NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Oklahoma City Thunder	88		Excitement	4.6 [923]		MVP	Dwight Howard (ORL): +18.8%
Orlando Magic	111		Comeback	1.1 [1124]		LVP	Kevin Durant (OKC): -13.6%

Oklahoma City Thunder
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Daequan Cook	0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.13,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.08	0.01	-0.03	10	65%	0.13	1	-0.00	3	33%	-0.03
James Harden	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.03	0.03	-0.06	13	53%	0.12	1	-0.00	4	75%	-0.01
Royal Ivey	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Cole Aldrich	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.02	0	0%	0.00	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Thabo Sefolosha	-0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	-0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Serge Ibaka	-0.04	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.00	-0.00	6	36%	-0.02	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Nick Collison	-0.04	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	8	40%	-0.02	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.01
Eric Maynor	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	0.00	-0.01	7	21%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Russell Westbrook	-0.11	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.13,-0.12,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.03	-0.02	0.06	19	42%	-0.09	1	-0.02	5	80%	-0.01
Kevin Durant	-0.14	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.07,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.10	-0.03	0.00	22	43%	-0.05	4	-0.08	10	70%	-0.01

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dwight Howard	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.08,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.14,0.14,0.15,0.18,0.18,0.2,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.19	0.20	0.05	0.06	20	77%	0.29	5	-0.10	12	67%	-0.01
JJ Redick	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.09	0.03	0.01	12	62%	0.11	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Jason Richardson	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.11	0.01	0.02	12	71%	0.11	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Hedo Turkoglu	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.05	-0.00	0.01	5	70%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jameer Nelson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.04	0.00	0.02	11	58%	0.05	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.00
Ryan Anderson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	1	50%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Quentin Richardson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Earl Clark	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.08	0.01	-0.04	4	19%	-0.03	0	0.00	8	37%	-0.03
Brandon Bass	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.01	-0.01	0.03	5	60%	-0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Gilbert Arenas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.12	0.01	-0.05	11	25%	-0.04	2	-0.02	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	29.2	3.5	36.8	18.0	27.4	3.5	32.6	150.9
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.4	27.2	2.4	33.9	140.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL +42.0%

ORL +7.4%

ORL +1.5%

ORL +2.9%

OKC -3.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	OKC	ORL	NBA	OKC	ORL	NBA
this game	16.6	14.7	15.5	95.7	120.7	105.7
season	15.0	15.2		108.8	106.3
opponent	16.2	15.6		101.1	105.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
OKC	16.3	17.0	14.9	18.5	16.6
ORL	14.3	14.3	15.1	15.0	14.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Oklahoma City Thunder
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Cole Aldrich	31	32	0.14	-0.64	0.79	-0.15	10	-33	43	14.0	18.0	-3.92	15.1	14.5	0.60
Eric Maynor	39	39	0.03	-0.53	0.55	-0.06	3	-26	29	16.2	17.0	-0.83	15.5	14.0	1.50
Royal Ivey	5	5	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.06	-2	-21	19	22.2	16.3	5.89	19.2	14.4	4.79
Daequan Cook	56	57	-0.18	-0.32	0.13	0.17	-12	-11	-1	16.2	17.2	-0.97	14.6	14.8	-0.16
Thabo Sefolosha	44	43	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.01	-10	-13	3	17.1	16.2	0.84	15.7	13.8	1.88
James Harden	70	71	-0.32	-0.18	-0.15	0.09	-14	-9	-5	16.0	18.5	-2.46	14.2	16.1	-1.90
Serge Ibaka	33	33	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	0.15	-17	-6	-11	18.5	15.6	2.94	15.2	14.4	0.89
Nick Collison	48	46	-0.49	-0.01	-0.47	0.30	-27	4	-31	17.9	15.3	2.60	14.3	15.0	-0.65
Kevin Durant	81	81	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	0.09	-20	-3	-17	16.3	19.0	-2.69	14.1	19.0	-4.91
Russell Westbrook	53	53	-0.53	0.03	-0.55	0.24	-26	3	-29	17.0	16.2	0.83	14.0	15.5	-1.50

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Hedo Turkoglu	66	68	0.60	-0.10	0.71	-0.39	34	-11	45	15.2	13.3	1.85	18.3	11.9	6.38
Jameer Nelson	57	58	0.56	-0.06	0.63	-0.34	31	-8	39	15.0	14.2	0.81	17.6	15.0	2.54
Dwight Howard	83	83	0.52	-0.02	0.54	-0.15	23	0	23	14.3	18.6	-4.30	16.4	18.8	-2.38
Jason Richardson	76	76	0.43	0.07	0.36	-0.22	22	1	21	14.4	15.9	-1.53	16.5	17.4	-0.90
Brandon Bass	22	25	0.22	0.28	-0.06	-0.07	10	13	-3	15.8	14.3	1.50	18.1	16.1	1.99
JJ Redick	64	62	0.18	0.32	-0.14	-0.08	9	14	-5	14.5	15.0	-0.42	16.1	17.7	-1.64
Earl Clark	43	41	0.06	0.44	-0.38	0.21	-5	28	-33	14.6	14.7	-0.09	15.3	17.7	-2.41
Quentin Richardson	7	6	0.01	0.49	-0.49	0.01	0	23	-23	10.7	15.0	-4.29	11.5	17.0	-5.49
Ryan Anderson	7	7	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	0.01	-1	24	-25	19.4	14.3	5.15	16.7	16.6	0.09
Gilbert Arenas	35	34	-0.06	0.56	-0.63	0.17	-8	31	-39	14.2	15.0	-0.81	15.0	17.6	-2.54

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.52,0.54,0.65,0.7,0.69,0.7,0.69,0.64,0.65,0.62,0.68,0.67,0.6,0.65,0.61,0.68,0.76,0.8,0.81,0.73,0.8,0.81,0.8,0.73,0.76,0.73,0.84,0.93,0.95,0.96,0.94,0.88,0.87,0.92,0.86,0.89,0.95,0.94,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
BOS 100, MEM 117	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.55,0.49,0.52,0.56,0.65,0.63,0.68,0.65,0.63,0.68,0.68,0.6,0.64,0.62,0.6,0.67,0.64,0.64,0.71,0.77,0.77,0.75,0.86,0.77,0.72,0.75,0.77,0.81,0.92,0.91,0.96,0.93,0.94,0.85,0.92,0.93,0.88,0.89,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.4%
BOS 84, MIL 99	0.5,0.49,0.55,0.58,0.53,0.59,0.6,0.65,0.7,0.65,0.63,0.68,0.58,0.65,0.62,0.62,0.64,0.6,0.67,0.67,0.7,0.76,0.8,0.87,0.8,0.84,0.84,0.84,0.85,0.76,0.79,0.87,0.94,0.95,0.96,0.95,0.9,0.9,0.89,0.93,0.87,0.9,0.96,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	95.9%
CHA 80, MIA 99	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.56,0.58,0.63,0.57,0.6,0.65,0.65,0.68,0.63,0.64,0.64,0.71,0.69,0.67,0.68,0.69,0.73,0.71,0.77,0.75,0.8,0.79,0.82,0.78,0.83,0.79,0.79,0.86,0.91,0.85,0.86,0.87,0.92,0.84,0.86,0.89,0.9,0.97,0.98,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.2%