NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Boston Celtics	84		Excitement	4.2 [955]		MVP	Ray Allen (MIL): +15.4%
Milwaukee Bucks	99		Comeback	1.0 [1025]		LVP	Paul Pierce (BOS): -10.6%

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dana Barros	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.07	0.00	0.03	7	79%	0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Kenny Anderson	0.00	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	12	42%	0.01	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Doug Overton	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eric Williams	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.03	-0.01	-0.04	12	48%	0.03	1	-0.03	5	80%	0.01
Tony Battie	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Calbert Cheaney	-0.03	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Walter McCarty	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Danny Fortson	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	0.00	0.02	4	57%	-0.02	1	-0.02	6	67%	-0.02
Adrian Griffin	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.05	-0.03	0.00	2	50%	-0.01	2	-0.06	2	50%	-0.02
Antoine Walker	-0.09	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.04	-0.00	0.05	14	61%	0.01	5	-0.09	8	75%	-0.00
Vitaly Potapenko	-0.09	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.08	-0.01	-0.00	3	37%	-0.01	3	-0.07	2	50%	-0.01
Paul Pierce	-0.11	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.12	-0.00	-0.02	16	35%	-0.06	2	-0.04	5	80%	-0.01

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ray Allen	0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.15	0.02	0.02	20	67%	0.15	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Darvin Ham	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.00	-0.00	-0.02	3	60%	0.01	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.01
Sam Cassell	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	0.01	0.01	16	56%	0.03	2	-0.03	7	86%	-0.00
Ervin Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.06	0.01	-0.04	3	60%	0.03	3	-0.04	4	50%	-0.02
Danny Manning	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.01	-0.00	0.03	6	50%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rafer Alston	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	3	33%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Tim Thomas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.05	-0.00	-0.02	12	39%	-0.03	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
Scott Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Glenn Robinson	0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.06	0.00	-0.01	16	50%	0.03	4	-0.09	2	50%	-0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.3	1.5	24.6	15.4	28.9	0.3	26.8	122.8
league avg	26.0	2.2	28.8	16.5	26.3	2.2	33.7	137.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL +24.9%

MIL +1.1%

MIL +3.1%

MIL +18.3%

MIL +2.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	BOS	MIL	NBA	BOS	MIL	NBA
this game	15.9	14.8	15.2	89.4	106.5	101.7
season	14.7	14.9		102.4	105.5
opponent	15.4	15.1		105.1	103.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
BOS	14.8	16.8	15.4	17.0	15.9
MIL	12.9	14.5	15.9	16.4	14.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Walter McCarty	10	9	0.03	-0.53	0.56	-0.14	6	-21	27	17.0	15.8	1.18	14.3	14.9	-0.57
Dana Barros	26	25	0.03	-0.53	0.55	-0.24	9	-24	33	15.1	16.3	-1.20	14.7	14.9	-0.18
Tony Battie	19	20	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.06	2	-17	19	13.8	16.5	-2.70	13.8	15.1	-1.34
Doug Overton	4	3	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	0.01	-1	-14	13	10.0	16.2	-6.21	14.0	14.9	-0.88
Danny Fortson	46	44	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	-0.09	2	-17	19	16.1	15.8	0.36	15.9	13.9	2.01
Adrian Griffin	20	21	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	-0.19	5	-20	25	14.9	16.2	-1.27	16.2	14.4	1.79
Calbert Cheaney	28	29	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	0.09	-11	-4	-7	16.2	15.8	0.43	14.7	14.9	-0.28
Eric Williams	56	56	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.11	-5	-10	5	15.8	16.1	-0.31	15.1	14.5	0.60
Vitaly Potapenko	45	46	-0.43	-0.07	-0.35	0.01	-15	0	-15	16.1	15.8	0.23	13.9	15.7	-1.81
Paul Pierce	91	89	-0.47	-0.03	-0.43	-0.03	-15	0	-15	16.0	15.7	0.29	14.9	14.7	0.10
Kenny Anderson	61	61	-0.51	0.01	-0.51	0.20	-24	9	-33	16.8	14.4	2.44	14.7	15.1	-0.37
Antoine Walker	64	62	-0.58	0.08	-0.66	0.24	-28	13	-41	16.4	15.0	1.39	14.8	14.9	-0.13

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Sam Cassell	71	70	0.61	-0.11	0.72	-0.09	24	-9	33	15.4	13.2	2.18	16.5	14.4	2.05
Ervin Johnson	65	64	0.49	0.01	0.49	-0.09	20	-5	25	14.8	15.1	-0.32	15.7	16.5	-0.81
Ray Allen	85	85	0.41	0.09	0.33	0.06	12	3	9	14.7	16.2	-1.53	15.5	20.4	-4.97
Glenn Robinson	63	62	0.39	0.11	0.27	0.09	10	5	5	14.3	15.9	-1.60	15.7	16.5	-0.84
Darvin Ham	40	40	0.33	0.17	0.17	-0.11	15	0	15	14.3	15.3	-1.01	15.8	16.0	-0.17
Danny Manning	38	40	0.27	0.23	0.05	-0.05	11	4	7	15.6	14.3	1.28	16.9	15.2	1.70
Tim Thomas	49	51	0.09	0.41	-0.32	0.15	-2	17	-19	15.4	14.2	1.27	16.0	15.9	0.03
Scott Williams	28	29	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	0.19	-7	22	-29	15.1	14.8	0.32	16.3	15.8	0.48
Rafer Alston	26	29	-0.08	0.58	-0.67	0.15	-8	23	-31	13.8	15.3	-1.50	15.7	16.1	-0.37

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.55,0.58,0.53,0.59,0.6,0.65,0.7,0.65,0.63,0.68,0.58,0.65,0.62,0.62,0.64,0.6,0.67,0.67,0.7,0.76,0.8,0.87,0.8,0.84,0.84,0.84,0.85,0.76,0.79,0.87,0.94,0.95,0.96,0.95,0.9,0.9,0.89,0.93,0.87,0.9,0.96,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
OKC 88, ORL 111	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.52,0.54,0.65,0.7,0.69,0.7,0.69,0.64,0.65,0.62,0.68,0.67,0.6,0.65,0.61,0.68,0.76,0.8,0.81,0.73,0.8,0.81,0.8,0.73,0.76,0.73,0.84,0.93,0.95,0.96,0.94,0.88,0.87,0.92,0.86,0.89,0.95,0.94,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.9%
CHA 83, ORL 97	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.53,0.51,0.58,0.57,0.57,0.64,0.63,0.67,0.6,0.62,0.63,0.6,0.66,0.62,0.62,0.67,0.7,0.75,0.74,0.8,0.85,0.8,0.86,0.84,0.77,0.78,0.78,0.86,0.87,0.85,0.9,0.87,0.91,0.92,0.92,0.97,0.97,0.96,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.6%
DET 84, CLE 102	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.56,0.61,0.62,0.61,0.61,0.65,0.62,0.58,0.63,0.62,0.6,0.53,0.53,0.63,0.63,0.64,0.69,0.72,0.75,0.73,0.82,0.86,0.84,0.78,0.78,0.84,0.82,0.89,0.92,0.92,0.89,0.93,0.94,0.92,0.93,0.92,0.91,0.95,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.5%