NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Charlotte Hornets	110		Excitement	9.6 [70]		MVP	Pat Garrity (ORL): +12.3%
Orlando Magic	100		Comeback	4.2 [213]		LVP	Troy Hudson (ORL): -27.6%

Charlotte Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Baron Davis	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.06,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1	0.03	0.09	0.02	29	50%	0.10	0	0.00	8	75%	0.00
Stacey Augmon	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	-0.04	0.08	-0.01	7	50%	0.10	2	-0.05	4	75%	0.01
Lee Nailon	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.09,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.01	0.00	7	62%	0.06	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.02
David Wesley	0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.05	0.05	-0.01	11	46%	0.06	2	-0.04	4	75%	-0.03
George Lynch	-0.01	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	3	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Robert Traylor	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	4	25%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Elden Campbell	-0.07	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.03	-0.04	0.00	9	56%	0.02	3	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Jamaal Magloire	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.07,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.03	-0.07	-0.01	6	62%	0.00	2	-0.10	12	75%	-0.02
P.J. Brown	-0.12	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.23,-0.26,-0.26,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.00	-0.11	0.00	13	53%	-0.09	1	-0.04	6	83%	-0.01

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Pat Garrity	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.18,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.06	0.07	0.00	9	61%	0.12	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Darrell Armstrong	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.05	-0.01	0.02	13	62%	0.05	1	-0.02	8	87%	0.05
Horace Grant	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.03	-0.02	0.00	8	56%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Jaren Jackson	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Don Reid	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andrew DeClercq	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Monty Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.08,-0.05,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.05	-0.00	-0.02	8	50%	-0.01	2	-0.03	4	50%	-0.03
Tracy McGrady	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,0,0.03,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.02,0.03,0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.1,-0.16,0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.03	-0.05	-0.02	25	56%	0.15	4	-0.22	16	81%	0.02
Patrick Ewing	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.04	-0.03	0.00	3	25%	-0.07	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03
Mike Miller	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24	-0.24	-0.09	-0.15	-0.00	3	0%	-0.17	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Troy Hudson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.05,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.2,-0.2,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.28,-0.28	-0.28	-0.16	-0.14	-0.02	13	30%	-0.19	3	-0.09	4	75%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1	Total
this game	288.0	2.7	33.4	19.5	25.3	2.7	41.0	2.8	21.3	436.6
league avg	46.4	2.2	28.5	14.6	24.5	2.3	30.0	1.7	16.7	149.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHH +35.0%

CHH +6.6%

CHH +16.1%

CHH +4.9%

ORL -12.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHH	ORL	NBA	CHH	ORL	NBA
this game	17.3	14.1	15.6	108.9	99.0	102.3
season	15.9	14.6		102.2	104.6
opponent	15.8	15.6		103.3	101.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
CHH	17.1	16.6	19.4	17.3	15.2	17.3
ORL	14.2	13.4	13.4	16.2	13.5	14.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Charlotte Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Stacey Augmon	64	66	0.99	-0.49	1.48	0.02	33	-23	56	16.7	18.4	-1.60	15.0	12.5	2.46
Jamaal Magloire	59	59	0.88	-0.38	1.25	-0.12	34	-24	58	16.7	18.2	-1.42	15.2	12.7	2.54
Baron Davis	99	98	0.61	-0.11	0.72	0.20	14	-4	18	17.3	17.5	-0.17	14.2	14.0	0.15
Lee Nailon	33	31	0.40	0.10	0.31	-0.33	25	-15	40	16.5	17.8	-1.31	14.9	13.8	1.14
P.J. Brown	69	70	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.32	2	8	-6	17.1	17.9	-0.88	14.6	13.1	1.47
Robert Traylor	19	20	0.18	0.32	-0.15	-0.06	8	2	6	18.2	17.1	1.08	12.8	14.5	-1.62
David Wesley	82	81	0.02	0.48	-0.45	0.46	-15	25	-40	17.6	16.4	1.19	13.8	15.6	-1.87
George Lynch	39	38	-0.42	0.92	-1.33	0.38	-27	37	-64	18.2	16.8	1.46	12.7	15.0	-2.39
Elden Campbell	41	42	-0.54	1.04	-1.59	0.16	-24	34	-58	18.6	16.5	2.10	12.7	15.2	-2.54

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Monty Williams	49	48	0.46	-0.96	1.42	0.25	7	-17	24	13.6	14.7	-1.16	18.4	16.4	1.98
Horace Grant	76	76	0.40	-0.90	1.30	-0.10	17	-27	44	14.2	14.0	0.14	17.8	15.9	1.88
Don Reid	15	15	0.25	-0.75	1.00	0.60	-12	2	-14	14.9	14.0	0.92	16.9	17.4	-0.55
Darrell Armstrong	85	85	0.00	-0.50	0.51	-0.29	10	-20	30	14.2	14.1	0.03	17.8	14.6	3.22
Jaren Jackson	1	1	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.00	0	-10	10	6.0	14.2	-8.23	23.0	17.3	5.72
Andrew DeClercq	7	6	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	0.06	-9	-1	-8	13.0	14.2	-1.23	13.7	17.6	-3.90
Tracy McGrady	95	96	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.29	-1	-9	8	14.3	11.3	2.99	17.6	12.2	5.40
Pat Garrity	78	78	-0.52	0.02	-0.54	-0.90	13	-23	36	13.9	14.9	-0.93	17.9	15.3	2.63
Patrick Ewing	24	23	-0.74	0.24	-0.97	0.06	-27	17	-44	14.4	14.1	0.30	16.3	17.7	-1.39
Mike Miller	18	18	-0.81	0.31	-1.13	-0.02	-27	17	-44	15.1	13.9	1.17	13.9	18.1	-4.20
Troy Hudson	57	59	-1.02	0.52	-1.55	-0.41	-21	11	-32	14.3	14.0	0.30	15.8	19.5	-3.70

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.53,0.54,0.57,0.57,0.64,0.69,0.72,0.71,0.65,0.62,0.58,0.5,0.4,0.27,0.25,0.31,0.27,0.24,0.3,0.34,0.35,0.33,0.39,0.37,0.38,0.45,0.58,0.52,0.54,0.58,0.62,0.73,0.7,0.73,0.75,0.62,0.74,0.53,0.37,0.47,0.36,0.25,0.17,0.25,0.21,0.23,0.42,0.54,0.19,0.29,0.06,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
VAN 112, SAC 108	0.5,0.51,0.45,0.51,0.48,0.52,0.55,0.6,0.63,0.61,0.57,0.54,0.56,0.54,0.6,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.57,0.58,0.49,0.51,0.44,0.49,0.51,0.5,0.57,0.57,0.61,0.61,0.61,0.52,0.52,0.56,0.52,0.53,0.56,0.66,0.57,0.53,0.47,0.32,0.36,0.4,0.4,0.14,0.13,0.33,0.42,0.54,0.25,0.15,0.1,0.08,0	86.2%
WAS 91, MIN 88	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.58,0.58,0.67,0.66,0.63,0.61,0.6,0.55,0.57,0.6,0.63,0.53,0.45,0.42,0.44,0.37,0.28,0.29,0.36,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.5,0.48,0.54,0.58,0.55,0.61,0.59,0.52,0.41,0.34,0.44,0.32,0.38,0.48,0.38,0.43,0.42,0.3,0.29,0.27,0.31,0.22,0.22,0.27,0.46,0.31,0.07,0.15,0.27,0	85.8%
SAS 93, LAL 89	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.54,0.54,0.5,0.47,0.43,0.41,0.41,0.35,0.32,0.34,0.32,0.28,0.28,0.32,0.33,0.24,0.22,0.19,0.18,0.2,0.25,0.36,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.55,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.59,0.63,0.52,0.5,0.62,0.62,0.57,0.42,0.41,0.35,0.23,0.14,0.16,0.23,0.27,0.54,0.61,0.45,0.24,0.1,0	85.3%