divac	56	56	-0.05	-0.45	0.39	-0.11	2	-10	12	14.2	12.6	1.61	16.4	12.3	4.07
Hedo Turkoglu	44	48	-0.07	-0.43	0.35	-0.04	-1	-7	6	13.4	13.5	-0.11	14.3	14.6	-0.35
Mike Bibby	86	88	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.32	-2	-6	4	12.7	17.4	-4.63	14.2	16.1	-1.94
Peja Stojakovic	92	92	-0.44	-0.06	-0.39	-0.24	-7	-1	-6	13.6	12.3	1.30	14.4	14.7	-0.30
Chris Webber	95	96	-0.48	-0.02	-0.47	-0.28	-7	-1	-6	13.4	13.9	-0.42	14.3	17.1	-2.86
Bobby Jackson	56	57	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	-0.23	-9	1	-10	14.5	12.2	2.28	14.3	14.7	-0.33
Doug Christie	81	83	-0.58	0.08	-0.65	-0.11	-16	8	-24	13.0	15.5	-2.53	14.0	16.2	-2.20

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.44,0.45,0.47,0.53,0.65,0.6,0.6,0.68,0.75,0.72,0.7,0.71,0.58,0.58,0.68,0.68,0.59,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.5,0.43,0.54,0.58,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.45,0.45,0.41,0.33,0.4,0.46,0.57,0.43,0.38,0.47,0.43,0.29,0.4,0.45,0.21,0.03,0.02,0
Game		Similarity Score
PHI 92, CLE 86	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.45,0.42,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.6,0.7,0.66,0.68,0.7,0.62,0.58,0.61,0.58,0.61,0.65,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.37,0.4,0.48,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.4,0.54,0.38,0.33,0.29,0.42,0.47,0.19,0.2,0.31,0.28,0.16,0.04,0	91.9%
POR 96, UTA 91	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.55,0.55,0.53,0.52,0.57,0.55,0.57,0.57,0.58,0.64,0.65,0.66,0.64,0.64,0.6,0.56,0.58,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.58,0.51,0.57,0.66,0.61,0.48,0.39,0.35,0.29,0.34,0.37,0.33,0.28,0.5,0.43,0.47,0.47,0.37,0.36,0.24,0.27,0.25,0.16,0.06,0,0	91.7%
TOR 89, GSW 82	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.52,0.55,0.53,0.61,0.67,0.73,0.73,0.66,0.74,0.74,0.68,0.67,0.63,0.63,0.58,0.59,0.59,0.54,0.59,0.5,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.51,0.45,0.41,0.52,0.48,0.56,0.56,0.54,0.62,0.63,0.48,0.47,0.36,0.24,0.27,0.19,0.21,0.06,0.04,0	91.6%