NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Minnesota Timberwolves	109		Excitement	9.0 [117]		MVP	Paul Pierce (BOS): +44.0%
Boston Celtics	106		Comeback	3.2 [252]		LVP	Terrell Brandon (MIN): -28.8%

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Anthony Peeler	0.41	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.41	0.05	0.35	-0.00	13	57%	0.41	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.03
Kevin Garnett	0.29	0,0,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0,0,0,0.07,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.17,0.18,0.18,0.12,0.29	0.09	0.21	0.01	23	71%	0.50	6	-0.22	10	80%	0.08
Malik Sealy	0.12	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12	0.06	0.07	0.01	10	73%	0.16	2	-0.04	13	100%	0.13
Dean Garrett	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.04	0.01	0.00	2	100%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tom Hammonds	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.01	0.02	0.00	2	67%	0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Rasho Nesterovic	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Sam Mitchell	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bobby Jackson	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.01	-0.04	0.00	5	40%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joe Smith	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.05	-0.03	-0.01	7	33%	-0.07	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Wally Szczerbiak	-0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.09	-0.05	0.00	5	20%	-0.07	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Terrell Brandon	-0.29	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.29,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.18,-0.29,-0.29	-0.19	-0.09	0.00	13	35%	-0.08	7	-0.21	0	0%	0.00

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Paul Pierce	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,0.01,0.05,0.01,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.17,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.44	0.44	0.08	0.33	-0.02	14	74%	0.57	3	-0.13	6	83%	0.03
Dana Barros	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.03	0.03	-0.01	4	80%	0.09	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.00
Danny Fortson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.04	0.00	0.00	2	100%	0.04	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Tony Battie	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.01	0.04	0.00	4	56%	0.06	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.01
Doug Overton	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Adrian Griffin	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Vitaly Potapenko	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.02	-0.03	0.02	13	60%	0.08	2	-0.11	4	50%	-0.03
Calbert Cheaney	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	0.00	4	25%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Eric Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.1	-0.10	0.02	-0.12	0.00	5	58%	-0.10	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Antoine Walker	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.13,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.14,-0.19,-0.11,-0.11,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.31,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.16	0.05	0.00	21	44%	0.06	5	-0.16	8	50%	-0.02
Kenny Anderson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0,0,-0.07,-0.14,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	0.02	-0.11	0.01	9	64%	-0.01	2	-0.10	4	75%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.4	2.3	31.5	15.8	30.7	2.4	37.1	143.2
league avg	26.0	2.2	28.8	16.5	26.3	2.2	33.7	137.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

BOS -7.6%

MIN +32.7%

MIN +20.7%

MIN +3.8%

MIN +0.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIN	BOS	NBA	MIN	BOS	NBA
this game	14.6	14.8	15.2	111.2	108.2	101.7
season	15.1	14.7		103.5	102.4
opponent	15.1	15.7		103.3	101.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIN	14.0	14.8	13.0	16.9	14.6
BOS	12.7	15.2	15.8	15.9	14.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kevin Garnett	86	86	0.75	-0.25	1.01	0.40	12	-9	21	14.8	13.2	1.59	15.3	11.1	4.27
Terrell Brandon	70	70	0.64	-0.14	0.78	0.49	5	-2	7	14.0	16.0	-1.96	14.2	16.5	-2.34
Anthony Peeler	56	56	0.55	-0.05	0.59	0.46	3	0	3	14.7	14.4	0.23	15.0	14.6	0.40
Malik Sealy	80	78	0.49	0.01	0.47	0.46	1	2	-1	14.8	13.4	1.37	14.6	15.6	-1.03
Joe Smith	53	55	0.28	0.22	0.05	0.28	0	3	-3	13.3	16.0	-2.70	15.1	14.5	0.52
Dean Garrett	30	28	0.12	0.38	-0.27	-0.00	4	-1	5	13.2	15.2	-1.96	15.4	14.6	0.74
Wally Szczerbiak	50	53	0.04	0.46	-0.43	-0.11	5	-2	7	13.9	15.2	-1.35	15.3	14.2	1.12
Bobby Jackson	29	30	-0.05	0.55	-0.60	0.01	-2	5	-7	15.7	14.1	1.55	15.8	14.4	1.35
Sam Mitchell	10	9	-0.07	0.57	-0.63	0.02	-3	6	-9	15.3	14.5	0.82	12.6	15.1	-2.50
Rasho Nesterovic	14	15	-0.11	0.61	-0.73	0.09	-7	10	-17	15.2	14.5	0.76	10.1	15.7	-5.54
Tom Hammonds	12	10	-0.12	0.62	-0.74	-0.03	-3	6	-9	21.9	13.5	8.38	16.5	14.6	1.86

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Doug Overton	3	5	0.04	-0.54	0.58	-0.05	3	-6	9	14.3	14.8	-0.51	10.0	14.8	-4.81
Eric Williams	44	47	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	-0.13	4	-7	11	15.4	14.4	0.97	14.4	14.7	-0.34
Vitaly Potapenko	61	60	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	-0.19	5	-8	13	15.6	13.5	2.11	14.5	14.7	-0.16
Danny Fortson	17	16	-0.08	-0.42	0.35	-0.02	-2	-1	-1	15.4	14.7	0.64	13.0	14.9	-1.87
Calbert Cheaney	47	44	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	0.06	-6	3	-9	14.5	15.1	-0.65	14.4	14.7	-0.28
Dana Barros	28	26	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	-0.05	-4	1	-5	14.6	14.9	-0.26	14.6	14.5	0.07
Tony Battie	38	38	-0.20	-0.30	0.11	-0.20	0	-3	3	13.2	15.9	-2.68	14.8	14.4	0.42
Adrian Griffin	28	28	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.18	-5	2	-7	15.1	14.7	0.34	13.9	14.8	-0.94
Kenny Anderson	71	71	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.45	1	-4	5	14.7	15.1	-0.39	14.3	15.1	-0.81
Paul Pierce	73	73	-0.49	-0.01	-0.49	-0.44	-2	-1	-1	14.8	14.8	-0.02	15.5	11.7	3.81
Antoine Walker	80	82	-0.69	0.19	-0.87	-0.42	-9	6	-15	14.9	14.6	0.33	14.8	13.4	1.42

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.42,0.51,0.52,0.47,0.49,0.45,0.42,0.35,0.41,0.46,0.48,0.46,0.49,0.51,0.5,0.51,0.52,0.45,0.36,0.42,0.38,0.55,0.59,0.42,0.56,0.6,0.7,0.66,0.66,0.62,0.53,0.64,0.76,0.46,0.31,0.22,0.15,0.73,0
Game		Similarity Score
PHI 101, NYK 97	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.54,0.48,0.44,0.44,0.47,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.47,0.44,0.4,0.45,0.45,0.47,0.49,0.42,0.44,0.34,0.39,0.33,0.39,0.39,0.46,0.38,0.43,0.45,0.45,0.43,0.48,0.52,0.55,0.48,0.56,0.52,0.58,0.58,0.57,0.52,0.53,0.59,0.46,0.39,0.47,0.21,0.23,0.41,0	90.7%
PHI 118, CHA 114	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.54,0.51,0.46,0.38,0.4,0.43,0.41,0.4,0.45,0.46,0.48,0.47,0.51,0.49,0.42,0.35,0.3,0.34,0.41,0.39,0.39,0.36,0.46,0.45,0.46,0.48,0.49,0.52,0.42,0.35,0.34,0.44,0.56,0.68,0.66,0.62,0.53,0.52,0.58,0.59,0.65,0.54,0.31,0.21,0.22,0.37,0	90.6%
OKC 122, GSW 121	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.4,0.38,0.4,0.41,0.53,0.47,0.45,0.51,0.46,0.43,0.4,0.38,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.52,0.51,0.51,0.44,0.44,0.42,0.38,0.34,0.36,0.39,0.39,0.42,0.41,0.48,0.63,0.52,0.52,0.74,0.62,0.48,0.58,0.77,0.69,0.65,0.47,0.19,0.28,0.43,0.69,0	90.2%