NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Seattle SuperSonics	97		Excitement	6.3 [552]		MVP	Brent Barry (SEA): +24.6%
Denver Nuggets	105		Comeback	3.6 [239]		LVP	Antonio McDyess (DEN): -13.8%

Seattle SuperSonics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Brent Barry	0.25	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25	0.11	0.12	-0.01	15	67%	0.26	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Rashard Lewis	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06	0.02	0.01	-0.02	11	57%	0.06	1	-0.00	1	100%	0.01
Vin Baker	0.02	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	-0.01	-0.02	9	50%	0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Gary Payton	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.01	-0.02	0.01	26	51%	-0.01	1	-0.01	7	71%	-0.02
Horace Grant	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.00	-0.02	0.02	7	43%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jelani McCoy	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	-0.00	0	0%	0.00	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Ruben Patterson	-0.13	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.10	-0.04	-0.01	10	43%	-0.00	4	-0.13	3	67%	-0.00
Shammond Williams	-0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.12	-0.03	-0.01	8	33%	-0.12	1	-0.02	8	62%	0.00

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
George McCloud	0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.14	0.14	0.09	0.05	0.00	12	74%	0.18	2	-0.04	3	67%	-0.00
Raef LaFrentz	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.00	0.06	-0.03	13	50%	0.09	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.01
Keon Clark	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.05	0.02	0.04	8	62%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
James Posey	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.05	-0.02	-0.01	13	63%	0.10	2	-0.07	4	75%	-0.01
Chris Herren	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.00	0.03	0.00	2	75%	0.07	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Ryan Bowen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.02	0.01	-0.01	7	43%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Chris Gatling	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	3	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nick Van Exel	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.11	0.03	-0.06	18	41%	0.01	2	-0.04	8	75%	-0.02
Popeye Jones	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.07	-0.00	-0.01	4	25%	-0.03	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Antonio McDyess	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.14	-0.14	-0.15	-0.02	-0.03	12	29%	-0.14	0	0.00	10	60%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.5	2.3	26.4	15.7	22.7	2.0	34.3	125.9
league avg	26.0	2.2	28.8	16.5	26.3	2.2	33.7	137.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +18.2%

DEN +0.4%

DEN +36.3%

SEA -6.1%

DEN +1.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SEA	DEN	NBA	SEA	DEN	NBA
this game	14.8	16.1	15.2	105.4	111.7	101.7
season	14.9	14.8		103.5	101.5
opponent	15.0	15.4		103.7	102.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SEA	11.4	18.8	16.9	13.2	14.8
DEN	15.7	15.5	17.4	16.1	16.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Seattle SuperSonics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jelani McCoy	26	26	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.03	-5	-3	-2	14.0	15.1	-1.14	18.4	15.3	3.11
Shammond Williams	34	34	-0.23	-0.27	0.05	-0.20	-1	-7	6	12.8	16.0	-3.25	13.5	17.6	-4.09
Horace Grant	78	81	-0.24	-0.26	0.01	-0.24	0	-8	8	14.0	19.3	-5.27	15.8	18.2	-2.43
Brent Barry	78	80	-0.30	-0.20	-0.11	-0.19	-4	-4	0	15.2	12.4	2.82	16.1	16.5	-0.42
Vin Baker	50	50	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.07	-8	0	-8	17.0	12.2	4.79	15.8	16.5	-0.64
Rashard Lewis	45	46	-0.38	-0.12	-0.25	-0.17	-7	-1	-6	13.6	16.0	-2.38	16.3	16.0	0.24
Ruben Patterson	66	68	-0.38	-0.12	-0.27	-0.12	-9	1	-10	16.3	11.0	5.32	17.3	13.1	4.23
Gary Payton	83	85	-0.48	-0.02	-0.45	-0.30	-6	-2	-4	14.4	18.6	-4.15	16.0	17.0	-0.95

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ryan Bowen	29	29	0.54	-0.04	0.58	0.01	18	-10	28	18.4	15.1	3.24	16.3	14.1	2.13
Keon Clark	38	38	0.48	0.02	0.46	0.13	12	-4	16	18.0	14.9	3.12	14.7	14.9	-0.22
Chris Herren	34	33	0.29	0.21	0.07	0.08	7	1	6	15.0	16.8	-1.83	13.2	15.7	-2.55
George McCloud	71	70	0.28	0.22	0.07	0.34	-2	10	-12	15.3	18.9	-3.62	14.6	15.5	-0.96
Antonio McDyess	70	68	0.26	0.24	0.01	0.20	2	6	-4	15.8	17.0	-1.21	14.5	15.6	-1.10
James Posey	80	77	0.23	0.27	-0.04	0.17	2	6	-4	16.3	14.9	1.42	15.1	13.1	2.01
Raef LaFrentz	43	44	0.23	0.27	-0.04	0.08	5	3	2	16.7	15.7	0.99	16.3	13.5	2.84
Chris Gatling	11	10	0.21	0.29	-0.08	-0.03	8	0	8	14.1	16.4	-2.32	19.6	14.2	5.37
Nick Van Exel	75	73	0.17	0.33	-0.16	0.23	-2	10	-12	15.7	18.0	-2.33	14.1	17.4	-3.28
Popeye Jones	19	18	-0.18	0.68	-0.87	0.11	-10	18	-28	16.5	16.1	0.42	12.8	15.3	-2.53

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.55,0.57,0.57,0.53,0.47,0.43,0.36,0.3,0.3,0.27,0.24,0.26,0.3,0.29,0.23,0.23,0.26,0.26,0.27,0.34,0.36,0.33,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.61,0.45,0.45,0.55,0.52,0.55,0.6,0.52,0.52,0.62,0.62,0.66,0.8,0.91,0.9,0.88,0.93,0.93,0.99,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
CHI 93, DEN 112	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.5,0.44,0.39,0.35,0.36,0.35,0.31,0.26,0.29,0.26,0.26,0.22,0.25,0.25,0.24,0.26,0.25,0.26,0.33,0.41,0.41,0.46,0.38,0.42,0.49,0.55,0.48,0.48,0.59,0.48,0.52,0.6,0.52,0.66,0.66,0.85,0.91,0.96,0.96,0.98,1,1,1,1,1,1	93.7%
NYK 95, MIA 109	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.5,0.53,0.44,0.35,0.34,0.32,0.26,0.24,0.29,0.32,0.38,0.34,0.27,0.35,0.35,0.35,0.39,0.39,0.28,0.3,0.37,0.42,0.37,0.45,0.42,0.58,0.61,0.58,0.62,0.65,0.59,0.56,0.48,0.62,0.66,0.71,0.79,0.77,0.87,0.88,0.93,0.99,1,1,1,1	93.0%
BKN 89, TOR 105	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.48,0.41,0.44,0.38,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.35,0.29,0.34,0.34,0.32,0.32,0.29,0.35,0.34,0.36,0.38,0.46,0.46,0.49,0.5,0.46,0.45,0.45,0.39,0.48,0.58,0.65,0.62,0.56,0.67,0.64,0.62,0.7,0.79,0.86,0.85,0.86,0.91,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	92.7%