NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	96		Excitement	9.5 [84]		MVP	Erick Strickland (DAL): +100.7%
Dallas Mavericks	97		Comeback	63.9 [12]		LVP	Greg Buckner (DAL): -36.6%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tim Duncan	0.18	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.01,-0.02,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,-0.09,-0.09,0.18	0.05	0.14	0.01	11	74%	0.33	3	-0.15	13	77%	0.00
Malik Rose	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.04	0.02	0.00	4	75%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jaren Jackson	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.03	-0.03	0.00	3	86%	0.04	1	-0.04	1	100%	0.01
Sean Elliott	-0.00	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	2	50%	0.01	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Mario Elie	-0.01	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01	-0.05	0.01	-0.02	9	45%	0.02	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.02
Jerome Kersey	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.02	-0.00	6	50%	0.02	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Samaki Walker	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	0	50%	-0.02	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.02
Antonio Daniels	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.04	-0.02	0.00	2	33%	-0.05	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.00
David Robinson	-0.09	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.02,-0.01,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.08,0.17,0.06,-0.09	-0.00	-0.07	0.01	17	65%	0.08	5	-0.17	12	83%	0.09
Avery Johnson	-0.13	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.08	-0.04	0.00	10	36%	-0.03	2	-0.10	2	100%	0.01

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Erick Strickland	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.11,0.11,0.11,1.01	1.01	0.03	0.96	-0.02	14	50%	1.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Finley	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.48	0.48	0.12	0.37	0.01	17	71%	0.52	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Steve Nash	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	-0.00	0.03	-0.01	9	50%	0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Hubert Davis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	-0.00	-0.00	4	62%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Sean Rooks	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.02	0.01	0.03	8	53%	0.00	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Shawn Bradley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.01	-0.00	0.01	7	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Cedric Ceballos	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.09	-0.00	-0.02	7	19%	-0.07	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Dirk Nowitzki	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.24	-0.24	-0.02	-0.22	0.01	10	48%	-0.24	0	0.00	7	100%	0.05
Greg Buckner	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.1,0.08,-0.18,-0.37	-0.37	-0.06	-0.31	0.00	13	43%	-0.12	2	-0.25	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.2	2.4	27.6	16.3	26.5	2.3	31.4	129.8
league avg	26.0	2.2	28.8	16.5	26.3	2.2	33.7	137.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +77.8%

SAS -30.3%

SAS -19.7%

DAL +26.1%

SAS -3.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	DAL	NBA	SAS	DAL	NBA
this game	15.8	16.9	15.2	107.9	111.5	101.7
season	15.5	14.8		101.6	104.2
opponent	14.8	15.4		104.6	95.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	15.3	13.6	14.7	20.1	15.8
DAL	15.3	19.1	16.6	16.8	16.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
David Robinson	67	67	0.36	-0.86	1.23	0.07	10	-11	21	16.1	14.9	1.20	17.1	16.4	0.69
Jaren Jackson	29	28	0.19	-0.69	0.87	0.01	6	-7	13	16.7	15.4	1.26	17.3	16.7	0.58
Jerome Kersey	34	34	0.01	-0.51	0.52	-0.05	2	-3	5	13.4	17.3	-3.83	16.4	17.3	-0.95
Sean Elliott	34	32	-0.00	-0.50	0.49	0.08	-3	2	-5	15.3	16.1	-0.79	17.5	16.6	0.95
Samaki Walker	15	14	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	0.08	-7	6	-13	11.8	16.6	-4.82	13.1	17.7	-4.60
Antonio Daniels	42	42	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.60	13	-14	27	16.5	15.2	1.26	17.3	16.6	0.64
Tim Duncan	72	71	-0.56	0.06	-0.62	-0.44	-4	3	-7	16.5	13.1	3.40	17.2	15.6	1.60
Mario Elie	70	68	-0.60	0.10	-0.70	-0.42	-6	5	-11	16.4	13.6	2.77	17.0	16.5	0.52
Malik Rose	23	22	-0.63	0.13	-0.75	-0.65	1	-2	3	16.1	15.7	0.43	18.0	16.6	1.37
Avery Johnson	59	57	-0.93	0.43	-1.36	-0.43	-17	16	-33	15.6	16.2	-0.54	16.4	18.0	-1.63

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Erick Strickland	73	74	0.82	-0.32	1.14	0.38	15	-14	29	16.4	19.5	-3.06	15.9	15.3	0.65
Steve Nash	73	75	0.68	-0.18	0.85	0.47	7	-6	13	16.9	16.9	0.09	16.3	13.4	2.82
Dirk Nowitzki	46	51	0.65	-0.15	0.80	0.48	6	-5	11	16.9	17.0	-0.04	17.1	14.1	2.97
Michael Finley	83	85	0.60	-0.10	0.69	0.42	6	-5	11	16.8	19.5	-2.69	15.8	16.7	-0.99
Greg Buckner	39	39	0.54	-0.04	0.58	0.54	0	1	-1	17.0	16.9	0.17	14.8	16.6	-1.76
Shawn Bradley	43	44	-0.07	0.57	-0.64	-0.16	3	-2	5	17.9	16.0	1.98	15.5	16.1	-0.57
Hubert Davis	23	23	-0.13	0.63	-0.76	0.07	-7	8	-15	18.9	16.2	2.64	16.9	15.4	1.43
Sean Rooks	37	37	-0.18	0.68	-0.85	-0.00	-6	7	-13	15.2	18.2	-2.94	14.6	16.7	-2.08
Cedric Ceballos	18	17	-0.41	0.91	-1.32	0.15	-19	20	-39	17.9	16.7	1.21	14.0	16.2	-2.24

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.52,0.54,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.53,0.49,0.4,0.44,0.38,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.2,0.12,0.15,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.09,0.11,0.16,0.22,0.15,0.19,0.18,0.17,0.19,0.31,0.26,0.25,0.3,0.34,0.57,0.53,0.53,0.41,0.41,0.6,0.55,0.37,0.57,0.42,1
Game		Similarity Score
DET 87, NOH 95	0.5,0.49,0.55,0.55,0.49,0.51,0.47,0.45,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.42,0.39,0.43,0.49,0.36,0.28,0.35,0.26,0.21,0.17,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.17,0.16,0.19,0.14,0.22,0.24,0.21,0.26,0.26,0.35,0.27,0.19,0.32,0.38,0.34,0.43,0.48,0.53,0.47,0.35,0.47,0.38,0.45,0.57,0.92,1	90.2%
BOS 86, NYK 89	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.54,0.53,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.45,0.47,0.36,0.3,0.26,0.24,0.21,0.23,0.2,0.18,0.25,0.2,0.17,0.17,0.16,0.1,0.16,0.14,0.15,0.17,0.24,0.32,0.32,0.44,0.37,0.22,0.19,0.26,0.26,0.3,0.38,0.37,0.47,0.41,0.4,0.47,0.36,0.45,0.58,1	90.1%
DAL 108, LAL 112	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.47,0.46,0.47,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.47,0.53,0.49,0.5,0.56,0.46,0.38,0.33,0.29,0.21,0.21,0.18,0.23,0.17,0.25,0.22,0.21,0.23,0.25,0.36,0.33,0.26,0.25,0.19,0.26,0.23,0.25,0.22,0.3,0.25,0.38,0.37,0.41,0.35,0.33,0.31,0.45,0.55,0.28,1	89.3%