NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	69		Excitement	4.9 [825]		MVP	Chucky Atkins (ORL): +8.7%
Orlando Magic	94		Comeback	2.7 [330]		LVP	Alonzo Mourning (MIA): -20.3%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Otis Thorpe	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.00	-0.01	-0.01	7	43%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rodney Buford	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mark Strickland	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Harold Jamison	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.06	0.00	-0.06	1	17%	0.00	0	0.00	4	25%	0.00
P.J. Brown	-0.00	0,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	-0.00	12	50%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Bruce Bowen	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.04	0.00	-0.03	4	22%	-0.02	0	0.00	1	0%	0.00
Clar. Weatherspoon	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	5	50%	-0.00	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Anthony Carter	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.00	5	40%	-0.02	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Dan Majerle	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.11	-0.01	-0.05	7	13%	-0.07	1	0.00	1	0%	-0.01
Jamal Mashburn	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.09	-0.07	-0.03	10	45%	-0.04	4	-0.09	2	50%	-0.02
Tim Hardaway	-0.17	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.12	-0.05	-0.00	14	40%	-0.06	4	-0.11	2	50%	-0.02
Alonzo Mourning	-0.20	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.18,-0.18,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2	-0.14	-0.06	0.00	10	44%	-0.11	3	-0.09	12	50%	-0.09

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chucky Atkins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.1,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.10	0.00	0.02	13	67%	0.09	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Pat Garrity	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.02	0.02	-0.03	10	41%	0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Monty Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.01	-0.00	0.01	4	69%	0.02	1	-0.02	5	60%	-0.00
Ben Wallace	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.01	5	60%	0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Corey Maggette	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.01	4	55%	-0.01	2	-0.02	3	67%	-0.01
John Amaechi	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	9	48%	-0.01	1	-0.03	3	67%	-0.01
Bo Outlaw	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	0	100%	0.01	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Michael Doleac	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.06	-0.00	-0.01	9	33%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Darrell Armstrong	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,-0.01,0.03,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.06	-0.03	0.02	13	62%	0.08	7	-0.18	0	0%	0.00
Ron Mercer	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.16,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.08	-0.04	-0.01	11	40%	-0.04	2	-0.07	3	67%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	30.1	2.7	33.3	19.7	31.3	3.4	29.2	149.7
league avg	26.0	2.2	28.8	16.5	26.3	2.2	33.7	137.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL +32.9%

ORL +16.5%

ORL +5.3%

MIA -3.4%

MIA -1.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	ORL	NBA	MIA	ORL	NBA
this game	17.2	15.0	15.2	76.7	105.6	101.7
season	15.7	13.6		101.2	100.4
opponent	15.4	15.9		99.3	98.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	16.3	15.2	16.3	23.0	17.2
ORL	14.4	15.5	11.4	20.7	15.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mark Strickland	7	7	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.12	-4	-21	17	19.1	17.0	2.13	21.0	14.5	6.52
Harold Jamison	6	6	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.03	-1	-24	23	19.8	17.0	2.85	19.2	14.7	4.48
Rodney Buford	8	8	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.18	-6	-19	13	19.5	17.0	2.55	21.6	14.3	7.29
Anthony Carter	37	37	-0.01	-0.49	0.49	0.32	-11	-14	3	16.3	17.8	-1.54	16.1	14.2	1.87
Bruce Bowen	32	30	-0.13	-0.37	0.25	0.14	-9	-16	7	17.1	17.2	-0.18	15.6	14.7	0.87
Clar. Weatherspoon	27	27	-0.26	-0.24	-0.01	0.01	-9	-16	7	16.9	17.3	-0.36	13.6	15.6	-1.95
Otis Thorpe	28	27	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	0.06	-11	-14	3	17.4	17.1	0.31	14.1	15.4	-1.31
Alonzo Mourning	58	58	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	0.24	-18	-7	-11	17.3	17.0	0.28	15.3	14.4	0.92
P.J. Brown	54	52	-0.34	-0.16	-0.19	-0.08	-9	-16	7	16.2	18.6	-2.34	13.8	16.7	-2.93
Jamal Mashburn	72	73	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	0.14	-17	-8	-9	16.6	19.4	-2.76	14.2	18.4	-4.20
Dan Majerle	61	61	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	0.03	-14	-11	-3	18.3	14.9	3.42	15.2	14.5	0.71
Tim Hardaway	60	59	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.00	-16	-9	-7	17.3	16.9	0.37	14.5	16.0	-1.53

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ron Mercer	52	50	0.36	0.14	0.22	0.07	10	15	-5	13.7	16.7	-2.98	17.3	17.0	0.23
Michael Doleac	49	47	0.32	0.18	0.14	-0.21	18	7	11	15.9	13.8	2.07	18.1	16.2	1.90
Darrell Armstrong	53	55	0.31	0.19	0.11	0.07	8	17	-9	13.3	17.5	-4.22	16.0	19.0	-3.03
Chucky Atkins	42	44	0.28	0.22	0.05	-0.31	20	5	15	17.2	13.0	4.17	17.7	16.7	1.03
Ben Wallace	50	49	0.26	0.24	0.03	0.09	6	19	-13	12.8	17.7	-4.90	16.2	18.3	-2.09
Pat Garrity	41	43	0.26	0.24	0.03	-0.32	20	5	15	17.6	12.7	4.86	17.7	16.7	0.95
Bo Outlaw	43	44	0.22	0.28	-0.06	0.10	4	21	-17	12.8	17.0	-4.25	15.9	18.4	-2.44
Monty Williams	41	38	0.21	0.29	-0.08	-0.32	18	7	11	16.9	13.4	3.50	19.8	15.3	4.47
Corey Maggette	37	40	0.14	0.36	-0.22	-0.30	15	10	5	16.7	13.7	2.98	17.0	17.3	-0.23
John Amaechi	37	40	0.14	0.36	-0.22	-0.04	6	19	-13	14.2	15.6	-1.41	16.7	17.6	-0.86

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.5,0.52,0.45,0.53,0.43,0.4,0.34,0.38,0.37,0.4,0.36,0.34,0.29,0.35,0.39,0.42,0.41,0.46,0.49,0.46,0.5,0.49,0.59,0.67,0.58,0.58,0.65,0.78,0.72,0.79,0.91,0.82,0.87,0.92,0.96,0.96,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
SAS 126, NOP 140	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.45,0.5,0.53,0.45,0.51,0.41,0.38,0.38,0.3,0.32,0.3,0.33,0.29,0.31,0.37,0.39,0.34,0.31,0.4,0.54,0.59,0.5,0.55,0.69,0.67,0.58,0.64,0.62,0.72,0.76,0.88,0.87,0.9,0.9,0.93,0.96,0.95,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.3%
ATL 93, CHA 108	0.5,0.49,0.5,0.45,0.51,0.52,0.5,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.45,0.34,0.36,0.34,0.38,0.29,0.29,0.31,0.37,0.34,0.34,0.39,0.39,0.42,0.54,0.54,0.55,0.65,0.64,0.61,0.55,0.58,0.68,0.72,0.73,0.84,0.79,0.85,0.81,0.86,0.93,0.97,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.2%
LAL 100, IND 110	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.5,0.49,0.44,0.45,0.45,0.35,0.37,0.31,0.3,0.34,0.34,0.28,0.32,0.33,0.41,0.39,0.46,0.44,0.44,0.46,0.54,0.49,0.52,0.46,0.55,0.58,0.54,0.62,0.68,0.78,0.85,0.84,0.79,0.92,0.94,0.98,0.89,0.96,0.99,0.98,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.0%