NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	68		Excitement	9.1 [108]		MVP	Hersey Hawkins (CHI): +18.6%
Chicago Bulls	70		Comeback	1.8 [428]		LVP	Nick Van Exel (DEN): -33.5%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Keon Clark	0.00	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0	0.01	0.02	0.02	14	55%	0.05	1	-0.05	5	40%	-0.06
Ryan Bowen	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0	50%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Chris Herren	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Gatling	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.05,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.14,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.08	-0.02	-0.00	8	50%	0.01	4	-0.12	4	100%	0.05
James Posey	-0.11	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.13	-0.01	-0.03	6	6%	-0.11	0	0.00	4	25%	-0.04
Antonio McDyess	-0.15	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.08,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.22,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.14	-0.02	-0.02	10	42%	0.02	5	-0.17	4	50%	-0.01
Raef LaFrentz	-0.25	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.08,-0.13,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25	-0.12	-0.13	0.00	10	37%	-0.14	3	-0.11	4	25%	-0.10
George McCloud	-0.27	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.21,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27	-0.13	-0.14	0.00	11	29%	-0.12	3	-0.15	2	100%	0.03
Nick Van Exel	-0.33	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.2,-0.2,-0.28,-0.28,-0.28,-0.21,-0.33	-0.20	-0.16	-0.02	14	37%	-0.01	7	-0.32	4	75%	0.01

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Hersey Hawkins	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,0.1,0.19	0.19	-0.04	0.22	-0.01	6	37%	0.19	0	0.00	4	100%	0.13
Will Perdue	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Fred Hoiberg	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.15,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	9	52%	0.09	2	-0.12	3	100%	0.02
Matt Maloney	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.05	-0.02	0.00	4	25%	-0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Chris Anstey	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.07	-0.02	0.00	9	22%	-0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Metta World Peace	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.06,0,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.05,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.07	-0.03	0.01	14	47%	-0.03	3	-0.09	4	0%	-0.10
Elton Brand	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.13	-0.13	-0.06	-0.09	-0.01	24	46%	-0.09	1	-0.04	9	67%	-0.03
Chris Carr	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.19,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.11	-0.04	-0.01	5	17%	-0.06	2	-0.08	2	100%	0.05
Randy Brown	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.18	-0.10	-0.08	-0.01	5	21%	-0.12	1	-0.05	4	75%	-0.01
Dickey Simpkins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.13,-0.13,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.18	-0.08	-0.11	0.00	3	12%	-0.12	1	-0.07	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.2	2.4	26.5	15.7	28.2	2.3	34.3	132.6
league avg	26.0	2.2	28.8	16.5	26.3	2.2	33.7	137.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN -13.0%

CHI +34.6%

DEN -19.4%

CHI +46.4%

CHI +1.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	CHI	NBA	DEN	CHI	NBA
this game	15.0	15.0	15.2	70.8	72.9	101.7
season	14.8	16.5		101.5	91.8
opponent	14.9	15.0		102.3	103.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	14.9	16.4	13.2	15.8	15.0
CHI	15.1	14.3	15.6	14.8	15.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chris Gatling	39	38	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	-0.04	-1	-1	0	15.3	14.8	0.49	14.5	15.3	-0.80
Chris Herren	6	8	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	0.03	-5	3	-8	18.7	14.8	3.87	14.0	15.0	-1.05
George McCloud	61	64	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.30	5	-7	12	15.4	14.5	0.87	14.5	15.8	-1.28
Antonio McDyess	58	59	-0.24	-0.26	0.01	-0.21	-1	-1	0	15.4	14.5	0.94	15.6	14.0	1.56
James Posey	50	48	-0.24	-0.26	0.01	-0.21	-1	-1	0	14.3	15.8	-1.51	15.1	14.8	0.33
Ryan Bowen	17	16	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.10	-9	7	-16	14.1	15.2	-1.12	17.1	14.5	2.52
Nick Van Exel	90	88	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.48	3	-5	8	14.8	18.7	-3.87	15.0	14.0	1.05
Raef LaFrentz	80	80	-0.43	-0.07	-0.35	-0.46	1	-3	4	15.3	13.7	1.55	14.3	18.4	-4.10
Keon Clark	79	79	-0.51	0.01	-0.51	-0.45	-2	0	-2	14.8	16.3	-1.52	15.3	13.6	1.66

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Fred Hoiberg	56	56	0.62	-0.12	0.74	0.41	7	-5	12	14.6	15.4	-0.84	15.7	14.0	1.70
Dickey Simpkins	58	57	0.56	-0.06	0.63	0.36	7	-5	12	15.1	14.8	0.28	16.5	13.0	3.48
Elton Brand	78	78	0.53	-0.03	0.56	0.32	7	-5	12	14.9	15.2	-0.32	15.5	12.9	2.65
Randy Brown	62	63	0.42	0.08	0.33	0.47	-2	4	-6	15.2	14.5	0.71	14.6	15.8	-1.23
Hersey Hawkins	56	56	0.36	0.14	0.21	0.47	-4	6	-10	15.4	14.4	0.96	14.6	15.7	-1.09
Chris Anstey	42	43	0.12	0.38	-0.26	0.18	-2	4	-6	14.7	15.2	-0.52	13.7	16.1	-2.35
Matt Maloney	34	33	0.08	0.42	-0.33	-0.03	4	-2	6	14.5	15.2	-0.71	15.8	14.6	1.23
Metta World Peace	64	63	0.05	0.45	-0.40	0.02	1	1	0	15.0	14.8	0.17	14.7	15.8	-1.09
Chris Carr	20	21	-0.05	0.55	-0.59	-0.05	0	2	-2	15.3	14.9	0.43	13.9	15.4	-1.46
Will Perdue	10	10	-0.19	0.69	-0.88	0.04	-8	10	-18	14.7	15.0	-0.29	12.0	15.4	-3.40

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.42,0.4,0.39,0.39,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.49,0.45,0.47,0.5,0.53,0.56,0.62,0.62,0.6,0.68,0.68,0.71,0.58,0.66,0.59,0.5,0.58,0.66,0.64,0.61,0.61,0.65,0.59,0.48,0.56,0.56,0.44,0.5,0.52,0.53,0.38,0.58,0.59,0.53,0.61,0.68,0.72,0.78,0.84,1
Game		Similarity Score
CHI 93, DEN 101	0.5,0.51,0.5,0.49,0.5,0.52,0.47,0.45,0.47,0.45,0.48,0.47,0.49,0.54,0.55,0.53,0.55,0.56,0.58,0.63,0.64,0.64,0.64,0.72,0.65,0.58,0.65,0.72,0.75,0.7,0.75,0.71,0.59,0.59,0.59,0.49,0.44,0.5,0.66,0.57,0.53,0.58,0.64,0.65,0.67,0.61,0.72,0.97,0.98,1	92.6%
CLE 88, MIN 94	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.46,0.46,0.43,0.47,0.47,0.53,0.55,0.53,0.53,0.54,0.54,0.58,0.53,0.62,0.62,0.65,0.74,0.77,0.78,0.69,0.67,0.7,0.67,0.69,0.69,0.64,0.67,0.55,0.58,0.55,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.48,0.54,0.52,0.43,0.29,0.47,0.53,0.4,0.34,0.55,0.79,0.86,0.96,1	91.9%
DET 97, HOU 99	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.43,0.39,0.42,0.41,0.37,0.43,0.43,0.4,0.44,0.52,0.51,0.53,0.55,0.6,0.61,0.63,0.56,0.59,0.56,0.54,0.61,0.75,0.62,0.57,0.67,0.58,0.64,0.65,0.55,0.48,0.37,0.44,0.37,0.34,0.38,0.38,0.37,0.49,0.59,0.4,0.6,0.81,0.66,0.78,0.73,1	91.8%