NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Houston Rockets	103		Excitement	7.2 [375]		MVP	Kenny Thomas (HOU): +14.4%
Denver Nuggets	93		Comeback	5.8 [115]		LVP	Antonio McDyess (DEN): -14.6%

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kenny Thomas	0.14	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.05,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.17,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.02	0.11	-0.02	13	54%	0.16	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.01
Matt Bullard	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.01	0.07	-0.00	6	62%	0.10	1	-0.02	4	75%	0.00
Walt Williams	0.04	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04	0.08	-0.04	-0.00	12	72%	0.11	2	-0.07	8	62%	-0.03
Kelvin Cato	0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.01	0.01	-0.01	6	59%	0.05	1	-0.03	5	80%	0.01
Anthony Miller	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	1	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.04
Moochie Norris	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	2	33%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Cuttino Mobley	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.02,0,0,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07	-0.04	-0.02	0.01	14	45%	-0.02	1	-0.05	5	60%	-0.03
Steve Francis	-0.08	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.18,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.10	-0.01	-0.03	15	41%	0.02	4	-0.10	2	0%	-0.00
Shandon Anderson	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.19,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.12	-0.03	-0.02	11	43%	-0.03	3	-0.10	8	62%	-0.01

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Raef LaFrentz	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.07	0.04	0.01	10	67%	0.11	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Ryan Bowen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.03	0.02	0.00	1	100%	0.05	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Keon Clark	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.00	0.03	-0.00	9	67%	0.12	3	-0.09	3	67%	-0.02
George McCloud	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.03	-0.01	-0.04	14	42%	0.01	0	0.00	3	100%	0.03
Nick Van Exel	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.15,0.17,0.13,0.13,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.01	-0.06	-0.01	25	53%	0.07	3	-0.10	1	100%	0.01
Chris Gatling	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	-0.01	8	33%	-0.05	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
James Posey	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.07	-0.04	-0.04	9	28%	-0.07	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Cory Alexander	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.07	-0.04	0.00	3	0%	-0.08	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Antonio McDyess	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.15	-0.15	-0.10	-0.06	-0.02	10	36%	-0.05	3	-0.10	2	100%	0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.2	2.0	31.3	17.4	29.3	2.4	29.7	134.3
league avg	26.0	2.2	28.8	16.5	26.3	2.2	33.7	137.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

HOU +39.2%

DEN -8.8%

HOU +33.6%

DEN -10.3%

DEN -3.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	HOU	DEN	NBA	HOU	DEN	NBA
this game	15.8	14.5	15.2	109.6	96.9	101.7
season	15.4	14.8		102.4	101.5
opponent	15.0	14.6		103.7	103.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
HOU	13.6	15.2	16.0	18.9	15.8
DEN	14.6	14.8	14.0	14.7	14.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Cuttino Mobley	61	64	0.66	-0.16	0.81	0.28	13	-3	16	16.2	15.1	1.06	14.8	14.0	0.73
Kenny Thomas	60	61	0.46	0.04	0.43	0.23	8	2	6	16.6	14.4	2.19	13.9	15.6	-1.65
Steve Francis	82	85	0.46	0.04	0.42	0.20	9	1	8	16.0	14.5	1.50	14.3	16.0	-1.67
Shandon Anderson	79	82	0.44	0.06	0.38	0.20	8	2	6	16.1	14.2	1.91	14.5	14.6	-0.06
Walt Williams	70	71	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.09	11	-1	12	15.4	16.9	-1.43	14.7	14.0	0.70
Matt Bullard	29	29	0.26	0.24	0.03	0.09	6	4	2	15.4	16.0	-0.52	15.5	14.1	1.38
Moochie Norris	17	16	0.06	0.44	-0.38	0.00	2	8	-6	14.6	16.1	-1.49	14.7	14.5	0.20
Anthony Miller	16	16	-0.03	0.53	-0.57	-0.00	-1	11	-12	14.8	16.0	-1.20	15.1	14.4	0.65
Kelvin Cato	56	56	-0.22	0.72	-0.94	-0.04	-6	16	-22	15.1	16.8	-1.65	14.3	14.9	-0.61

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ryan Bowen	18	18	0.30	-0.80	1.09	0.09	7	-17	24	15.3	14.3	1.00	14.1	16.2	-2.17
Chris Gatling	35	32	-0.08	-0.42	0.35	-0.11	1	-11	12	14.5	14.5	-0.06	14.1	16.7	-2.60
Keon Clark	47	44	-0.18	-0.32	0.15	-0.18	0	-10	10	14.0	15.0	-0.98	15.3	16.2	-0.88
Cory Alexander	28	26	-0.25	-0.25	-0.01	-0.11	-5	-5	0	15.1	14.3	0.78	14.8	16.2	-1.33
Raef LaFrentz	60	62	-0.31	-0.19	-0.11	-0.16	-5	-5	0	14.7	14.3	0.39	16.5	14.6	1.89
George McCloud	79	78	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.09	-9	-1	-8	14.4	15.2	-0.80	16.0	14.8	1.20
Nick Van Exel	89	87	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.21	-9	-1	-8	14.7	12.0	2.72	15.9	14.1	1.80
James Posey	57	57	-0.57	0.07	-0.64	-0.19	-13	3	-16	13.7	15.7	-2.06	16.6	14.6	2.00
Antonio McDyess	67	66	-0.59	0.09	-0.68	-0.09	-17	7	-24	14.9	13.6	1.34	16.1	15.1	1.00

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.55,0.48,0.4,0.34,0.32,0.3,0.31,0.36,0.4,0.35,0.44,0.4,0.45,0.4,0.4,0.37,0.32,0.41,0.31,0.36,0.39,0.33,0.29,0.34,0.42,0.52,0.48,0.63,0.65,0.78,0.83,0.71,0.7,0.66,0.62,0.52,0.52,0.63,0.64,0.59,0.33,0.25,0.19,0.04,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
GSW 113, CHA 103	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.5,0.41,0.37,0.43,0.39,0.42,0.47,0.42,0.38,0.48,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.33,0.33,0.3,0.27,0.36,0.29,0.23,0.33,0.33,0.35,0.42,0.48,0.61,0.67,0.74,0.8,0.73,0.7,0.71,0.6,0.7,0.62,0.57,0.58,0.63,0.69,0.65,0.39,0.32,0.1,0.03,0,0	92.5%
UTA 101, MIL 99	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.52,0.46,0.39,0.43,0.36,0.34,0.26,0.29,0.27,0.3,0.22,0.22,0.25,0.31,0.36,0.39,0.36,0.39,0.33,0.3,0.27,0.33,0.38,0.49,0.45,0.58,0.67,0.68,0.68,0.82,0.8,0.7,0.79,0.62,0.7,0.57,0.52,0.58,0.64,0.59,0.33,0.2,0.05,0.03,0.16,0	91.8%
NOP 104, UTA 94	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.55,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.43,0.49,0.45,0.49,0.46,0.43,0.42,0.42,0.47,0.49,0.39,0.41,0.47,0.39,0.46,0.44,0.46,0.5,0.43,0.34,0.42,0.52,0.48,0.52,0.62,0.67,0.63,0.77,0.75,0.74,0.66,0.57,0.53,0.63,0.59,0.59,0.46,0.19,0.04,0.02,0,0	91.3%