NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Phoenix Suns	102		Excitement	8.2 [221]		MVP	Vince Carter (TOR): +30.8%
Toronto Raptors	103		Comeback	2.9 [412]		LVP	Tracy McGrady (TOR): -20.3%

Phoenix Suns
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Anfernee Hardaway	0.14	0,0,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.14,0.14	0.12	0.03	0.01	17	68%	0.19	1	-0.05	7	71%	-0.00
Shawn Marion	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.04	-0.01	0.00	7	62%	0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Rodney Rogers	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.16,0.16,-0.04	0.14	-0.18	0.01	15	80%	0.38	3	-0.42	5	80%	-0.01
Rex Chapman	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	2	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Randy Livingston	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	0.00	3	33%	-0.01	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Luc Longley	-0.10	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.01	-0.01	3	33%	-0.01	4	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Tom Gugliotta	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.07	-0.05	-0.01	8	50%	-0.01	3	-0.10	6	83%	0.02
Clifford Robinson	-0.12	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.11	-0.01	-0.01	12	39%	-0.05	2	-0.07	7	57%	-0.02
Jason Kidd	-0.16	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.16,-0.16	-0.10	-0.07	-0.01	6	56%	0.00	5	-0.16	4	75%	-0.05

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Vince Carter	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.04,-0.02,0.03,0.04,0.1,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.15,0.15,0.19,0.2,0.25,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.27,0.21,0.18,0.28,0.33,0.26,0.26,0.24,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.21,0.22,0.31	0.31	0.14	0.17	0.00	32	66%	0.46	5	-0.15	13	100%	0.06
John Thomas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.05	0.01	0.00	2	100%	0.06	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Antonio Davis	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.04	0.03	-0.01	5	50%	0.02	1	-0.02	8	87%	0.05
Kevin Willis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.03	0.01	-0.01	7	45%	-0.01	0	0.00	6	83%	0.02
Muggsy Bogues	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Dell Curry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	3	33%	-0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Dee Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.08	-0.01	-0.02	5	0%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Charles Oakley	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.07	-0.03	0.00	6	50%	-0.02	4	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Doug Christie	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.18	-0.18	-0.08	-0.10	0.00	5	42%	-0.07	3	-0.10	2	100%	0.02
Tracy McGrady	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.2,-0.2	-0.20	-0.12	-0.09	-0.00	10	47%	-0.05	3	-0.15	12	75%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.3	2.4	28.4	18.6	28.5	3.3	46.5	154.9
league avg	26.0	2.2	28.8	16.5	26.3	2.2	33.7	137.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

PHX -35.2%

TOR +34.5%

TOR +31.2%

TOR +15.6%

TOR +3.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	PHX	TOR	NBA	PHX	TOR	NBA
this game	13.9	15.1	15.2	104.1	103.0	101.7
season	14.8	15.5		101.4	101.8
opponent	14.9	15.3		102.1	96.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
PHX	14.7	14.5	12.1	14.5	13.9
TOR	13.0	16.8	16.0	14.9	15.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Phoenix Suns
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Shawn Marion	47	46	0.09	-0.59	0.67	-0.03	4	-5	9	12.2	15.5	-3.28	16.1	14.3	1.83
Luc Longley	36	36	0.04	-0.54	0.58	-0.05	3	-4	7	15.2	13.2	2.03	15.5	15.0	0.52
Randy Livingston	15	16	0.01	-0.51	0.52	0.01	0	-1	1	14.5	13.8	0.70	17.0	14.8	2.21
Rex Chapman	22	21	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	-0.13	0	-1	1	14.4	13.8	0.55	17.7	14.5	3.26
Tom Gugliotta	77	80	-0.36	-0.14	-0.23	-0.42	2	-3	5	13.7	14.7	-0.99	14.7	17.0	-2.39
Rodney Rogers	73	76	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.45	-1	0	-1	13.2	16.2	-3.04	15.5	14.1	1.39
Jason Kidd	83	84	-0.51	0.01	-0.52	-0.48	-1	0	-1	13.8	14.5	-0.70	14.8	17.0	-2.21
Anfernee Hardaway	87	89	-0.53	0.03	-0.56	-0.44	-3	2	-5	13.9	14.1	-0.17	14.9	16.8	-1.89
Clifford Robinson	50	52	-0.63	0.13	-0.75	-0.36	-9	8	-17	15.9	11.9	4.04	13.6	16.8	-3.22

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Vince Carter	90	88	0.69	-0.19	0.87	0.54	5	-4	9	14.8	18.0	-3.18	14.4	10.1	4.28
Antonio Davis	73	72	0.64	-0.14	0.79	0.56	3	-2	5	14.8	16.2	-1.43	15.1	10.7	4.42
Doug Christie	68	68	0.51	-0.01	0.52	0.51	0	1	-1	14.8	15.9	-1.17	14.4	12.9	1.55
Muggsy Bogues	22	23	0.25	0.25	-0.01	0.10	5	-4	9	17.7	14.4	3.26	14.9	13.7	1.22
Kevin Willis	41	39	0.19	0.31	-0.12	0.25	-2	3	-5	17.2	13.7	3.52	12.1	15.2	-3.09
Charles Oakley	57	57	0.15	0.35	-0.21	0.18	-1	2	-3	13.6	17.2	-3.67	15.1	12.3	2.75
Tracy McGrady	76	73	0.10	0.40	-0.29	0.31	-7	8	-15	14.6	16.9	-2.34	13.5	15.4	-1.91
Dell Curry	23	23	0.02	0.48	-0.46	0.02	0	1	-1	16.8	14.6	2.19	14.5	13.8	0.70
John Thomas	29	28	0.02	0.48	-0.46	-0.04	2	-1	3	16.3	14.7	1.60	11.2	15.0	-3.86
Dee Brown	21	19	-0.07	0.57	-0.64	-0.07	0	1	-1	15.2	15.1	0.12	10.3	14.8	-4.49

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.44,0.43,0.45,0.48,0.55,0.59,0.57,0.61,0.63,0.65,0.64,0.65,0.66,0.69,0.67,0.67,0.58,0.57,0.56,0.59,0.64,0.67,0.73,0.67,0.69,0.66,0.58,0.61,0.61,0.62,0.65,0.66,0.56,0.44,0.4,0.38,0.34,0.47,0.62,0.68,0.83,0.88,0.87,0.9,0.95,0.97,0.85,1
Game		Similarity Score
MEM 97, PHX 99	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.44,0.49,0.57,0.66,0.68,0.7,0.68,0.66,0.7,0.67,0.56,0.62,0.67,0.65,0.61,0.66,0.69,0.69,0.67,0.61,0.58,0.6,0.63,0.58,0.48,0.55,0.55,0.59,0.69,0.59,0.44,0.44,0.5,0.34,0.33,0.42,0.58,0.79,0.8,0.91,0.89,0.89,0.94,0.96,1	92.9%
NYK 88, MEM 101	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.57,0.56,0.62,0.59,0.61,0.63,0.6,0.58,0.6,0.65,0.68,0.6,0.62,0.67,0.69,0.76,0.71,0.8,0.69,0.64,0.64,0.67,0.65,0.63,0.67,0.58,0.61,0.58,0.59,0.52,0.59,0.37,0.4,0.42,0.38,0.62,0.67,0.68,0.74,0.85,0.93,0.99,1,1,1,1	92.3%
LAC 100, TOR 106	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.55,0.6,0.62,0.68,0.68,0.67,0.68,0.73,0.67,0.68,0.65,0.62,0.66,0.64,0.73,0.69,0.66,0.73,0.69,0.71,0.72,0.75,0.73,0.66,0.6,0.61,0.61,0.55,0.62,0.59,0.54,0.56,0.52,0.4,0.42,0.52,0.53,0.62,0.73,0.74,0.91,0.94,0.95,0.97,0.99,1,1	92.2%