NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	104		Excitement	4.0 [983]		MVP	Danny Ferry (SAS): +12.6%
Dallas Mavericks	90		Comeback	1.2 [514]		LVP	Michael Finley (DAL): -17.5%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Danny Ferry	0.13	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.08	0.03	-0.02	8	75%	0.14	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Antonio Daniels	0.07	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.05	0.01	-0.01	10	59%	0.07	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Avery Johnson	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.00	0.02	-0.01	7	43%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shawnelle Scott	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Steve Kerr	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.04	-0.00	0.04	3	83%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Malik Rose	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.10	0.00	-0.09	9	30%	-0.01	2	-0.00	2	100%	0.00
Sean Elliott	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.10	-0.00	0.11	8	81%	-0.00	1	-0.02	5	100%	0.01
Terry Porter	-0.03	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.01	-0.01	0.04	6	67%	0.01	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
David Robinson	-0.05	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.01	7	68%	0.01	4	-0.06	14	64%	-0.00
Samaki Walker	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.10	-0.01	-0.02	3	0%	-0.06	1	-0.02	2	0%	-0.03
Tim Duncan	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.11,-0.12,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.14	-0.01	-0.04	14	51%	0.00	7	-0.11	7	57%	-0.03

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Shawn Bradley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.05	8	39%	0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.00
Steve Nash	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.02	-0.01	-0.04	12	44%	0.01	1	-0.00	1	100%	0.00
Eduardo Najera	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.07	0.00	0.07	7	71%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Wang Zhi-zhi	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dirk Nowitzki	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	-0.00	-0.01	15	44%	-0.01	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Greg Buckner	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.01	-0.00	0.04	7	64%	-0.02	1	-0.01	8	62%	-0.01
Howard Eisley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.02	-0.00	0.05	8	56%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Calvin Booth	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	-0.00	5	20%	-0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Juwan Howard	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.10	-0.02	0.03	12	40%	-0.11	2	-0.04	6	67%	-0.03
Michael Finley	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.17	-0.27	-0.03	-0.12	21	23%	-0.09	5	-0.09	1	0%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	29.3	3.4	32.5	20.7	28.2	2.8	31.0	147.9
league avg	28.8	2.2	28.9	16.6	26.2	2.2	33.1	139.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +45.0%

SAS +9.4%

SAS +7.0%

DAL -9.7%

DAL -1.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	DAL	NBA	SAS	DAL	NBA
this game	16.0	14.3	15.5	109.5	94.7	100.9
season	15.9	15.2		103.4	104.6
opponent	15.3	15.5		101.2	96.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	15.8	13.8	14.5	20.5	16.0
DAL	13.6	15.6	15.5	12.2	14.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tim Duncan	65	64	0.60	-0.10	0.69	-0.23	28	-14	42	14.4	19.5	-5.10	15.0	12.8	2.18
David Robinson	58	59	0.54	-0.04	0.57	-0.02	19	-5	24	16.1	15.9	0.20	15.5	12.2	3.30
Antonio Daniels	65	65	0.43	0.07	0.36	0.02	14	0	14	15.1	18.1	-3.01	15.1	12.6	2.49
Terry Porter	49	50	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.18	8	6	2	16.5	15.5	1.01	14.8	13.7	1.07
Danny Ferry	47	46	0.40	0.10	0.31	-0.04	15	-1	16	16.1	16.0	0.13	14.7	13.9	0.78
Sean Elliott	47	47	0.14	0.36	-0.22	0.17	-1	15	-16	17.1	15.0	2.11	12.6	15.9	-3.36
Avery Johnson	43	43	0.09	0.41	-0.32	-0.15	8	6	2	15.3	16.6	-1.31	13.9	14.6	-0.67
Steve Kerr	40	41	0.07	0.43	-0.35	0.10	-1	15	-16	17.3	15.1	2.26	13.5	14.9	-1.38
Shawnelle Scott	3	2	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.06	-2	16	-18	18.3	16.0	2.37	9.5	14.4	-4.88
Samaki Walker	23	23	-0.04	0.54	-0.59	0.25	-10	24	-34	16.9	15.8	1.09	12.8	14.7	-1.97
Malik Rose	35	35	-0.14	0.64	-0.78	0.10	-8	22	-30	17.1	15.4	1.70	13.1	15.0	-1.93

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Wang Zhi-zhi	11	11	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.26	9	-23	32	10.5	14.8	-4.22	20.6	15.4	5.20
Eduardo Najera	19	20	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.41	14	-28	42	10.4	15.2	-4.88	20.8	14.8	6.03
Greg Buckner	48	47	-0.00	-0.50	0.49	0.05	-2	-12	10	13.2	15.3	-2.07	15.0	17.0	-1.98
Calvin Booth	27	30	-0.14	-0.36	0.23	0.04	-6	-8	2	13.9	14.4	-0.59	16.3	15.9	0.38
Howard Eisley	60	61	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.17	-3	-11	8	13.1	16.2	-3.10	16.8	14.6	2.22
Shawn Bradley	35	33	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	0.23	-18	4	-22	15.1	13.8	1.24	16.5	15.8	0.77
Dirk Nowitzki	58	57	-0.36	-0.14	-0.21	0.02	-13	-1	-12	15.3	12.6	2.75	14.8	17.9	-3.09
Steve Nash	74	73	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	0.15	-19	5	-24	15.1	11.2	3.96	15.2	18.7	-3.44
Michael Finley	80	80	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	0.10	-20	6	-26	14.9	10.7	4.20	15.6	18.5	-2.96
Juwan Howard	63	63	-0.55	0.05	-0.60	-0.20	-12	-2	-10	14.9	13.1	1.73	16.0	16.2	-0.27

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.41,0.4,0.41,0.43,0.39,0.37,0.4,0.38,0.4,0.42,0.38,0.36,0.31,0.4,0.39,0.36,0.31,0.34,0.21,0.3,0.37,0.32,0.26,0.25,0.22,0.16,0.13,0.07,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
LAL 94, MEM 79	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.42,0.44,0.42,0.41,0.39,0.43,0.4,0.47,0.42,0.35,0.38,0.4,0.34,0.38,0.39,0.37,0.36,0.34,0.31,0.27,0.3,0.27,0.31,0.28,0.33,0.22,0.19,0.21,0.07,0.08,0.06,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.5%
IND 84, UTA 60	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.48,0.41,0.37,0.37,0.41,0.37,0.38,0.39,0.45,0.43,0.45,0.45,0.38,0.38,0.37,0.32,0.29,0.25,0.31,0.27,0.33,0.3,0.26,0.23,0.15,0.19,0.12,0.15,0.07,0.09,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.3%
LAC 116, GSW 96	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.5,0.46,0.4,0.4,0.43,0.39,0.38,0.38,0.4,0.4,0.38,0.38,0.4,0.31,0.35,0.35,0.32,0.36,0.31,0.3,0.27,0.3,0.32,0.28,0.18,0.15,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.09,0.08,0.07,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.3%